Central bankers continue to preach caution as the fight against inflation rages on. But the markets are betting that the turning point is approaching as claimed by Mario Centeno, a Portuguese member of the ECB who in Parliament said he was certain that the current process of raising interest rates is nearing its end: inflation, he added , may have some resistance in January and February, but will start to fall again in March.
Waiting for the confirmation of this "prophecy" the first auction of the year, that is the offer of Bots at 12 months (7 billion in all) saw the yield rise to the highest level since mid-June 2012 at 3,086% (against 2,669% in December). But thanks to this, on the eve of the offer of 3- and 7-year bonds, the appeal of Italian debt is growing: the spread between the ten-year Btp, which slipped to 4,08%, and the Bund it sinks to share 181, well below the 200-point barrier.
In this climate Business Square is making a new step forward: +0,60% over 25.500 with an increase of more than 7% since the beginning of January: in the last 30 years, two times out of three, such a positive start has corresponded to a plus sign at the end of the year . Beyond the statistical aspect, the good intonation is valid for all the price lists of the Old Continent:
- Paris rises, which appreciates the rise of Italian Pietro Beccari at the top of Lvmh but above all the rise of delphine arnault, one of Bernard's children, at the helm of Dior.
- Bayer is racing in Frankfurt under the pressure of the purchases of the Bluebell activist fund which aims at the stew of the chemical giant.
- It's an exception in London Directline: The insurer plunges 28% after the company, one of Europe's leading motor insurance companies, canceled its dividend.
It is in Piazza Affari utilities day, launched by the strengthening of the BTPs and the parallel decrease in the cost of financing the activities. Hera leads the list +3,8% followed by A2A +3,5%. Enel +1,25%. The Argentine state is interested in purchasing Edesur, put up for sale by the Italian group.
Thwarted the sector oil & gas. Saipem -3,3% is the black shirt of the list. But Eni + 1% and Snam + 0,5% are advancing after completion of the pipeline partnership that connect Algeria to Italy. Equita also cites rumors from Upstream Online, according to which Eni could communicate in a few weeks the positive results of the exploration activity of a gas field off the coast of Egypt. Tenaris also rose +1,9%.
Weak banks, waiting for the developments of the interminable telenovela of Telecom Italy +0,3% in view of the resumption of meetings between the government and the main shareholders Vivendi and Cdp.
Several insights come today from reviews of estimates and recommendations by business houses.
- Brunello Cucinelli loses 3% after Exane Bnp Paribas cut the recommendation to underperform.
- Buzzi Unicem drops 0,6% following Berenberg's downgrade to hold.
- Recover instead stm , rejected by Goldman Sachs a sell, moving into slight positive ground after the declines of the morning.
Unchanged i Nasdaq futures a few hours after opening. Tomorrow will be the day of the most important macro data: in addition to inflation there are data on the labor market.
Friday starts the season of quarterly, with the accounts of the big banks. The six major lenders and investment banks are expected to report $28 billion in earnings together, but this estimate represents one decrease of 15% compared to the previous year.
- As far as the 'inflation in the United States, the consensus expects +6,5% in December, from +7,1% in November. Excluding food and energy, consumer prices are estimated to grow by 5,7%. The announcements on small business confidence released on Tuesday showed further signs of cooling in inflation, the fraction of companies expecting to raise prices in the next three months fell further and that of pessimists about the economic cycle increased.
Meanwhile continue the gold rush +0,4% to 1.888 dollars, fourth consecutive session of increases and new high for eight months.
