Asian stock markets positive, but cautiously, in the last session of the week waiting tonight for the Chinese trade balance data and, above all, for the Dragon's gross domestic product numbers, scheduled for Monday. It is almost obvious that, thanks to the trade war, Beijing will have to announce the weakest growth for 27 years now. But what counts more, for now, is the record wind blowing from Wall Street.
CHINA RISES AWAITING TRADE DATA
Hong Kong is starting to close up 0,4%, better than the CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen lists (+0,6%). The latest tweet from Donald Trump does not frighten operators, protesting that the purchase orders on US agriculture promised by President Xi at the recent meeting in Osaka have not yet arrived.
The Tokyo Nikkei (+0,1%) and the Korean Kospi were positive, even if the dispute over the supply of components for chips between the two electronics powers is picking up.
HEALTHCARE HELPS WALL STREET, OIL RISING
American stock markets are still in the limelight, supported by the words of the president of the Fed. The artillery of the central banks is ready to go into action, not only overseas. Several signals confirmed yesterday that the ECB intends to launch robust expansionary measures as early as the next meeting on 25 July. Fed chairman Jerome Powell yesterday reiterated the US central bank's "dovish" line: for the first American rate cut since 2008, it will be enough to wait until July 31 next.
Yesterday evening the Dow Jones closed up 0,85% and reached a new all-time high touching 27.088 points, for the first time in history beyond the threshold of 27. However, the S&P 500 index +0,23% is unable to stay above 3 points at 2,999.91. The Nasdaq is down 0,08%.
The rally was supported by a jump by health insurance giant UnitedHealth Group (+5,6%) and by considerable gains by Boeing and Goldman Sachs.
Catalyzing interest in the healthcare sector was news that the Trump administration had dropped a proposal to end rebates paid to middlemen who negotiated drug prices on behalf of health insurers. Cigna (+8%) and CVS Health (+6%) also leapt ahead. Pharmaceuticals down: Merck, Pfizer and Johnson & Johnson.
On the bond market front, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2,12% from 2,05% the day before against a rise in inflation which may affect rate decisions: net of the more volatile components (food and energy) the increase was 2,1%, above the +2% expected.
WTI oil is up at $60,60 a barrel. The same rise for Brent to 67,05 dollars a barrel. The week is about to close with a gain of more than 4% for both types. The oil companies are doing well in Milan. Saipem slightly up also supported by contracts in Saudi Arabia. Tenaris +1,8%.
THE ECB READY FOR ACTION
The euro is still appreciating against the dollar at 1,127 against the dollar, +0,2%. In the meantime, futures on European stock exchanges anticipate a moderate upturn. Confirmation of the central bank's accommodative line came from the ECB minutes: "The members of the central bank - reads the minutes - will consider the injection of new stimuli in the short term in light of the weakness of inflation and the growing uncertainties globally set to worsen in the near future”.
Philip Lane, the institute's new chief economist, much appreciated by Mario Draghi, thinks so: "We have the tools and good experience to react to risks of all kinds - he replied in a tweet session open to operators - The most effective to bring inflation to the desired level is the adoption of pro-active measures, including the adoption of negative rates”.
Finally, in the report, the latest on the eurozone before IMF director general Christine Lagarde takes over the leadership of the ECB in November, the Fund said that Frankfurt's plans to maintain an accommodative monetary policy are "vital".
BUSINESS PLACE REMAINS THE BEST STOCK EXCHANGE, FRANKFURT SUFFERS
Against this backdrop, the Milan Stock Exchange (+0,56%) closed up, on the highs of the last thirteen months at 22.169 points.
The performance since the beginning of the year of the FtseMib widens to +21,5%, better than the Eurostoxx stopped at +16,70%,
Only two shares out of the 40 that make up the index, Pirelli and Bpm, have recorded a negative performance since the beginning of the year. Twenty stocks managed to "beat" the index with gains of more than +21%.
The other price lists are in red. The worst is Frankfurt (-0,3%): to add uncertainty are the health conditions of Angela Merkel always at the center of attention for her inexplicable tremors. Paris -0,28% and London -0,25% were also weak. Well Madrid +0,29%.
Another day of glory for Italian paper.
The spread with the Bund fell to 192 basis points, to its lowest since June 2018. The differential with the Spanish Bono rose to 125 basis points, the lowest in the last twelve months, from 128 yesterday: it had jumped to an all-time record of 200 basis points at the end of May in the phase of maximum conflict between the Lega/M5s government and Brussels.
ANOTHER SUCCESS FOR THE TREASURE AT AUCTIONS
The yield of the ten-year BTP falls to 1,68% from 1,73%.
Yesterday, on the last day of the mid-month auctions, the Italian Treasury assigned all 5,5 billion euros of the two bonds with maturities of three and seven years. 3 billion for a three-year period have been assigned at a yield of 0,49%, up from 1,05% in mid-June. The Treasury also issued $2,5 billion of seven-year bonds yielding 1,24%, up from 1,96%.
ALITALIA, ATLANTIA READY TO INVEST 400 MILLION
In the spotlight Atlantia (+2,57%): the board of the infrastructure holding has decided to evaluate in particular the terms of the industrial plan and the structure of the shareholding company of the new Alitalia which should involve FS at 35%, the MEF at 15 % and the carrier uses Delta at 10-15%. The Benetton group company expects a commitment of around 400 million.
BLACKROCK MORE THAN 10% OF FINECO
Positive bankers but without fireworks to celebrate the drop in the spread below 200 points. Intesa Sanpaolo advances by 1%, Unicredit +1,2%, Ubi +0,9%. New rise for Mps (+1,36%). The exception is Bper (-0,8%).
In Fineco (-0,48%) the presence of BlackRock is growing, rising to 10,233% in conjunction with the exit from the capital of Unicredit.
Nexi (+1,8%) set a new historical record.
CREDIT SUISSE PROMOTES ENEL
Among the utilities, Enel shines (+1,3%): Credit Suisse raises the target price. Acea does even better (+1,52%). Triad +1%.
Fiat Chrysler brakes: in a long interview with Print on the occasion of the 120th anniversary of the birth of the company, John Elkann confirmed that the Renault operation has faded. Also down were CNH (-1,5%) and Exor (-1%).
RECORDS FOR INWIT, FALCK AND DIGITAL BROS
Inwit marks the new all-time high at 9,10 euros pending the consolidation of the sector.
Falck Renew (+2,4%) has been pushing towards new tops since 2008 under the impetus of the new incentives envisaged for renewables.
New record since 2018 also for Digital Bros (+3%).
TARGET SHOOTING ON MEDIASET
Difficult session, however, for Mediaset, which dropped 1,65% at 2,749 euros, below 2,77 euros, which represents the threshold for shareholders who do not intend to participate in the project to exercise their right of withdrawal of a Dutch holding company to which the Biscione's TV activities in Italy and Spain will be conferred at the shareholders' meeting on 4 September. The Spanish subsidiary (-1,53%) also fell below the withdrawal price.
The headline of the day was Rehabilitation (+15,09%), driven by the plans for the 2026 Winter Olympics.
Black shirt for Avio (-14,07%): two minutes before take-off, the Vega launcher recorded an anomaly shortly after second stage ignition which led to the premature conclusion of the mission. It's the first flop after 14 successful tosses.
