After Black Monday, today was a volatile Tuesday European lists which, after various ups and downs, closed with a gain. Madrid is the best (+0,89%), while Paris and Frankfurt follow with an increase of 0,7%. Slightly above parity (+0,16%) Amsterdam. London runs outside the EU (+1,02%).
He helped dictate moods Wall Street, returning from an extraordinary final recovery in the session on the eve, but today again nervous and down at the opening. On the other hand, the problems seen yesterday remain on the table: the risk of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine match; the recovery showing signs of slowing down, in a context of sustained inflation; the resulting behavior of central banks, with the Fed due to update its view tomorrow at the end of the two-day meeting. L'Vix index on volatility, it closed yesterday around 30, after reaching 38,94 points, the highest level since November 2020, against a historical average of around 19,5; now, it stands at around 33.
The dizzying rise in US stock prices on Monday was probably due to investors who, in the end, thought they were doing good business by buying on sale. But is this attitude likely to last in an environment where the Fed intends to turn off the taps and is preparing for three, or perhaps more, rate hikes? Since the lows of March 2020, those who have had the courage to buy have seen the value of their shares double, but today new uncertainties are looming and primarily concern the Federal Reserve and how aggressively it will have to tighten its monetary policy this year, a potential war between Russia and Ukraine, and disappointing corporate earnings, while the last quarter numbers of major US companies are being released.
Thus, while waiting to hear Jerome Powell, the stock exchanges are uncertain and the government bonds with stars and stripes are not moved much. Prices go down and yields go up, but moderately. The 1,748-year Treasury shows a rate of +0,73 (up XNUMX%).
Among raw material oil restarts and oil stocks are invigorating: Brent +1,33%, 87,42 dollars a barrel; Wti +1,4%, 84,47 dollars a barrel.
suffers theeuro against the dollar, with the cross retreating to the 1,127 area.
Piazza Affari hits a rebound
Piazza Affari, after the 4% loss suffered in the first session of the week, today recovers 0,22%, enough to bring it back over 26 thousand, to 26.028 basis points. Back on the shields i oil stocks: Tenaris +4,62%; Eni +3,22%; Saipem +3,5%. Even the great ones raise their glasses high banks, Unicredit +2,55% and Intesa +0,91%, while Banco Bpm suffers -1,06%. Between utility A2a stands out, +1,99% and in the automotive sector Ferrari +1,29% and Pirelli +1,84% rebound. However, they aggravate the balance of losses stellantis -1,11% and Iveco -2,87%.
Unipol +1,08% and Buzzi +0,86% did well.
The heaviest markdown is for Leonardo -5,7%, alarmed by the news of an investigation in Kuwait into an order for Eurofighter Typhoons supplied by the Italian defense group. Yesterday Kuwait deferred two soldiers on suspicion of corruption linked to this agreement.
It doesn't stop the bleeding on managed savings: Azimuth -2,9%; Finecobank -3,12%; Banca Generali -1,91%. Among the worst blue chips is Amplifon -3,52%.
Out of the main basket raises its head there Juventus +5,26%, illuminated by the hope of the arrival of the Serbian forward Dusan Vlahovic.
Slightly decreasing spreads
The Italian secondary continues to move in a narrow space, while the parties continue to seek an agreement for the new president of the Republic. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration closed at 140 basis points (-0,77), with slightly higher yields: +1,28% is the BTP rate; -0,12% that of the Bund.
IMF cuts forecast for 2022
The choices of the Fed, which could proceed with an initial rate hike in March, fall within a slightly worsened world economy context.
Indeed, the International Monetary Fund lowers its forecasts for 2022, bringing them to +4,4% from +4,9% estimated in October. The revisions of the two main economies in the world weigh above all: the United States (-1,2 percentage points to 4%) and China (-0,8 percentage points to 4,8%). For 2021, the estimate is for world growth of +5,9%, as in October.
“The world economy enters 2022 in a weaker position than previously expected,” reads the World Economic Outlook. The pandemic is partly to blame: “With the spread of the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus, countries have again imposed restrictions on mobility. Rising energy prices and supply chain problems have led to higher and more widespread inflation than expected, especially in the United States and many emerging markets and developing countries. The slower recovery in private consumption and the Chinese real estate crisis also contribute to the new scenario.
The review also affects Italy, on which the IMF raises its 2021 estimates, to 6,2% from 5,8% and lowers those for 2022, to 3,8% from 4,2%. A trend in line with the Eurozone (+3,9%), similar to Germany and France (+3,5%), but clearly lower than Spain (+5,8%).
Attention, finally says the international body, that the US monetary tightening could lead to risks for financial conditions
global.
Speaking of central banks, it should be noted that the Hungarian central bank raised its base rate today by 50 basis points to 2,9%, the highest in eight years, with average annual inflation forecasts at the highest level in a decade .
