The markets are preparing for the last session before the Greek vote. Wall Street will already be missing today, on vacation for Independence day. The US business houses, as well as the rating agencies, anticipated the comments made on the eve. According to Goldman Sachs, if the no wins, the yield on the Italian 3-year bond will rise to 11%. S&P goes so far as to say that Italy's debt financing burden could grow by XNUMX billion. “But the impact of Grexit – he adds – will still be limited”.
Under the pressure of similar predictions, the Stock Exchanges hold their breath suspended in a sort of limbo. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index finished down by 1,4% in a context of reduced trading. The Paris Stock Exchange fell by 1%, Frankfurt -0,7%. The spread instead remained on the levels of yesterday's session at 149 basis points with the 2,33-year yield at XNUMX%.
USA, EMPLOYMENT RISES LESS THAN EXPECTED
US stock markets are weak, in view of the long weekend and, above all, possible bitter Greek surprises upon returning to work on Monday. In the end, the Dow Jones index lost 0,16%, the S&P 500 around parity as well as the Nasdaq (-0,08%). Oil prices were also stable: the WTI closed again below 57 dollars.
On Wall Street, stock markets also recorded disappointment with the data on new hires: 223 in June, against a forecast of 230. The unemployment rate fell to 5,3%, still too high to predict a rate hike. The dollar thus slows down its run on the euro traded around 1,11. Oil prices were also stable: the WTI closed again below 57 dollars.
Asia is also slowing down. Tokyo is down 0,4%. The Nikkei index lost about 1% during the week, while the rest of the Asia Pacifis area also fell. Meanwhile, the Chinese stock markets are crumbling: Shanghai -6%. The drop since June 12 is about 30%.
IMF: ATHENS NEEDS 60 BILLION
Pending the Greek vote, the most decisive sortie comes from the Monetary Fund which published its analysis on Greece on June 26, before Tsipras' decision to call the referendum. Five months under Syriza's management, is the gist of the analysis, have brought the country to its knees. The abandonment of the reforms and the halt of the privatization plan weigh, while the GDP and tax revenues sink. To avoid falling into extreme poverty that "could last decades" they will provide financial aid for 60 billion over the next three years.
DRAGHI EXPANDS QE TO ENEL, SNAM, TERNA AND FERROVIE
Meanwhile, the ECB, which could bear the burden of pulling the plug on Greek banks (i.e. withdrawing Ela funds) in the event of a no victory, is preparing lines of defense in the event of the situation in Athens, now in "financial quarantine", you fall.
Yesterday Mario Draghi admitted thirteen new names, including four Italians, to the list of issuers whose bonds can be purchased by the ECB under the quantitative easing programme. The new Italian issuers admitted to the purchases are Enel, Snam, Terna and Ferrovie dello Stato whose bonds immediately jumped upwards on the market, up to 35 basis points. Beneficial effects also for other issuers.
RWE SHOCKS ELECTRICS, RETURNS SAIPEM'S SHARE
In Europe Utilities have risen (Stoxx of the sector +1,2%): the movement is led by the German Rwe up by 4,9% after Sigmar Gabriel, Angela Merkel's deputy social democrat, gave up introducing a tax on coal . At Piazza Affari Enel closed down 0,3%, Enel Green Power unchanged, Snam +1,4%.
Mixed performance of oil companies. Eni dropped by 1%. On the other hand, the Saipem share shone +2,37% which has already absorbed the effect of the suspension of the activities of its Scarabeo 5 platform, given in concession to Statoil: the loss of turnover for the current and next year will not be significant . Maire Tecnimont is also on the rise (+1,39% to 3,06 euros).
FCA IN THE SIGHT OF US ROAD SAFETY
The US Road Safety Agency yesterday accused Fiat Chrysler -2,2% for failing to notify defects in the Takata air bag system fitted to the group's cars within the sixty days envisaged. The effect of the increase in sales in the USA and Italy was thus nullified. Meanwhile, black news is coming from Brazil: the market is down by about 25%.
Cnh Industrial also fell (-1,8%). Finmeccanica lost 3%. StM -1,7%. Europe's leading semiconductor company has signed a five-year supply contract with China's Huawei worth $500 million. The agreement, signed on the occasion of a visit to France by Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang, should lead to an increase in orders from the semiconductor producer.
BANKS IN WITHDRAWAL. THE EMPLOYMENTS OF INTESA RISE
In Piazza Affari, the decline in the banking sector dragged the Ftse Mib down. The greatest losses were recorded by Monte Paschi -2,94%, Banca Carige -3,18%, Ubi Banca -2,72% which was already growing strongly on the eve. Intesa Sanpaolo -2,57%. In the first half of the year, the institute disbursed loans for 19 billion euros. In light of this, it could exceed the medium/long-term disbursement target of 37 billion envisaged for this year.
On the other hand, the amount invested in the last year and a half by the large foreign shareholders of Intesa Sanpaolo amounts to between 7,5 and 10 billion. These are the numbers revealed by CEO Carlo Messina during a conference dedicated to SMEs. Both Bpm -2,7% and Banco Popolare -2,4% are down. Unicredit -1,93% also closed in negative territory.
LUXURY DOWN, TELECOM HOLDS DOWN
New braking of luxury. Ferragamo -2,4% and Moncler -3,5% are down. Telecom Italia also fell -1,6%. Mediaset -0,4%.
