Incredible. The most optimistic note comes from Germany. "The European stocks are relatively a good price - he writes Maximilian Uleer, responsible for researching Deutsche Bank – therefore we expect an increase of 5%”. In support of the thesis, the analyst mentions, among other things, the growth in profits of large companies that are already taking advantage of the recovery of China. First of all the luxury flagship lvmh, but also Novo Nordisk, Volvo and Basf to mention the quarterly reports already released.
Chinese GDP on the rise: +2% expected in the quarter
The analyst's opinion (“the S&P index – he adds – is 30% more expensive than the Eurostoxx” -) serves to introduce the first hot topic of the week: the Chinese GDP data of the first quarter of 2023: the consensus of Bloomberg expect aacceleration to +4%, from +2,9% a year ago. On a sequential basis, net of the seasonal component, theincrease should be 2%. Other observers, such as Citi, are even more positive.
Tomorrow's data coincides with theopening of the Shanghai Auto Show, considered the most important appointment of the year for the four-wheel industry. Another sign that the second largest economy on the planet is back to galloping.
China: central bank cuts stimulus
Le bags of China stand out this morning in Asia Pacific. CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists +0,9%. Hang Seng of Hong Kong +0,6%. In anticipation of the strong acceleration of the economic cycle, le monetary authorities reduce stimulus. From the data reported tonight by Bloomberg, it emerges that the central bank it injected only XNUMX billion yuan in April, the lowest amount of liquidity since November. According to Reuters, interventions in support of the yuan were also down.
The stock exchanges of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are around parity. An attempt on Japanese premier Kishida was thwarted in extremis. India's BSE Sensex opened 1% down.
Positive opening for EU Stock Exchanges. Milan one step away from 2008
Also for Barclays the driving force of China will be decisive for support the rally of the European markets. The first session of the week of the Old Continent stock exchanges opened up (Ftse Mib +0,62%) in line with the EuroStoxx 50 future index +0,2%.
Positive the balance of the last week. L'Eurostoxx 50 index he went one point away from the absolute tops. The cac 40 closed at an all-time high. The Dax of Frankfurt has reached the top since January 2022. The Ftse Eb it finished the fourth positive week in a row, about one point off its 15-year highs.
Btp towards an increase of 50 points but Lagarde is soft
I hawks continue to prevail at the ECB. The markets are convinced that the central bank, despite Italy's different opinion, will raise rates by 50 points at its next meeting in May. The Bund biennial it climbed 32 points last week, the biggest increase since last September.
Cautious Christine Lagarde, judging by the text that you will read today in New York: "we expect that theinflation in the euro area continues to fall” with the easing of price pressures and the effects on demand of a tight monetary policy. “With inflation too high for too long, the ECB decided in March to raise rates by 50 basis points, bringing the total increases since July 2022 to 350 basis points. The increases highlight our determination to ensure the return of inflation to the medium-term target of 2%”, concludes Lagarde.
Reading the minutes of the last meeting in Frankfurt, which will be published on Thursday, is very important in this light. Spotlights also on inflation updates of Italy, the United Kingdom, the Eurozone and on the Zew, the German confidence index.
La Italian politics look at the Economic and Financial Document and the first measures to be taken – between the employment decree and the cut in the tax wedge – with a view to narrowing the public accounts path.
A shower of quarterly reports on Wall Street. The Beige Book is coming
Futures in parity a few hours after the opening of the US markets. Friday the Dow Jones of Wall Street closed down by 0,4%, but the week instead recorded a positive balance, +1,2%.
In the spotlight i quarterly accounts. They come to the fore Goldman Sachs e Morgan Stanley. Pay attention also to the quarterly of Johnson & Johnson e Netflix.
Today, theElon Musk's space adventure will take a decisive step. From the Boca Chica base in Texas it should take off the Starship spacecraft 120 meters high with a load capacity towards the Moon of at least 100 tons, surpassing what had so far been the most powerful space 'lift', the Saturn V, used for NASA's Apollo missions to the Moon. The 33 Raptor engines will provide double the thrust. Parts are designed to be reused.
On the macro front to follow on Wednesday the Beige Book. At its next meeting on May 3, the Fed is expected to raise rates by a quarter of a point.
Il Treasury Notes the 3,51-year trades at a 3,43% yield, up from XNUMX% on Friday. The construction sector it closed at 4,28%. The other price lists are also in good health. L'MSCI World index it grew by +1,3% in five days, reaching its highest level since the beginning of February, +8,6% since the beginning of the year; L'MSCI Emerging Markets index it grew by +1,4% reaching its highest since February 21st, +4,6% since the beginning of the year.
Dollar recovering, Gold at 2004 level
Recovery continues dollar, compared to the euro traded at 1.098. Gold settling at $2.004 an ounce after Friday's sharp drop. WTI oil at $82,5 a barrel, unchanged. Just under thirty thousand dollars, the bitcoin.
