The US lists could close September in the red. The conditional is a must, because during the night one of the most urgent problems was removed: the law suspending the effects of exceeding the federal debt limit was approved in the House. The possibility remains open for the Republicans to stop the bill in the Senate, but the upward push of the T-Bond (stuck at 1,51%) fails and the march of the dollar slows down, to its highest levels for over a year . But the Fed takes care of cooling the enthusiasm. Not only because the tapering is approaching under the pressure of inflation, but because yesterday Jay Powell, speaking at the ECB symposium, had to admit that price increases are not higher and less controllable than expected. “It is frustrating – he said – to admit that the bottlenecks of the real economy are resisting the efforts of the central authorities”.
The same problems, but in a more serious form, are affecting other areas of the planet hit by the rise in natural gas and by the shortage of energy. Starting from Asia, with a loss of speed, probably much more than the official data indicate.
TOKYO CHOOSES THE PREMIER, THE POLITICS DOESN'T CHANGE
Tokyo's Nikkei moves on parity after the publication of a series of macroeconomic data. September closes up by more than 5%, the quarter by 2,8%. Yesterday the majority party chose the new prime minister: Fumio Kishida, representative of the old guard.
Last month, Japan was penalized by the state of health emergency in many strategic areas of the country: industrial production fell by 3,2% month on month in August, from -1,5% in July: the consensus expected -0,5%. Retail sales register a drop of 4% compared to July, expected -1,7%. Last night, during the ECB's annual meeting, the governor of the Central Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the real estate crisis in China is not a significant threat to Japan and to global financial markets, as it is not been caused by excessively speculative investments.
CHINA HOLDS BACK, EVERGRANDE DOES NOT PAY BONDS IN DOLLARS
The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock lists gains 0,5%: at these prices, September is slightly positive (+1%), while the balance for the quarter is completely negative (-7%).
Indicators anticipate a loss of momentum for Chinese industry. The PMI index on the expectations of purchasing managers of manufacturing companies fell to 49,6 from 50,1: expected 50. The leap in the PMI index for services, however, is comforting, back well above the threshold that delimits expansion from contraction , at 53,2 from 47,5 (consensus at 49,8). Good news ahead of the October holidays.
The Hang Seng loses 0,9%: September -5%, quarter -15%. Evergrande is down by 5%: yesterday the company did not pay the coupon on the bond in dollars, confirming that the line is to protect Chinese savers and the rights of home buyers.
INDIA (+12%) QUEEN OF THE BAGS TOGETHER WITH SIDNEY
Kospi of Seoul +0,4% in the month (-7% the quarter), BSE Sensex on parity (+12% the quarter), S&P ASX 200 of Sydney +1,7% (+13% the quarter).
The Bloomberg Commodity index is on par after yesterday's 1,5% drop (+4% on the month and +6% on the quarter).
Wti oil flat at 74,7 dollars a barrel (+9% in the month and +1,5% in the quarter). Brent at 78,53% (-0,14%).
Euro dollar barely moved at 1,160, a level not seen since November 2020: at these levels, the month closed with a drop of 1,7%.
Yesterday the Nasdaq fell again (-0,24%). In equilibrium Dow Jones (+0,26) and S&P (+0,16%).
THE STRONG DOLLAR PUSHES EUROPEAN EXPORTS
The dollar is getting stronger and stronger, while oil floats on yesterday's levels. This is enough to return the smile to European operators, however attentive to the signals coming from politics and central banks. Mario Draghi sends a precise message to post-Merkel Germany, arguing that it would be "unrealistic" to think of re-proposing the old Fiscal Compact. Christine Lagarde, on the other hand, dedicates her third speech in three days to the uncertainty caused by bottlenecks, by the increase in energy prices and by the fear of new waves of the pandemic, scourges with which the stock exchanges have learned to live with.
BTPs STABLE, STRONG DEMAND AT AUCTION
The fever on government bonds also subsides in the Eurozone. The German bund trades at -0,22%, the Btp at 0,81%. The spread narrows to 103 points.
Good in the morning the question at the Treasury auctions. The Mef has issued the fifth tranche of the 5-year BTP expiring on 01/08/2026 for 2 billion against a request of 3,672 billion. The yield rose 12 cents to 0,11%. The sixth tranche of the 10-year BTP expiring on 01/12/2031 received requests for 4,331 billion and the amount issued was 2,5 billion while the yield, up by 20 cents on last month's auction, settled at 0,86%. Finally, the eleventh tranche of the CcTeu expiring on 15/04/2026, assigned for 1,75 billion against a total demand of 2,759 billion, achieved a gross yield of -0,21%.
DRAGHI PRESENTS THE NADEF OF THE RECOVERY
Piazza Affari rises by 0,64%% (to 25.736 basis points). From the update note of the Def confirmation emerges that growth for 2021 is better than expected: GDP goes from 4,5% to 6%, the deficit/GDP ratio drops from 11,8% to 9,4%, the debt/GDP ratio from 159,8 .153,5% to XNUMX%. In any case "the economic picture - says Prime Minister Draghi - is far better than what we ourselves thought it could be".
