The Easter holidays are behind us, but the surprises are not. Theresa May took care of displacing the markets. The British premier, who a month ago had denied the hypothesis of early elections, yesterday announced the call to the polls for June 8, with the aim of guaranteeing the country's full support in view of the Brexit negotiations. One more reason to convince the Stock Exchanges, already under stress from the imminent French electoral duel, to proceed with the utmost caution.
Meanwhile, from the US quarterly reports, Goldman Sachs in the lead, it emerges that the Trump effect, the propellant of the recent increases, has been much less strong than one would like to believe. In the meantime, the prospect of launching the tax reform within months is fading. In short, on the eve of the meetings of the Monetary Fund in Washington, confusion is growing in the skies of finance. But Silvio Berlusconi has reason to celebrate: Agcom has accepted his appeal against Vivendi, which will have 12 months to sell off its share in Mediaset.
IT BOND FLYING, JAPAN AGAIN BELOW ZERO
International tensions, especially in the Sea of Japan, have contributed to pushing capital towards safe havens in Asia. Under pressure from purchases, the Japanese 0,04-year bond returned to negative territory (-XNUMX%) for the first time since Trump's election in November.
Great turmoil between currencies. The pound rose this morning to 2,2% against the dollar, also retreating against the euro, traded at 1,0731. The prices of T bonds are also racing: the US 2,17-year yield has slipped to 2,629% from the peak of XNUMX at the end of March.
Asian lists are down, starting from Shanghai (-0,5%). The Japanese market showed little movement, with the Nikkei index up by 0,1%. Seoul -0,3%, Mumbai -0,2%.
GOLDMAN SACHS (-4,7%) DRAG WALL STREET IN RED
The sharp fall of Goldman Sachs (-4,7%) and Johnson & Johnson (-3,10%) after the publication of the accounts, particularly affected the Dow Jones index, which closed down by 0,55 %. The losses of the S&P 500 (-0,29%) and the Nasdaq (-0,12%) were less marked.
Goldman Sachs closed the quarter with double earnings from a year ago (2,26 billion versus $1,14) but earnings per share of $5,15 are below average analyst forecasts, which indicated $5,34 dollars. The disappointment comes from the result achieved by trading bonds and other fixed income instruments, which amounted to 1,69 billion dollars, only 1% more than in the first quarter of 2016. Analysts had expected at least 2 billion .
Oils are also slowing down, under the pressure of crude oil prices: Brent slips to 54,73 dollars a barrel, Wti to 52,29. In May, according to forecasts, US shale oil production will rise to a two-year high. In Piazza Affari Eni drops by 2%, Saipem -2,5%, Tenaris -3,4%.
MILAN LOSES 1,6%. LONDON DOWN 2,5%
First the rising tension in France, then the surprise of early elections in the United Kingdom. The European Stock Exchanges, faced with the prospect of three decisive elections in less than six months (France, Great Britain and Germany) are feeling the pinch.
The Milan Stock Exchange closed a session conducted almost entirely in the bearish trend, in line with the other European markets. The Ftse Mib index lost 1,67% to 19.442 points. Frankfurt lost 0,9%, Paris 1,5% and London, troubled by the effect of the early elections, was the worst stock market in Europe with a drop of almost 2,5%. Sterling also strengthening against the euro: cross 0,8353, at its lowest since mid-December.
“Britain will need stability during the Brexit negotiation phase,” Theresa May said as she announced snap elections in June. The Istanbul Stock Exchange gains 0,9% and the Turkish lira rises after President Erdogan's victory, albeit narrow, in the referendum on constitutional reform: the lira/dollar exchange rate rises to 3,673 (+0,7%).
THE IMF REJECTS THE ITALIAN RECOVERY
The Italian economy does not restart. After the 0,9% with which 2016 ended, this year there is a risk of slowing down instead of the modest recovery on which the government is betting, with a new two-year period below 1% but above all at half the speed compared to the Eurozone average. These are the latest estimates from the International Monetary Fund contained in the six-monthly report "World economic outlook", where the forecast for the national gross domestic product stops at 0,8% both for this year and for next.
