Woe to be in a hurry. Nobody wants to make moves that could prove hasty in this last part of summer, conditioned by the moves of central banks. Awaiting Janet Yellen's intervention at the end of the week, the markets mark time: the optimism of Fed number two Stanley Fischer (the goal of full employment has now been achieved and the inflation target is close) makes think about an upcoming rate hike. But in January Fischer himself had spoken of four hikes for 2016, a forecast that has not materialised. So the dollar goes up, but not by much. On the other hand, oil slows down, with negative effects on Wall Street. Few expect a rate hike in September: according to CME FedWatch, the market prices this possibility at 20%. The same survey calculates that an increase in December is priced at 43%.
In this climate of expectation, the banking sector had a day of respite, favored by the expectation of theoutcome of the Ventotene summit. The meeting revealed Angela Merkel's willingness to support Matteo Renzi, who has launched "courageous reforms" that will allow Italy to have "a sustainable future". But the praise has not translated into a green light, for now, for further flexibility, given that "there is already a lot of it in the stability pact". In short, the game of chess is just beginning.
IN TOKYO, PMI MARKS TIME. PFIZER'S BIG SHOT
Asian stock exchanges in no particular order. In the final session, Tokyo marks an increase of 0,1%. Hong Kong loses 0,2% and Shanghai gains 0,2%. Seoul +0,3%. The performance of Japanese industrial production was sluggish, judging by the PMI index, up on July but still below the 50-point threshold, the borderline between expansion and stagnation.
Almost flat Wall Street. The Dow Jones index falls by 0,12%, S&P 500 -0,06%. The Nasdaq is up 0,12%. Among the blue chips, note the decline of Apple (-0,8%). In the limelight instead Pfizer (+0,5%), which bought the Californian biotech Medivation for 14 billion dollars (+19,8%). The Viagra giant can thus add to its portfolio the prostate cancer drug Xtandi, which has very high potential and has already generated $2 billion in revenues from its first sales.
BRENT IN DOWN: TREGUE IN NIGERIA, SHALE OIL STARTS AGAIN
The downside comes from oil. Brent-type crude marks a drop of 3%, to 49,4 dollars a barrel in the wake of the strengthening of the US currency. But other factors also matter: the number of active drilling rigs in the United States continues to rise, returning to 491, i.e. the February levels. Furthermore, the guerrillas of the Niger Delta have announced the cessation of military activities and participation in negotiations with the Lagos authorities. Nigeria's oil production, due to the conflict, is at its lowest level in the last twenty years.
On Wall Street, the energy sector lost 0,9%. Marathon Oil losing 7,3%, Exxon and Chevron losing about 0,7%. In Piazza Affari Eni falls (-0,6%). Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi said the sale of a stake in the Mozambique gas field should be closed by the end of the year. In his speech at the Rimini meeting, the manager also said that he is advancing the negotiation for the sale of a share of the Egyptian field of Zohr. Saipem (-2,7%) was yesterday's worst blue chip in Piazza Affari. Tenaris -1,5%.
MILAN BOUNCES, TREASURY AUCTIONS RETURN
Very volatile session yesterday for the European lists. In addition to the Ventotene summit, the candidacy of Nicolas Sarkozy for the 2017 presidential elections should be noted on the political level. Today, attention will be focused on PMI data in Europe, which should be substantially unchanged in August. Milan closed yesterday with a +0,36%, at 16.369 points, after having touched a minimum of 16.257 points. In red Paris (-0,33%), Frankfurt (-0,59%) and London (-0,61%). Madrid, the only other positive price list besides Piazza Affari, marks +0,06%.
Treasury auctions are back: on Wednesday evening, with the markets closed, the procedures for the 6-month BOT auction which will take place next Monday will be announced. Thursday will be the turn of the announcements of the medium/long-term auctions which will be held on Tuesday 30. The Italian secondary closed the session yesterday with a slight increase, however lower than that of the Bund. The spread thus widened to 120 bp. This determines a widening of the spread which reaches the area of 120 basis points.
OK TO CHEMCHINA (PIRELLI) IN SYNGENTA. MANY OMISSIS FOR RENAULT
On the corporate front, note the green light from the US antitrust for the purchase of the Swiss Syngenta by the Chinese ChemChina, the majority shareholder of Pirelli. The operation is worth 44 billion.
The Renault case explodes in Paris (+0,90%). Three of the 17 members of the government commission that investigated the harmful emissions of the group's engines have denounced that the most inconvenient and burning parts for the company have been eliminated from the report.
ANTITRUST OK TO ATLANTE, UBI AND BPER TREAT THE GOOD BANKS
The session in Piazza Affari was punctuated as usual by the movement of bank stocks, subject to cover-ups favored by the words of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, who untied the government's tenure from the outcome of this autumn's constitutional referendum.
Even more important was the confidence boost that came after the publication of the Antitrust decision in favor of the acquisition of control of Veneto Banca by Quaestio Capital Management through the Atlante Fund. The authority has in fact decided not to initiate any investigation into the transaction, deeming that it does not lead to "the establishment or strengthening of a dominant position in the markets concerned, such as to eliminate or substantially and lastingly reduce competition".
In the meantime, the auction for the good banks that emerged from the bank-saving decree is reopened. Sale Ubi Banca (+1,5%): the company could present an offer for the Nuova Cariferrara. Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna (+0,6%) is instead preparing to step forward for the Nuova Banca delle Marche and for the Nuova Banca Etruria. Intesa (+0,7%) and Monte Paschi (+0,4%) also accelerate towards the end.
DIVIDED ANALYST ON UNICREDIT, CALTAGIRONE STILL UP IN GENERALI
Unicredit does best of all: +1,3% after losing 8,4% in the three previous sessions. Out of 34 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, optimism prevails: 15 recommend buying the stock and 15 keeping it in the portfolio, while the other 4 suggest selling it. The average target price is 2,91 euros. Since the beginning of the year, the stock has fallen by 62,34%. On current consensus estimates, the expected P/E for this year is set at 5,91x.
In the insurance sector, Generali gained 0,6%. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone continues to accumulate shares in the Trieste-based company: last August 19 he bought 223.600 shares at 11,5 euros per share, for a total value of 2,571 million euros.
FLY MOLMED: THE EU APPROVES THE ANTICANCER TREATMENT
The long-distance tug-of-war continues between Mediaset +0,6% and Vivendi, pending the French group's quarterly report scheduled for Thursday 25. The spotlight is on on the purchases of Alfa paper made by the investment funds of Lazard, a traditional ally by Vincent Bolloré.
Setback for CNH Industrial (-2%), despite the rally on Wall Street of the competitor Deere (+13%). Fiat Chrysler is up 0,9%, Ferrari +0,5%. Autogrill +0,3% has completed the purchase of the restaurant business at the Los Angeles and Las Vegas airports for $36,8 million.
The best title was Molmed, +11% after the announcement of the green light by the EU Commission at theConditional marketing release for Zalmoxis, MolMed's first patient-specific cell therapy against leukemia and other high-risk blood cancers. It was yesterday's best title in Piazza Affari.
