Joe Biden, later having received Mario Draghi, yesterday put the Ukraine dossier back in his drawer to devote himself to the war that will decide the next US elections in November: the one against inflation, the specter that haunts American petrol pumps, where fuel has risen to a new record $4,37 a gallon. Biden has promised various interventions to curb prices, not even excluding the end of duties on Chinese goods. A fully-fledged offensive just a few hours after the announcement on today's price increase numbers (14.30 pm in Italy) which should signal the first signs of a slowdown in consumer prices, from 8,5 to 8,1%. It is the most awaited data from Wall Street (German data will be released today), even if the chorus of Fed governors yesterday reiterated that rates are destined to grow by at least half a point in the Bank's next meetings. In short, this time the Fed is thinking more of the real economy than of the needs of the Stock Exchange.
The expectation of better numbers on inflation favors the rise of futures on US markets this morning. The future of the EuroStoxx 50 index also performed well, up by 0,5%.
Asian price lists also benefit, including China. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock markets is up 2% within hours of the release of the inflation data. Probably also due to the restrictions on the movement of people, producer prices rose more than expected in April, +8% yoy. The consensus was +7,8%. Consumer prices accelerated last month, +2,1% from +1,5% in March.
The Hang Seng of Hong Kong it is up 1,7% thanks to the push of techs. TO Tokyo, Nikkei +0,3%. The yen has fallen to a 20-year low, prices are rising again. Kospi of Alone -0,2%. BSE Sensex of Mumbai -0,1%.
After a bright start, the US indices lost momentum during the session. The Nasdaq closed with an increase of 1%. S & P500 +0,2%. Way below the highs of the opening.
Il Wall Street Journal he points out that, in the face of the sales of the big houses, an army of individual investors is taking shape who are buying, enticed by the falling prices: 28 billion dollars in April.
Elon Musk said that "it is stupid to ban Trump from using Twitter": the former president will return to tweeting after the takeover bid.
Treasury Notes ten-year to 2,97%, from 3,04% yesterday. Federal Reserve board members speaking in the last few hours have more or less confirmed the trajectory of monetary tightening. Loretta Mester of the Cleveland Fed explained that, if inflation were to still be very high in the second half of the year, there might be a need to proceed with increases of 75 basis points. Raphael Bostic of the Atlanta Fed said tonight that the central bank might also consider being less aggressive.
Commodities rallied after a bearish start to the week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 0,7%. Petroleum Brent and WTI +1,5%, from -3% yesterday. US gas futures are up 1%. European gas +5%. Last night the Ukrainian gas operator said it will stop the flow of Russian gas starting today, following the destruction of some pumping infrastructure. Gazprom has specified that for technical reasons, it is not possible to send the gas through a high-rise pipeline.
Europe slows down after the opening of Wall Street
“The epicenter of this negative phase is and remains in the USA”, comments Giuseppe Sersale of Anthilia. The judgment is justified by the performance of yesterday's session. The European markets, thanks also to the trend of the Zew index and of Italian industrial production, raised their heads awaiting the indications on US inflation expected for today. But Wall Street's response has been weak. Meanwhile, the president of the New York Fed, John Williams, during an event in Germany, froze hopes: "To curb inflation - he said - the Federal Reserve should raise interest rates rapidly between now and the end of the year". And so in the afternoon the rise in the Old Continent's price lists largely subsided.
Btp below 3%, but mortgage yields rise
Against this backdrop, purchases of government bonds were reviewed. The 3-year BTP slips, albeit slightly, below 2,99%, to 15%, with an increase of 0,99 basis points on the eve. Even the German Bund at 9% (-1 basis points) falls below the XNUMX% barrier.
However, the first effects of the increase in yields are visible. For the first time in three years, rates on loans to households exceeded 2% (from 1,85% recorded in February).
Nagel (Bundesbank): the spread does not concern us. At the moment
According to Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank, the ECB must concentrate on fighting inflation in the area without worrying about the consequences of the increase in the spread. In the future, the banker said, we will have to deal with the fragmentation between the various countries. “But for now our mandate is another one”. Therefore, "the ECB should raise interest rates in July to prevent inflation from strengthening further".
Piazza Affari rises above 23 points.
The European stock markets thus achieved a rebound, but closed below the highs.
Piazza Affari rises by 1,04% and grabs the 23.069 basis points by a whisker, in line with Frankfurt (+1,17%).
Amsterdam (+0,54%), Paris (+0,51%), London (+0,35%) and Madrid (+0,09%) are lagging behind.
Industry, Italy has recovered to pre-pandemic levels
The data on industrial production for March gave a boost to the Italian market, surprisingly stable, while a significant reduction was expected. In any case, reports Paolo Mameli of Intesa Sanpaolo, "Italy remains the only one among the four main countries of the Eurozone to have more than recovered the pre-pandemic levels of industrial production (+2,7% compared to the levels of February 2020, against -1,4% in Spain, -5,4% in France and -9,4% in Germany). The cause is probably to be found in the smaller share of the production chain based in Asia and Eastern Europe, the areas where the greatest supply problems are occurring”.
Good news, surprisingly, also from the German Zew index: the data on confidence remains negative, but there is an improvement in sentiment.
Stockholm, Swedish matches fly (+24,5%)
Among the individual stocks, the surge in Swedish Match should be noted: +24,5% on the Stockholm Stock Exchange after confirming negotiations with Philip Morris for a possible takeover offer by the US cigarette giant.
Renault brakes in the final (-0,3%), already on the rise after the confirmation of the negotiations with the Chinese Geely for the sale of the Korean subsidiary.
Bfor superstars, Unicredit restarts
Banks rally in Piazza Affari. In great dust Bper (+7,85%), at the top of the list for the entire session after the quarterly accounts. Followed by Unicredit (+5,46%), rewarded by analysts after the first partial green light to the buyback by the ECB, and Intesa San Paolo (+1,7%). Credem and Pop Sondrio are also doing well.
Pirelli flies after the accounts
Very strong Pirelli (+3,91%) after the positive accounts of the first quarter of the year (ebot adjusted +35,4%) and the revision of the guidance on turnover, even if the company has limited its expectations on volumes. Türkiye and Romania compensated for the blockade of plants in Ukraine.
Stellantis Ok, but Tavares launches the battery alarm
Stellantis is also running (+1,17%), awarded by Berenberg with a buy. Carlos Tavares issued a warning yesterday. The sector, he said, could suffer battery supply shortages around 2025-2026. "And if there isn't a shortage of battery supplies, then there will be a significant dependence of the Western world on Asia."
In the Campari rally, today Sace comes to Tim's rescue
Campari also rallied (+2,7%) after the purchase of the Picon brand in France (+2,69%).
Live Tim (+2,60%). Today Sace will give the preliminary OK to the 3 billion guarantee on the company's loans.
Saipem's splash, uphill increase
Leonardo (-3%) and Diasorin (-2,65%) are in negative territory. But the black shirt goes to Saipem (-6,6%). The announcement of the top management of the oil service that aims to speed up the times for the planned capital increase of 2 billion, launching it in the summer, despite the tensions on the markets, weighed on the prices.
