Not only bankers, as Mario Draghi points out: even the greats of technology have a heart. The Wall Street Journal's opening story is the reconstruction of the love affair between Elon Musk and Nicole Shanahan, wife of former friend Sergej Brin, one of the founders of Google who didn't take it all well: request for divorce and immediate rupture of relations between Alphabet and Tesla. The pink note lightens the news of the beginning of the week dominated by recovery of the dollar against the euro and yen, supported by the prospect of the next rate hike. But the rise is held back by fears about the economy: TBonds trade at 2,79%, significantly below the 3% barrier, confirming that, in addition to inflation, the markets fear the slowdown in the economy. “For now – reassures Treasury head Janet Yellen – I don't see the risk of a recession”. But months ago Yellen herself judged inflation "a transitory phenomenon".
The Nikkei index is in red, European futures down
- I Asian markets they reflect the atmosphere depressed by new signs of recession. In Tokyo, the Nikkei dropped 0,75%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,7%, Hang Seng Tech index -1,5%. CSI 300 of the Chinese Stock Exchange 0,7%.
- Starting in red also for i European lists: the EuroStoxx 50 index anticipates a drop of 0,7%.
- Last week closed with a +3,7%. Plus sign also for Milan +1,3% in the week of the Draghi government's resignation.
- I S&P500 futures they move just below parity. Wall Street's leading index fell 0,93% on Friday as it was reported that business activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years on inflation and rapidly rising interest rates.
The Treasury at its lowest since May, the BTP restarts from 3,3%
- They brake i bond yields. The 2,78% 1,03-year Treasury is at its lowest since May. The 3,3-year German Bund restarts from XNUMX%. The XNUMX-year BTP, penalized by the government crisis, yields XNUMX%.
- Brent and WTI oil were down 0,7%, for the fourth consecutive decline.
- Gold barely moved at 1.726 dollars an ounce. The week closed with a gain of 1,1%, after five consecutive declines.
- European natural gas at 159 euros per MWh.
- Bitcoin -4% to $21.800.
US rates at 3,5% by the end of the year. Yellen: There will be no recession
The financial week will still revolve around Fed decisions. The forecast is for a 75-point increase in rates, but there are those who do not rule out a more severe squeeze to bring down inflation which runs above 9 percent. Wall Street embraces the softer line in the belief that the race in energy prices is now winding down, while the risk of a recession is becoming serious.
Hence the forecast of a “only” 0,75% increase which will be followed by another half point in September and two more of 0,25% by the end of the year, which would mean a target of 3,5% , the highest since 2008. Then there will be a pause before the central bank starts cutting the cost of borrowing. The data on GDP for the second quarter should also be followed: in the event of negative growth, the US will officially enter a recession.
Today the German Ifo. Second quarter GDP during the week
Even Europe, which has absorbed without trauma the first rise in the cost of money since 2011, is looking at the GDP data for Italy, France and Germany as well as for the entire Eurozone to be released on Friday. It will be an opportunity to check whether the recession has already arrived or not. The week opens with the German Ifo index.
Today the quarterly Vodafone. Relay in Wolfsburg
More than the macro data, however, the corporate accounts will have to be followed. In the US they will rise to prominence Microsoft, Meta platforms, Amazon and Apple. An opportunity to verify the strength of the recovery of tech stocks (+13% in the last month). Also to follow Boeing and Pfizer.
Attention this morning to the price lists of the City: the accounts of Ryanair need Vodafone. In the old continent the spotlights are also turned on Volkswagen after resignation to the surprise of the ceo Herbert Diess, unseated in favor of Oliver Blume (number one of Porsche) for the problems that emerged in the management of the transition to electric, especially for the disagreements with the union.
The accounts of Italgas, Azimut rips with Assogestioni
A week full of events opens for Piazza Affari corporate appointments. Italgas opens the calendar this morning, the big banks, the planet Eni and Enel, Stellantis and the other Exor subsidiaries will follow in the next few days. And many other stars, starting with Moncler.
Eni. It has received only partial confirmation from Gazprom of its gas supply request in Italy for Saturday 23 July. The same behavior is also expected for the next few days.
Saipem. After the capital increase, Intesa San Paolo holds 3,423%, Eni 31,193%.
Intesa Sanpaolo. Fondazione Cariplo, which recently increased its stake in the bank from 3,9% to 4,8%, intends to increase it further.
Azimuth. Azimut Capital Management SGR and Azimut Investment SA communicated to Assogestioni their determination to withdraw from the association with effect from last July 1st.
Poste Italiane. Consob has suspended the investigation for the approval of the document relating to the takeover bid promoted by Poste Italiane on Sourcesense, pending additional information, for a period not exceeding 15 days.
AS Roma. At the tender deadline, Dan Friedkin's Romulus and Remus Investments has reached an overall stake of 95% of the club's share capital, the investment firm said in a statement on Friday, and will thus be able to proceed with the company's delisting. expected between the end of August and the beginning of September.
