The US Treasury has revised upwards its estimates on new debt issues: in the third quarter new bonds will be printed for 947 billion dollars, 270 billion more than previous estimates. The news had a modest echo: the 0,03-year bonds rose by 0,5445%, to 8,80%, just a whisker from the lows. The markets have now become accustomed to the continuous injection of liquidity, necessary to support the restart of the economies. And the consequences are being felt: after gold reached new highs, oil took off, at the top for five months, and the stock markets are no longer limited to just tech stocks. In short, the spell continues and has even found its testimonial: Walt Disney (+5%) yesterday bewitched Wall Street thanks to the profits of the streaming service, which offset XNUMX billion in losses attributed to the pandemic. How long will it last? The closest unknowns concern the negotiations underway in Washington for the new measures to support unemployment and the new numbers on the labor market. Clouds that don't seem able to disturb the horizon much.
TOYOTA BURNS 98% OF PROFITS
The stalemate in negotiations between Democrats and Republicans for the new stimulus package affects the session of the Asian stock markets, mainly down this morning. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down 0,47%. Toyota's profits fell 98% to $131 million, but the house regained its sales lead.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index lost 1,64%. China's Shanghai Composite was down 0,8%. South Korea's Kospi bucked the trend, gaining 0,7%
THE NASDAQ CROSSES THE THRESHOLD OF 11 THOUSAND POINTS
On Wall Street, the three main indexes reached new historic or period highs during the session. The Dow Jones leads the race (+1,4%), confirming the recovery of the traditional economy. S&P 500 +0,64%, Nasdaq +0,52%: the technological index updates the historical record for the umpteenth time, reaching 10.998 points (the psychological threshold of 11 points was also exceeded during the session).
Futures on the Wall Street Stock Exchange anticipate a timid upward start. Contrasted those on the Eurostoxx 50 index.
FALLING INVENTORIES PUSHING UP BRENT
Oil this morning consolidates yesterday's robust progress: Brent at 45,3 dollars a barrel, the price on the highs of the last five months. The EIA reported that weekly inventories of crude oil fell by about 7,37 million barrels, a figure higher than expected, mainly due to the reduction in imports from Saudi Arabia.
Gold fluctuates around all-time highs at 2.048 dollars an ounce, +0,3%. Today's increase could be the fourteenth in fifteen sessions.
Dollar-euro cross moved little in the initial stages, at 1,187, close to the highs for almost two years.
GERMANY STARTS AGAIN. THE BULL MAKES TRICKY IN PIAZZA AFFARI
There are new signs of optimism for the European economy. After the progress of manufacturing, yesterday it was the turn of the other PMI indices. The figure relating to services has risen to 50 points. Germany, the locomotive of Europe, is doing better: 55,6 points, for the first time above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction since the lockdown measures were introduced in March. In the Eurozone, June retail sales rose 1,3% year-on-year, against estimates of a 0,2% contraction. The May data was also revised upwards to -3,2% from -5,1%. The rise of the euro continues, at 1,189 against the dollar, but the decline in the US currency has given wings to oil companies.
Piazza Affari joins the good general tone and scores the third consecutive rise, +0,64%, to 19.740 basis points.
ACCOR AND COMMERZBANK: ACCOUNTS IN THE RED BUT SECURITIES UP
Positive Frankfurt (+0,47%). BMW closes at -3,5%: in the second quarter it was charged with a net loss of 212 million euros. On the other hand, Commerzbank rebounds (+4,8%), which should close the year with a loss, also due to the large devaluation of the credits granted to Wirecard.
Paris +0,90%, Accor also closes on the rise (+3,5%) which also scored -6% at the start after the record loss of 1,5 billion in the first six months.
Madrid +0,26%. London +1,14% driven by oil prices. BP +3%: the British oil giant extends the +7% recorded after the accounts.
BTP STILL BELOW 1%
The BTPs lose ground, but not too much, in line with the performance of the Bund and the US Treasury, which rises to 0,55% from an all-time low of 0,51%. The prospect of an increase in the supply of new paper on longer maturities weighs heavily: the US Treasury Department has said it will issue more than expected in the third quarter.
Our BTP fluctuates around 0,97%, close to the lowest level since February. The ten-year rate is approaching the threshold of 1% (0,97%), while the spread with the Bund is close to that of 150 basis points.
