The Chinese squeeze on the rich, the probability of a tapering start by the Fed by the end of the year, the Delta variant and geopolitical tensions are reflected today on the world financial markets, with investors taking advantage of the celestial conjunction to realign the indices to the fundamentals of the economy and raise cash, after the good earnings of the last few months.
Risk aversion props up the dollar, sinks oil and leaves gold hesitant as metals go down.
After the decline of the Asian Stock Exchanges, the European lists close in the red. Overseas though Wall Street, which started with a minus sign, is now recovering supported by macro data. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 are currently in the green, even as energy stocks remain down.
In Europe, the budget is more serious due to luxury stocks, which overwhelm Paris -2,43% for the second consecutive day (lvmh -6,38%). The declines are more than a percentage point a London -1,5% and Frankfurt -1,27%; Better Amsterdam -0,73% and Madrid -0,69%.
Business Square loses 1,62% and drops to 25.928 points, dragged down by Moncler -6,12%, in black jersey yesterday too. The queen of duvets, like her colleagues from beyond the Alps, suffers from the possibility that the Beijing government imposes a tax on the super rich or, following the Chinese motto of buying, imposes duties on European firms. In the sector they go down for the same reason cucinelli -6,21% Tod’s -5,04% Ferragamo -4,74%.
The decline in oil stocks also weighs on the main basket: Tenaris -4,64%; Eni -2,8%; Saipem -2,75%.
New losses for the galaxy Agnelli, with Exor -3,46% and the subsidiaries Cnh -3,9% stellantis -3,56% Ferrari -2,8%.
Sales on Campari -2,74% and on banks. In fact, it finds space among the ten worst blue chips of the day Unicredit -2,71%. Off the main lineup it doesn't fare much better mps, -1,91%. According to Bloomberg, the Treasury is considering a capital increase for the Sienese bank of up to 3 billion euros in order to strengthen its capital solidity and comply with Unicredit's request to make the acquisition neutral for its capital ratios. The MEF's preferred path, the agency claims, would be that of an increase in option, so that shareholders can subscribe and not see their share diluted.
Defensive stocks hold, especially utilities: Italgas +1,22%; Terna +0,9%; Enel +0,85%; A2a +0,26%; Ivy +0,51%. Also shop on Amplifon +0,79%; nexi +0,77%; Recordati +0,35%; Diasorin + 0,11%.
Some tension is registered on the bond, with the spread between Italian and German 106-year growth to 2,5 basis points (+0,57%) and the BTP rate rising slightly to +XNUMX%.
The same parable is not found on US government bonds, whose prices are currently on the rise and yields on the decline, despite the minutes of the Fed's meeting at the end of July authorizing us to hypothesize a start of the withdrawal of its enormous financial support to the economy (120 billion a month) starting from the end of the year. Many bankers think that the jobs target, the true cynosure of monetary policy, can be achieved this year and data released today by the Labor Department further support this idea, as weekly jobless claims are at a 17-month low: 348.000 (-29 on the previous week), against estimates of 365.000. A result that makes US President Joe Biden rejoice via Twitter.
While waiting to see what comes out of the Jackson Hole meeting, which will bring together the world's financial elite next week, many analysts estimate that the Fed will announce its plan to reduce asset purchases as early as the September 21-22 policy meeting.
To compensate somewhat for the fears that this choice will have a critical impact on the economic recovery, already jeopardized by the resurgence of the pandemic, today the super-index of the US economy (LEI) arrives (drawn up by the private research group Conference Board,) which grew July by 0,9% to 116 points, after +0,5% in June (down from the initial +0,7%) and +1,2% in May. Expectations were for a rise of 0,7%. Already in April, the LEI index had fully recovered from the contraction caused by Covid-19, surpassing the previous peak of the index, reached in January 2020. Instead, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index fell in August, even if the conditions of the sector remain positive.
In this context index of dollar it strengthens by 0,3%. The euro-greenback exchange rate falls to the 1,169 area. Oil sinks, weighed down by the strength of the American currency. The Brent trades down about 3% to $66,20 a barrel; the WTI loses 3,3%, 63,05 dollars a barrel.
THEspot gold loses 0,27%, 1783,30 dollars an ounce.
