AWAITING THE EXAMINATION OF THE BANKS UNDER STRESS THE BTPs
UNCERTAIN STOCK EXCHANGES, BUSINESS MARKET IS 0,26% DOWN
Under the ax of the warnings from the US debt rating agencies and awaiting the outcome of the stress tests which will be communicated in the afternoon, the European stock exchanges are experiencing a day of waiting, dominated by nervousness. In Milan, in particular, the tension manifests itself on the front of public debt securities, after the rises in yields recorded by the week's auctions on BOTs and BTPs. The spread with the German Bund has again risen above 300 points while the 5,69-year BTP, the real "benchmark", is exchanged with an interest rate of XNUMX%.
The Milanese list shows a loss of 0,26%, in line with the Parisian CAC and the German Dax. While awaiting the examination to which 91 European banks have been subjected by the EBA, rumors spread (the rejection of at least two Spanish banks seems certain) and the first controversies emerge (particularly critical of the criteria adopted by the EBA are some German bankers).
We recall that the stress test involves subjecting bank accounts to a simulation in which the growth rate of European GDP drops to 0,8% per annum while stock market prices drop by 15%. A scenario which, alas, today appears much less conservative and prudent than a few months ago, when the model was developed.
ON THE SHIELD BANCO POPOLARE TOWARDS THE "SINGLE BANK"
PIRELLI AND INDUSTRIAL LEAD THE RACE, THANKS TO GS
The securities of the system banks, Intesa and Unicredit, a few hours after the results (probably positive for the Italian banks) are practically unchanged. Instead, Bpm (+1,8%) ends up in the spotlight, after the visit to Bank of Italy by the top management to illustrate the business plan. Even better is Banco Popolare (+2,2%) which is preparing to announce the new structure this week, centered on the single bank after the absorption of the controlled institutions. The parent company will incorporate Popolare di Novara, Verona, Lodi and the subsidiary of Lucca. The advantage will be in the order of around 130 million, half of which will be in the form of intra-group VAT savings.
Great attention for Pirelli, Fiat and the galaxy of four wheels (+ 1,1% the European sector index) promoted by a Goldman Sachs report. Pirelli rises by 2,6% after the report of the US investment bank: the European auto sector, we read, presents great opportunities, also due to the low p/u level. In the meantime, Fiat's European market share has stopped falling (+1,5%), which remained unchanged in May at the level of 8,3%. But the attention, again for a report by Goldman Sachs, is for Fiat Industrial. US analysts are paying close attention to the growth of the group's trading profit (+37% according to projections, just a few days before the meeting to be held on 25 July).
Sergio Marchionne, faced with these data, would have decided to burn time: not only will the top management of the truck and tractor company be completed within the month, but the board of directors could kick off a more demanding financial operation: the delisting of CNH, listed on Wall Street, of which Industrial controls just under 90%, and the landing on the US Stock Exchange of Industrial itself, a much more liquid stock.
TECHNOLOGY SUFFERS (DOWN STM)
AND SECURITIES WITH A HIGH DEBT
On the downside, the landslide of Stmicroelectronics continues (-3%) on the wave of the retreat of the chip sector in the United States. Not only were the fund's stocks downgraded by Morgan Stanley (including Stm from overweight to neutral) but bad news is coming from leading chip-making machinery manufacturers; both Novellus and Asml denounce a drop in orders of around 25 percent.
Among the non-performing securities, Mediolanum deserves a special note, in the sights of the Milan prosecutor's office for the "tip" received regarding an inspection by the Gd. Utilities and, in general, securities with higher leverage are also down: Enel, Eni and Telecom Italia are suffering.
