The last ten days of waiting on Brexit are opening, with the pound having reached its lowest level in the last two months against the dollar. A poll on Friday showed a ten per cent lead in favor of Britain leaving the euro. Volatility remains high. On the other hand, economists indicate that the victory of the yes vote for Great Britain's exit will push the pound to its lowest level for more than three decades while, conversely, the victory of the pro-European front will bring the currency of Her Majesty to the maximum of the year. Last Friday, in a single day, the squares of the Old Continent burned around 174 billion euros, the capitalization lost by the Stoxx Europe 600 index, which fell by 2,34 percent.
Markets still appear to be cautious with Asia opening negative today and the Nikkei leading declines down 3% as the yen climbs to its highest level in 2014 as government bond yields. The race for safe havens continues. The dollar trades at 1.277 dollars an ounce. And, for cryptocurrency lovers, bitcoins are also rising to a two-year high. Oil is in a roughly 1% retracement.
Two Chinese data expected from the market this morning: industrial production and retail sales for May. Industrial production marked an annual increase of 6% and +0,45% on a monthly basis. The figure is essentially in line with expectations. Retail sales, on the other hand, rose by 10% on an annual basis in May, slightly down on April's 10,1% and on forecasts by analysts who expected a confirmation of the previous month's values. Numbers that indicate a stabilization of the world's second largest economy.
In Europe today, the speech to the European Parliament in Brussels by Daniele Nouy, president of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, is on the agenda. The Fed meeting on monetary policy is expected on Wednesday: expectations are for nothing done on interest rates interest but the market is hoping to get some indication of Janet Yellen's future moves. Also keep an eye on the moves of the governor of the Bank of Japan who will close his two-day meeting on June 16 in which he could decide to expand the stimulus to the economy.
This morning the Treasury will auction 3,7 and 30-year BTPs for a total amount of between 5,5 and 7 billion. In terms of macroeconomic data, export data from the Italian regions are expected for the January-March period. In Piazza Affari the eyes are always on the banks and on Veneto Banca which is carrying out the capital increase which started on Wednesday with the intention of landing on the market. The company that will be born from the merger between Seat PagineGialle and Italiaonline is presented to the press in Milan.