The 30 billion of corrective maneuver necessary to bring the structural deficit to a slight surplus in 2019 make it "difficult to support the country's development", warned yesterday the Confindustria Study Center, underlining that the development delay accumulated before and during the crisis by Italy compared to its main European partners it amounts, in terms of per capita GDP, to 21,6% compared to Germany.
Session with reduced volumes for government bonds. The Btp/Bund gap narrowed to 207 points compared to 212 at the weekend. The 2,261-year term closed at 0,18%. The XNUMX-year Bund yields XNUMX%.
AGCOM TO VIVENDI: YOU HAVE TO SELL. TODAY THE MEDIASET BOD
Both Telecom Italia (-2,6%) and Mediaset (-3,9%) were down pending the AgCom verdict, which arrived in the evening. The Authority, after a long discussion, decided to grant Vivendi 12 months to remove the violation of the Italian law that occurred due to its dual participation, in Telecom Italia and in the Alfa company. At this point he has 60 days to present a "specific plan aimed at detailing the methods of compliance", upon notice of the guarantor. Should Vivendi fail to comply with the provisions of the AgCom, it would risk an administrative fine of between 2% and 5% of the turnover (which in 2016 was 10,8 billion), therefore up to 500 million.
Therefore, the decline of the transalpine group in Mediaset is looming below 10% but Vincent Bolloré intends to give battle. Already in the late evening, a note was issued in which Vivendi "reserves the right to take any appropriate initiative in all the competent offices against the decision taken by AgCom to protect its interests, including filing an appeal with the TAR and a complaint to the European Commission to report the violation of fundamental principles of EU law. Mediaset's board meeting on the budget results is scheduled for today.
JUVENTUS FLYES (+15,8%) ALSO THANKS TO THE CHINESE AC MILAN
The good news consoled Silvio Berlusconi after the recent sale of Milan, which was in any case carried out under excellent conditions (720 million, if we also take into account the debts taken over by the Chinese buyers). The Juventus share benefited indirectly, +15,79% yesterday. The assessment of the Juventus club, on the eve of the return match of the Champions League quarter-finals in Barcelona, is on the rise due to the purchases of investors who update the price on the basis of Milan's transfer prices. In the last month, Juventus shares have reached a valuation of 655,05 million thanks to a performance of 47%. In the last three months the increase was 107%.
ADVANCES OF ATLANTIA TO ABERTIS. HISTORY REPEATS
A field day also for Atlantia: -3,8%, just above 23 euros, after a note from the Spanish Abertis, which shot up by 6,6%, reported at the request of the Iberian market authority, signaling that “ Atlantia has expressed its interest in exploring a possible corporate operation”. In turn, the Italian company clarified in a note that it had expressed to Abertis its "generic and preliminary interest in evaluating joint projects", highlighting however that "no commitment has been made nor any hypothesis has been discussed or brought to the attention of the corporate bodies” of the Spanish group.
The most popular hypothesis is that of a financial alliance between the Italian group (19,1 billion capitalisation) and the Spanish one (16,4 billion) already protagonists of a previous merger attempt about ten years ago. But at the time "Operation Gaucho" envisaged that the leadership was Spanish. This time the script is recited in reversed parts. Uncertainty over the future of motorway concessions in Spain could push Abertis' main shareholders (Caixa with 24%, the Godia family with 7%, Capital Research with 10%, Lazard with 3% and Blackrock with 2,5%, XNUMX%) to welcome a friendly offer.
BANKS WEAK, NEW CONTRACTS FOR FINCANTIERI
The Italian banking index loses 1,2%. Unicredit defends itself well, limiting the loss to -0,3%. Intesa (-2%), Bper Banca (-1,9%) and Banco Bpm (-2,5%) are doing worse. Among the insurance companies, Generali -1,2%, Unipol -2,4%.
All industrial stocks closed the day down with the exception of Leonardo which rose by 3,1%. Stm loses 2,8%, Fiat Chrysler -1,4%, Cnh Industrial -2,7%, Buzzi -2,2%. Fincantieri (+2,3%) signed a memorandum of agreement with Viking Ocean Cruises for the construction of two additional cruise ships, with the option for another two. Among the utilities, Enel fell by 1,9%, A2A -1,6%.
