Positive start of the week on Asian price lists. Tokyo rises (+0,6%), driven by growth in exports (+15%) and imports (+17,8%), in line with forecasts. Seoul gains 0,3% and Mumbai 0,5%. Sydney also did well (+0,6%).
The Chinese Stock Exchanges are more lively: Hong Kong +0,8%, Shanghai +0,7%. Traders are once again hoping for Chinese stocks to be admitted to the Morgan Stanley Capital Index, which could trigger a buying trend in investment funds.
Brent oil was down 0,3% to $47,2 a barrel. Gold down slightly, on the lows of the last three weeks, at 1.252 dollars. Futures signal a positive start for European markets.
MACRON WINS BUT NOT TRIUMPH
The pound was weak this morning (1,2769 against the dollar -0,1%). London is once again in the news for yet another attack, this time against Islam, right on Brexit d-Day. Today, in fact, there will be the formal start of negotiations on the conditions for the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union.
In a few hours, the British minister David Davis and the head of the European delegation Michel Barnier will meet in Brussels. The status of European citizens in the United Kingdom (and of the British in Europe), territorial issues (Gibraltar and the borders between the two Irelands) but also the financial cost of divorce for London are under discussion.
The Commission allegedly quantified the amount requested from Great Britain at 86,4 billion euro for the commitments already undertaken plus 11,5 billion for guarantees on the funds destined for Ukraine and Ireland plus another 1,7 billion for additional expenses already agreed. In all, 99,6 billion spread over time. A difficult negotiation looms that could weigh on the pound.
Meanwhile, Emmanuel Macron has conquered, as expected, a solid parliamentary majority (351 out of 577 deputies) in an election dominated by the high rate of abstentions (56%). In second place are the republicans, with around a hundred elected, followed by socialists and the radical left. The Front National stops at six seats, but Marie Le Pen enters the Assemblée Nationale.
THE EU RAISES BARRIERS AGAINST BUSINESS SHOPPING
Europe in the spotlight also for the summit, set for Thursday, of the 27 heads of state of the Eurozone. The meeting will also be dedicated to the Macron plan, which provides for the introduction of some measures to defend European companies against purchases from other countries (see China). France can count on the support of Germany and Italy; other countries, such as Holland, are decidedly against it. On the macro front, the most important appointment will fall on Friday, the date of the publication of the PMI indices of the Eurozone.
VENETIAN BANKS, THE TREASURY ENROLLS ROTHSCHILD
“We are no longer in a recession, Italy is growing”, Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan reiterated yesterday, emphasizing that the crisis has cost an annual loss of ten points of GDP.
But the crisis of the Veneto banks still holds the table. Last Friday, the government gave the green light to the six-monthly extension for those credit institutions that requested state intervention, with an eye in particular on the repayment of the 150 million Veneto Banca bond due (of which 85 to be repaid). Wednesday 21 June. The European Commission released a note on Saturday to approve the government's intervention in the matter, an assent that could anticipate the definitive go-ahead for the bailout. But first we need to find someone who feels like putting in 1,2 billion euros. The Mef clarified that the intervention will only be "voluntary" and the solution will arrive "shortly".
Meanwhile, Rotchschild has been entrusted with the role of advisor. The investment bank will have to manage the search for potentially available private subjects and the opening of a data room to which potential candidates for intervention will be able to access, under confidentiality constraints. The advisor will have to find, in a short time, buyers for some assets of Popolare Vicenza and Veneto Banca. Among these, the Turin-based Banca Intermobiliare, Banca Apulia and the Sicilian Banca Nuova as well as the shares held in Arca by the two institutions. The amounts collected will serve to reduce the amount, 1,25 billion of private contribution requested by the ECB before giving the green light to the public intervention.
Both Fortress and Elliott (which Italfondiario depends on) have withdrawn from the negotiation on the securitization of Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena's NPLs. Only the Atlante 2 fund remains on the field.
NASDAQ BUBBLE RISK. THE FED EXPLAINS THE INCREASES
In the United States, in addition to the now heated tensions over Russiagate, the spotlight will focus on the performance of the Faangs, i.e. Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google, the stocks that have been the protagonists of the rally in recent months, smelling of a financial bubble after the of prices in the last week which coincided with the increase in US rates.
In this context, the parade of Fed governors begins to explain the reasons for the increase in the cost of money, decided by the Central Bank despite the recovery in inflation. The first to take the field tonight will be William Dudley, governor of the most important central bank, that of New York.
THE DUEL BETWEEN AMAZON AND WAL-MART CONTINUES. BOEING CHALLENGES PARIS
Great expectations on Wall Street for the duel between Amazon and Wal-Mart for control of US trade, after the raid by Jeff Bezos' company (which jumped to first place in the ranking of the rich with assets exceeding 80 billion) on the Whole Foods chain (420 supermarkets between the USA, Canada and the United Kingdom): 14 billion to make a big splash in the supermarket sector by invading the hunting ground of the giant in large-scale distribution which entered the online business a year ago with the purchase of Jet.com (worth 3 billion ). On Friday, Wall Street rewarded Amazion (+2,44%) and punished Wal-Mart (-4%).
In the meantime, the duel between Boeing, which will present the 737 Max, and the A 321 Airbus Neo, which has ensured the European group the leadership in small jets, will take place today at the Paris Air Show. Boeing arrives at the appointment after obtaining a 12 billion dollar order from Qatar.
Great attention during the week also for Fedex accounts due out on Tuesday. The logistics giant is a precious indicator of the trend of the US economy. Not only that: Fedex could play a strategic role in the infrastructure plan that Trump promises to present in the coming days.
TODAY EXOR AND POSTE DIVIDEND DISCONNECT
In Piazza Affari, attention to Fiat Chrysler after the statements by Sergio Marchionne. The manager announced that he is preparing the new production plan for the 2018-2020 period, which he will leave as a legacy to his successor, who will be "an insider, not a superstar who comes from outside".
Today Exor will detach the dividend (0,35 euro). Incoming coupon also for other securities. In the Ftse Mib basket: Poste Italiane (0,39 euros), Telecom Italia resp (0275), Terna (0,1339 as the balance on a total of 0,206 euros). In the rest of the price list: Acea (0,62 euro). Autogrill (0,16), Hera (0,09), Iren (0,0625).
