Industrial production in China recorded a 6,9% year-on-year growth, below analysts' expectations. Together with last week's data on aggregate credit weakness and the slowdown in retail sales (+11,9% on the year), the ongoing slowdown of the Chinese economy is confirmed, and now the third quarter GDP data is seen rising by 6,5-7,0%, below official targets. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan regional index (Tokyo is closed for holidays) is down 0,7%.
The Australian dollar is paying the price for the Chinese slowdown, which fell (against the US dollar) to its lowest level in 5 months, and will probably fall below 0,90. The euro instead strengthened, to 1,296 against the dollar, while the yen remained substantially at yesterday's low levels (107,2). Oil weakened again, and certainly not because of geopolitical problems, which continue to be acute.
The reason lies in a cyclical factor – the slowdown of China, the largest consumer of raw materials; and a structural one: the increased production of shale oil in America and elsewhere. Crude is at 91,2 $/b WTI (96,6 for Brent). Gold remains at yesterday's low levels: 1234 $/ounce. Stock futures on London and New York were negative (-0,3/-0,4%).