The best macroeconomic framework - due to the progress of the epidemic, the success of the vaccination campaign and the climate of confidence - will allow, with the Budget law, to have an expansive fiscal policy of over one point of GDP (about 20 billion). In 2022, the maneuver will have an impact on growth of an additional half point of GDP (4,7% instead of 4,2%).
The provision provides for the extension until 2023 of the 110% Superbonus and until 31 October for the single check, the renewal of the emergency redundancy fund and new additional times for companies that have to pay the suspended IRAP in 2020
GERMAN INFLATION RISES
The other stock exchanges in the Eurozone are also on positive ground: the Eurostoxx index is up 0,7%. Frankfurt closes with an increase of 0,73%. In August, German import prices grew by 16,50% on an annual basis: it is the fastest pace in the last 40 years, driven by the jump in gas and oil prices. Economists estimated an increase of 16,1%.
DRAHI POINTS EUTELSAT
Paris appreciates by 0,84%. The financier Patrick Drahi intends to acquire control of Eutelsat, the French satellite operator which boasts a capitalization of 2,3 billion euros.
RECORD LONDON, ELECTRIC ROLLS ROYCE SINCE 2030
More tonic Madrid (+1,24%) and London (+1,15%). AstraZeneca is trading up 1,6% after announcing it will take full control of Caelum Biosciences (valued at $500 million).
From 2039, the Rolls Royce will also be exclusively electric.
Amsterdam lags slightly behind (+0,25%) and Asml - one of the world's leading suppliers of machines for the semiconductor industry - loses 2,6% despite having revised upwards its long-term growth estimates, on the basis of a growing demand for its products.
RUNS UNICREDIT IN VIEW OF MPS
The banking sector dominated the Piazza Affari scene. Unicredit advances (+3,73%) pending news on the merger with Monte Paschi (+0,69%).
During the board meeting on the results of the third quarter of 2021 (October 27), the institute's top management could communicate the outcome of the negotiations. Orcel intends to close before the presentation of the new business plan at the end of November. The institute is about to securitize it is preparing to securitize 11,8 billion euros of loan portfolio.
FROM BNP PARIBAS THE SHARES OF NAGEL WHO RECRUITS MONGE
Mediobanca still in the spotlight (+2,73%). Today the representatives of the pact which holds over 10% of the Milanese merchant will meet to examine the 2020-21 budget and the latest governance developments. On Tuesday evening with the markets closed, shareholder Leonardo Del Vecchio, through Delfin, asked for amendments to the articles of association, while specifying that he does not intend to revoke the current board of directors before the end of his mandate. Benetton also takes off, strong by 2,1%, but Alberto Nagel will be able to strengthen the hard core by more than 19% thanks to the Monge family, the Italian leader in dog food which entered the capital in the spring and on the shares of Lucchini and the Gavio family . “Overall, the speculative framework for Generali and Mediobanca shares remains quite lively”, comments Equita Sim.
Bnp Paribas, which organized the securities lending transaction, supplied Nagel with 4,22% of Generali shares in view of the discussion with the Del Vecchio/Caltagirone pact.
GENERALI, ALL READY FOR THE CATHOLIC TENDER OFFER
Generali (+0,93%) for its part published the prospectus of the takeover bid on Cattolica which will be launched on 4 October. Unipol also rose (+1,55%) together with its ally Bper (+2,56%).
In well-collected luxury Moncler (+1,2%). Mediobanca Securities expects in its upcoming third-quarter results on October 28 that revenues will exceed pre-pandemic levels. Tod's (+1,10%), Ferragamo (+1%) and Cucinelli (+0,55%) also rose.
CONSUMPTION IN RECOVERY, OVIESSE AT HIGHEST SINCE 2018
In the very strong Ovs distribution, which jumps by about 5% on the maximum since November 2018.
CADE TIM: THE CLOUD IS NOT ENOUGH
Telecom Italia suffers (-2,8%), the day after the announcement on the presentation, together with Cdp, Leonardo and Sogei, of a proposal for the creation of the National Strategic Pole (PSN) of the cloud. But the novelty is not enough to compensate for the difficulties of mobile and fiber. Tim was yesterday the worst stock in Europe in the telecommunications sector (-0,34%).
PININFARINA WILL MAKE THE MAHINDRA SUPERCAR (2,2 MILLION)
Indian automaker Mahindra is considering options to raise funds for its subsidiary Automobili Pininfarina The automaker's goal is to start production of its $2,2 million electric supercar, Bloomberg reported.
Of note is Maire Tecnimont (+2,2%), which concluded an agreement for the modernization of a refinery in Gdansk.
Digital Value takes off on Aim (+4,82%).
