March on closes in style Asia price lists: for the first time in four years the index closed the month in positive territory (+2,9%). Plus sign also for the quarter (+4%). Since the beginning of the year, Tokyo has gained 7,5% Meanwhile, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is still stretching Alibaba + 4,4% (17% in March). And good news comes from Chinese economic statistics: both services and manufacturing are growing more than expected.
In short, a new note of optimism completely unexpected just a week ago. The quarter that saw rates jump to a 15-year high, which saw the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse and a couple of major US regional banks, is about to end on a strong note. The MSCI World index grew by +6%, MSCI Emerging Markets index +3,1%. In particular, the Brazilian stock market closed up by almost +2%, reaching the fifth consecutive session in positive territory. A positive mortgage awaiting the publication of inflation numbers in the Eurozone and in the USA, the most awaited data of the week.
Europe on the run. Milan recovers
European stocks should open higher. EuroStoxx50 index futures rise by 0,2%.
Milan +1%, at these prices, barring a final sprint, March is starting to close with a drop of almost -2%. In the quarter, on the other hand, the increase is almost +14%.
The Frankfurt Stock Exchange marked a rise of +1% after the release of data on German inflation.
Spotlight today onprice index in Italy and in the Eurozona, a key figure in view of the decisions of the ECB which will be released on 11. March, according to forecasts, should close with a drop in inflation from 8,5 to 7,1%. But the improvement should not extend to the core data (net of energy and food).
Trump's torpedo doesn't scare Wall Street
The indictment, on a closed stock market, of Donald Trump indicted by the Manhattan prosecutor's office for the payment of 130.000 dollars to the porn star Stormy Daniels should not weigh too much on the opening of the US markets: yesterday evening the S&P500 index rose by 0,6%, ten of the eleven sector indices went up. Financials are down slightly.
At today's prices, the benchmark of the United States stock exchange since the beginning of the year, it has recorded an increase of +4,3%, the Nasdaq Composite much better, +15%, the Dow Jones much worse -1%.
After four consecutive days of sharp falls, the Vix fear index rose slightly, but we are still below the first alert threshold, set by convention around twenty points.
At 14.30 the data on the PCE Core will be released, the survey by insiders which is preferred by the Federal Reserve. Economists expect +4,7%, the same level as in February.
The Treasury rises, a golden quarter for the Bund
Investors seem inclined to believe that the increase in interest rates has reached its peak, while a significant easing of the banking turbulence seen in recent days is expected.
The 3,54-year Treasury trades at a 2% yield. The price grew by +XNUMX% in the first quarter, the best result for exactly two years.
The situation in the Eurozone remains more tense after the worse-than-expected data on German inflation. 2,37-year Bund 1,90%. First quarter up +XNUMX%, again the best result for two years.
4,22-year BTP 5,20%. The balance for the first quarter of the ten-year BTP is largely positive (+2019%) and comes after five consecutive quarters of decline. Such a large quarterly gain has not been seen since XNUMX.
Black quarter oil. Never so low raw materials
Little moved oil at 79 dollars. little moved. Here too it is time to take stock: the first quarter is about to close with a loss of -8%, it is the third quarter in the red for crude oil, an event that has not occurred since 2015. The price is discounting an imminent drastic slowdown in global growth , all to be demonstrated, especially if the Chinese economy restarts decisively.
European gas changes hands at 43,58 euro/mWh, the balance for the quarter is -42%, just under the -52% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The commodity index is down sharply: -8% since the beginning of the year, another sign of an imminent decline in inflation.
Unicredit Assembly, system intervention for Eurovita
Spotlight today onUnicredit assembly. KBW analysts cut the target price of the bank and of Mediobanca.
Enel. The European Union has found a compromise on the objectives of increasing energy consumption from renewable sources to 2030. In seven years, at least 42,5% must be green energy: the European Commission had asked for 45%, the states were trying to go down at 40%.
A concerted system intervention is looming to avoid other problems with Eurolife. With the intervention of Generai, Unipol and Poste Italiane. The Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy, on a proposal from IVASS, ordered the extraordinary administration of Eurovita with a Decree dated 29 March. With today's provision, IVASS has extended until 30 June the suspension of the surrenders of the insurance and capitalization contracts stipulated with Eurovita, already arranged on 6 February with expiry on 31 March. KBW analysts have cut the target price..
Prysmian could extend the time horizon of its investment plan to finance new growth opportunities and production capacity if necessary to meet demand. The group's CFO Pier Francesco Facchini told Reuters.
