The second quarter on the Asian markets starts on the right foot. The push comes from the Tankan, the super-index of the economy, which signals the good state of health of businesses. The Topix index advanced 0,4%, trailing Hong Kong, up 0,5%.
The recovery of oil continues. Brent is trading at 53,4 dollars a barrel (+1%) this morning: last week North Sea crude gained 4%, the best week since the beginning of the year. The euro appreciated against the dollar to 1,067, from 1,065 on Friday night. Over the weekend, the New York Fed chairman said there is no rush to raise interest rates.
Chinese stock exchanges remain closed both today and tomorrow, while Beijing prepares for President Xi Jingping's big American trip, welcomed by Donald Trump's bellicose words on North Korea: "If China doesn't move - said the president in a interview with the Financial Times – we'll do it. This time - he added, speaking of Beijing's trade surplus - I won't talk about duties. But I'll tell them that it can't go on like this."
BAGS INCREASED BY 4.800 BILLION SINCE JANUARY
It is in this geopolitical framework that the markets reopen after filing a golden quarter in which the total capitalization grew by 4.800 billion dollars. An impressive and widespread rise, with some surprises: the Mexican peso, for example, recorded the largest rise since 1977, denying forecasts of a collapse under pressure from the new US administration. On Wall Street, the S&P500 index gained 5,8%, while the Nasdaq (+9,9%) is close to 6 points. In Asia, the Chinese stock exchanges shine: Hong Kong +9,6%, Shanghai +4,4% since the beginning of the year. Conversely, due to the strong yen, the Tokyo Stock Exchange shows a negative performance of 1%. In Europe, Frankfurt leads the race: +7,2% to 12.312, i.e. just a breath away from the historic record of 12.374 points set in April 2015. In Piazza Affari, at the top since January 2016, the FtseMib index gained in three months 6,5%.
BUT THE THREAT OF US DUTIES WEIGHS. AND EUROPEAN QE DOWNS
But now? The boost ensured by Donald Trump's electoral promises is fading, in the absence of concrete results in the first 100 days. But the mood of the markets could be influenced by the start of the tariff war proclaimed by the US administration. Furthermore, April will be conditioned by the forthcoming French elections, with inevitable repercussions on the debt markets, including BTPs. Finally, the attitude of the central banks advises caution: the Fed is determined to proceed with a soft tightening, ie a second rate hike in June. The ECB remains expansive but from this month Quantitative Easing purchases have dropped to 60 billion a month, against 80.
NOT ONLY XI: PMI INDEXES TODAY. TV DUEL BETWEEN MACRON AND LE PEN
The most important event of the week will undoubtedly be the visit of Chinese President Xi Jingping to Donald Trump, who on April 6 and 7, after dismissing Egyptian President Al Sisi tomorrow on a visit to Washington, will welcome the guest arriving from Beijing at his residence in Florida. It is probable that the meeting will register very heated tones.
Trump shows up at the meeting after signing two decrees that have the flavor of a trade war declaration. The first involves a large-scale investigation to identify the causes of the US trade deficit country by country, product by product. The second provision provides for a tightening of anti-dumping measures to combat unfair competition and hit foreign governments that support their products with subsidies.
The spotlights are also on the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, on the numerous interventions of the various US central bankers and on the data on the US labor market to be released next Friday: 175 new jobs are expected.
The slowdown in inflation in March, on the other hand, dismissed the hypothesis of an acceleration in tapering (the slowdown in purchases) by the ECB. The roadmap remains confirmed: purchases for 60 billion a month for the whole of 2017, then we'll see.
TODAY CAR SALES DATA IN ITALY AND USA
The macro agenda foresees the publication of the PMI indices in Europe and the manufacturing ISM in the USA on Monday. In evidence, after the declines of the last few months, the data on car registrations in March in the USA. The data on sales in Italy will also be released in the evening.
During the week there will be the second TV duel between the eleven candidates for the Elysée. Leading the polls are Marie Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the centrist candidate who has garnered the support of Socialist Prime Minister Manuel Valls. S&P will update Paris' debt rating on Friday.
THE DEF BEING REVIEWED BY THE ECOFIN. ALITALIA, LAST CALL
The hot topic for Italy will be the drafting of the Def (Economics and Finance Document). On the table is the need to respect the commitment with Europe by preparing measures for 3,4 billion: in this sense, the Document will outline the macroeconomic guidelines that the Government intends to follow in the coming months, but we will have to wait for the understand in detail what interventions you intend to take.
The dossier will be the subject of discussion at the Ecofin summit on Saturday. The resources should come from the fight against VAT evasion and the increase in tobacco excise duties (2,3 billion in total). No less than 1 billion in semi-linear cuts to ministry spending.
Tension is always high on the Alitalia front. Last Friday, shareholders confirmed their willingness to support the company's relaunch. But in order to be able to restart, however, the company must sign an agreement with the unions who rejected the industrial plan without appeal and called a strike on Wednesday 5 April.
A2A AVANZA, EXOR BOD AND MEETINGS OF THE FORMER POPULAR AGENDA
At Piazza Affari A2A presents the results at the end of 2016 and the update of the industrial plan. The company announced that it has signed a letter of intent with some utilities in Northern Lombardy, Acsm Agam (Como and Monza), Aspen Varese, Lario Reti (Lecco) and Valtellina electric company.
Two freshmen for Piazza Affari. On Tuesday 4 it will make its debut on the Unieuro list after last week's IPO. Trading on the BFF Banking Group will begin on Friday 7th. The reopening of the public offer of Lactalis on Parmalat will end on Tuesday. The board of directors will be held on Wednesday 5 for the approval of the quarterly Exor.
The budget meeting season begins. The meeting of Ubi Banca shareholders is scheduled for Friday. Saturday 8 will be the turn of Banco Bpm (first meeting after the merger between Bpm and Banco Popolare) and Bper (the renewal of the board is on the agenda with the intervention of Assogestioni).
TODAY THE ACCOUNTS OF VENETO BANCA. IT IS DEALING WITH THE ECB
Another “week of passion” for Veneto banks should also be followed. After the results of Banca Popolare di Vicenza for 2016, which closed with a loss of 1,9 billion and capital requirements below the threshold set by the European Central Bank. Today it will be Veneto Banca's turn to lift the veil on last year's accounts. And in financial circles a result in the 'red' is expected, even if less heavy than that from Vicenza.
SAVE, AGREE WITH FUNDS. IPO AT 21 EUROS
Enrico Marchi, says a note published late yesterday evening, has signed an agreement with the funds of Deutsche Asset Management and InfraVia Capital Partners for the sale of the controlling stake in Save to a vehicle jointly owned by the funds and by Marchi himself. Morgan Stanley will sell its indirect stake in the vehicle at a value of 21 euros per share, a price at which a tender offer will have to be launched. In the event of completion of the transaction, Enrico Marchi and the funds will stipulate a shareholder agreement for joint control of the company that manages the Venice airport.