MEDIASET, STILL NO PEACE WITH VIVENDI, BUT IT IS
Black smoke for Vivendi/Mediaset, -0,49% at the close after a brilliant morning. The signs of peace that pushed the Biscione upwards in the last two sessions were frozen last night by the note from Fininvest after the board of directors, which, acknowledging the sentence of the Spanish court which agreed with Vincent Bolloré, threw down the gauntlet of challenge: "The decision taken by the Madrid court – reads the press release – is only the consequence of the instrumental and preordained opposition of Vivendi which acts in its own exclusive interest". Mediaset says it is ready to sue Vivendi for damages. But the parties negotiate.
TIM: THE UNIQUE NETWORK IS LIKED, BUT YOU NEED BOLLORÉ'S YES
Tim stands out (+3,99%). The board of directors viewed the acceleration of the Rete Unica project with great favour. The market is once again betting on the marriage between the Telecom Italia network and its first fiber rival, Open Fiber. The agreement must be reached by August 31st, the deadline for the validity of the 7,7 billion offer from the US Kkr fund for Tim's secondary network, and a new deadline with which the institutions have committed themselves and presented themselves through a letter signed by Mef and Mise for the creation of the single network. But to merge with Open Fiber and arrive at the single network without losing control, it will first be necessary to find an agreement with the shareholder Vivendi, whose votes will be needed in an extraordinary meeting for the spin-off of the services.
TENARIS LEADS THE ENERGY RALLY
In Milan, purchases have rewarded energy companies, industrialists and banks.
Eni +3,7%, Saipem +6%, Tenaris +5,5%, rebounding from multi-year lows. Since the beginning of the year, the share price has halved.
BUY CHORUS BY UNDERTAKING
The banking sector made marked progress: Bper advanced by 5,8%, Intesa Sanpaolo +2,27%. Jefferies raised the target price to 2,10 euros later the quarterly. Buy confirmed. The stock is also driven by the promise of the managing director, Carlo Messina, to detach a double dividend in 2021. According to Giovanni Razzoli, banking analyst at Equita, the bank will be able to detach a coupon of up to €2021 per share in 0,30, equal to a yield today of 16%. Kepler Cheuvreux raised the target price on the stock from 2,1 to 2,22 euros, confirming the buy recommendation. Ubi +1,27%. Mediobanca's recovery continues (+2,8%).
BPER REVIEWS THE PLAN, BUYBACK FOR ILLIMITY
Bper Banca has cut its 2021 business plan targets in light of the worsening macro picture. For the end of next year, he estimates a stand-alone profit of 235 million, expected to grow to 375 million as a result of the acquisition of the business unit from Intesa Sanpaolo after the acquisition of Ubi. In this regard, it foresees a capital increase of around 800 million to finance the operation.
Among the mid-caps, strong gains for Illimity (+9,15%), after the second quarter results beyond expectations and the launch of a treasury share buyback plan to service the long-term incentive plan.
BUZZI SUPERSTAR, GOLDMAN PROMOTES FERRARI, PIRELLI BRAKES
Among industrialists, Buzzi is on the rise (+5,16%), promoted by Equita from hold to buy, with a target price that rises by 9% to 24,4 euros, after the accounts for the second quarter of 2020. Mediobanca raises the target from 19,8 to 22,6 euros after the quarterly. Outperform rating confirmed.
Little moved Ferrari (+0,1%). Goldman Sachs raised the target price from 165 to 189 euros, Buy judgment confirmed.
Pirelli has revised downwards its operating margin and cash flow estimates for the whole of 2020 due to the "strong" impact of the pandemic.
ATLANTIA -1,16%, THE BENETTONS READY TO LEAVE ASPI
Volatile Atlantia, which lost up to 5% and then recovered ground (-1,6%) after a note from Edizione which took note of the decisions taken yesterday by the Board regarding the exit of Aspi from the group perimeter. The Benetton holding said it agreed with the proposed deals and that it plans to put its stake up for sale within 18 months of the possible split.
ARTERRA +31%, FRUIT AND VEGETABLES THE ANTIDOTE FOR COVID
Falck Renewables -3,8%, penalized by "mixed" results and with slightly lower guidance, notes Fidentiis.
Tinexta rally (+15,72%) after results beyond expectations. On Aim, focus on Arterra (+31,36%): the company has identified a natural compound derived from waste from the agri-food chain capable of binding the Spike protein, thus preventing the viral infection from SARS-CoV-2 (Covid -19).
