European stock markets confirmed their rise in the last session of the week, after the handsome gains in Tokyo (+1,81%) and the positive start on Wall Street. Meanwhile, the dollar is flattening (the euro remains in the 1,16 area), while bitcoin soars (which reaches 60 thousand dollars, to then fall back) and oil continues to rise. Wti exceeds 82 dollars a barrel, while Brent approaches 85 dollars (84,74).
Piazza Affari progresses by 0,81% and targets 26.500 points, despite the mixed ending of the banks and the negative sign of defensive stocks such as utilities. After the crash on the eve, Leonardo rebounded by 0,87% and archived a volatile day, still experienced in the sign of relations with Boeing.
In the rest of Europe, Amsterdam +1,21% remains in pole position, followed by Frankfurt +0,8%, Madrid +0,78%, Paris +0,63%. Outside the single currency area, London scores +0,37%, on the day of the stabbing of a parliamentarian in church and with 45 new Covid positives in 24 hours (but out of over a million swabs), a trend that raises some question about free everyone without a mask, indoors and outdoors, in the English style.
However, from one side of the ocean to the other, travel and holiday titles are appreciated with the reopening of the United States, starting from November 8, to vaccinated people coming from Great Britain and the EU. In the afternoon, US macro data and the quarterly data beyond Goldman Sachs' expectations contributed to supporting risk appetite, with the major North American banks confirming their strength.
Among the day's macroeconomic data, investors were pleased by the unexpected increase in US retail sales in September. The increase is 0,7% to 625,4 billion dollars, after +0,9% in August (revised from the initial +0,7%); estimates were for a decline of 0,2%. Compared to September 2020, retail sales jumped by 13,9%. Fears remain for the future due to the continued shortage of goods which could weigh especially on Christmas shopping.
Against a datum that bears witness to the state of health of the stars and stripes economy (and removes fears of "stagflation"), however, another has come out that seems to cast doubt on the future: in fact, the confidence of US consumers. The University of Michigan's monthly preliminary index (which appears to have often spotted a slowdown before it occurs) is 71,4, higher than the 71 mid-September reading, but lower than the final reading of 72,8. last month and against expectations for a figure of 73. Compared to a year ago, it drops by 12,7%. As regards inflation, one-year expectations rose from 4,6% to 4,8%, while five-year expectations decreased from 3% to 2,8%.
In this context, yields on government bonds are rising, even in Europe, despite yesterday Christine Lagarde reiterated that the increase in inflation in the euro area is temporary and is not reflected in wages. On the secondary, the 10-year BTP rate rose to +0,87% (from +0,84% at the previous closing) and that of the Bund -0,17% (from -0,23%). The spread widens to 104 basis points (+2,29%). The Italian public debt rises again: in the new Bank of Italy survey at the end of August it adds 8,5 billion compared to the previous month, resulting in 2.734,4 billion.
To support the recovery, the Ministry of Economy and Finance has decided to proceed with the fourth issue of the BTP Futura, the only government bond intended exclusively for private savers and similar. The duration this time is 12 years. As with previous issues, it will be possible to subscribe for the security at the bank, at the post office or via home banking from Monday 8 November to Friday 12 November (until 13,00 pm), unless closed early. The mechanism of the double loyalty bonus, linked to the growth of the national economy, remains confirmed.
On the political front, it should be noted that in Germany progress is being made towards the formation of a new government: the so-called "traffic light" coalition (SPD, Greens and Liberals) has signed a political document for the start of negotiations and the birth of a executive which should be led by the social democratic leader Olaf Scholz.
In Italy, the d-day of the green pass, which marks the obligation of the certificate in the workplace, passed amid many protests, but without the feared paralysis. The government has also given the green light to the tax decree, with friction between the Lega and 5 Stars on the refinancing of the basic income.
Piazza Affari did not let these tensions cool down, benefiting from the generally favorable climate for risk. On the Ftse Mib, the queen blue chip is Cnh, +3,37%, which experienced a volatile session yesterday due to supply problems and the consequent temporary closure of some production sites in Europe. Oil stocks return to the top of the list, with further increases in oil prices: Tenaris +3,13%; Eni +1,9%.
Among the banks, Intesa stands out +2,04%, in a strong sector throughout Europe and in a market that looks with interest at the awaited new wave of consolidation in Italy. According to Reuters sources, the Treasury is considering a six-month extension of the deadline for accessing corporate merger incentives (until June 2022).
For Equita, if confirmed, this element "supports the speculative appeal of the sector for the coming quarters". Leonardo recovers part of the losses on the eve, after specifying that a sub-supplier that the company no longer uses supplied defective components to Boeing. The group led by Alessandro Profumo considers itself the injured party in the matter and has not supplied titanium components for Airbus programmes.
Shy Generali, +0,35%, on which acquisitions by Leonardo Del Vecchio continue. On October 13, the patron of Luxottica, through Delfin, bought 350 shares on the market, equal to 0,02%, thus bringing his stake to 5,48%. The entire pact, which also includes Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and the CrT Foundation, now +13,28%. The decreases are led by Banca Bper -1,41%, with Telecom -1,06%, Hera -0,74%, Atlantia -0,68%, Poste -0,6%.
