Demand still solid for the German bund even if Germany had to raise yields slightly up 1,56% from the previous 1,5% to place the 4 billion bund at auction today (6,6 billion requested).
But just today from Germany came a double trip for the euro: not only do the data released today by Istat indicate that Berlin is holding back our exports in November (-3,8% in the flows of Italian exports to the country, +3,6% overall thanks to South East Asia) but the locomotive late in the morning, the European Union also released growth estimates for 2013 which are down. Official estimates from Berlin indicate that in 2013 the German GDP will rise by only 0,4%, below the 1% previously estimated. The recovery is expected in 2014 with a +1,6%.
E fears about growth sink the European Stock Exchanges all in the red after the alarm also launched in the morning by the World Bank: Piazza Affari is in the dark with -1,41% and the low spread remains at 268, London -0,45%, Frankfurt -0,29%, Paris - 0,15%.
La World Bank in its economic forecasts it sees global growth for 2013 at 2,4%, only slightly better than the weakness of 2012 and against the +3% previously forecast. But this time the problem is not so much Europe as the quarreling United States. In fact, the battles over the US budget are weighing heavily and are putting "the world economy at risk more than even a renewed crisis in the eurozone could do". The United States will grow by 1,9% but could slip into a recession if the tax cuts expected in early March arrive, while the weakness of the eurozone should still continue throughout the year (-0,1% expected). Developing countries are growing but at the slowest rate in the last decade: China is estimated at +8,4%.
Europe is also weighed down by the strength of the euro which remains at 1,3316 against the dollar and inflation that remains stable in the absence of economic growth. Now the markets are looking to the USA where the accounts of some large banks such as Goldman Sacha and JpMorgan and some macro data such as the weekly mortgage index, the December inflation data and industrial production are expected. The Fed's Beige Book is expected in the evening.
In Piazza Affari, the sales hit the banks: Mediobanca -3,96%, Banco Popolare -3,46%, Intesa -3% and Unicredit - 2,97%. The IMF will arrive in Milan on Monday to assess their state of health and put the situation of suffering into focus. A source from the institutions involved explained that this is a long-planned visit which aims to draft, later this year, a report on the country's financial stability that is now mandatory for the 25 countries whose banks are systemically important.
Mediaset down -3,8% in the wake of the downgrade of JP Morgan, who cut the rating on the group's stock to neutral from overweight and who advises "to take profit now on the shares and wait for a better entry point in the wake of an improvement in the advertising market".
Going against the trend at the top of the Ftse Mib Tod's +1,64% after the improvement in the target price of Nomura, Buzzi Unicem +1,36%, Salvatore Ferragamo +1,14%, Tenaris +0,65%. On the rest of the list, Dmail jumped by 17% thanks to speculation on the arrival of a new investor for the local newspaper publishing company.
