European stock markets rear their heads after yesterday's slide and close the week on a positive note, helped in the morning by the optimism of Asia and in the afternoon by the matching performance of Wall Street.
The tough stance of central banks against inflation and the many challenges that still await the global economy (as the IMF and ECB said today in Davos), however, are holding back the appetite for risk, which has been nourished so far by the change in policy of China in the fight against Covid.
Europe in green, Madrid stands out
Business Square it appreciates by 0,7% to 25.775 basis points, with Frankfurt + 0,79% Paris + 0,63% Amsterdam +0,4% and London +0,3%. It stands out above all Madrid, +1,39%, supported by Cellnex Telecom +9,33%, targeted by American Tower and the Brookfield fund according to press reports.
In New York runs the Nasdaq (+1,5%) and fly A +4%, but after announcing the dismissal of 12 employees of the subsidiary Google. This is yet another sign that mega techs are trying to take cover and prevent future evils.
It's brilliant Netflix (+6,2%) with the announced round of seats and the leap in season ticket holders.
On the foreign exchange market theeuro-dollar it is not far from the 1,08 level which it has been hovering around for several days.
The Petroleum, with Brent at 86,38 dollars a barrel, +0,26%.
Instead, it turns on again gas, pushed by the wave of frost over Europe. The future on the Amsterdam market gains more than 10% and exceeds 67 euros per Mwh.
Spreads and rates on the rise
The session closed in the red for the Italian paper thanks to the macro scenario outlined by the ECB, the IMF and the Bank of Italy and the leap in Japanese inflation (+4% in December) to a 40-year high. The yield of ten-year BTP benchmark goes back to 3,97% against the Bund at +2,13% and lo spread it widens to 185 basis points, with a leap of 5,32%.
IMF, ECB and Bank of Italy: watch out for growth and inflation
Yesterday in Davos Christine Lagarde it disappointed those who expected softer tones on the next rate hikes. Today the ECB president intervened again to say that the reopening of China, after the restrictions due to the pandemic, will probably increase inflationary pressures globally, due to a greater consumption of raw materials by the world's second largest economy.
For the president of the International Monetary Fund Kristalina Georgieva instead the price run shows signs of slowing down, but it is still traveling too fast. The global economic prospects are less negative than feared a few months ago, thanks to the Chinese recovery, but caution is needed, also because the war in Ukraine remains an "enormous risk" for confidence, especially in Europe.
He also spoke of growth and inflation today Bankitalia in his Bulletin. Inflation will drop but will remain high again this year in Italy, according to Via Nazionale, which estimates an average of 6,5%. It will return to around 2,6% only in 2024. The decline "strongly depends on the hypothesis of a progressive decrease in the prices of raw materials, the effects of which would be only partially offset by the acceleration in wages".
As regards the economic growth of the Belpaese, the central institute has improved its estimates by pil 2022 to +3,9%, but in 2023 it will drop to +0,6% (from +0,4% previously assumed). In 2024 the estimate was "corrected slightly downwards (+1,2%) due to a more contained increase in consumption".
Attention then to gas: in the event of a halt in energy supplies from Russia, the GDP will fall by almost 1% both in 2023 and in 2024. It must also be remembered that the expensive energy is responsible for over two thirds of inflation in Italy.
In Piazza Affari: leap of Saipem and mixed banks
One of the most effervescent titles of the Ftse Mib is Saipem, which has gained more than 21% since the beginning of the year and today leads the way on all blue chips with a leap of 8,56%. Galvanizing the stock in today's session was the news that the oil service was awarded two offshore contracts for a total of approximately 900 million dollars in a context of a general recovery in investments in the oil sector.
It is also confirmed in rallies Iveco +3,95%, which in these first weeks of 2023 grew by a percentage close to 31%.
He is in pole position Generali Ass, +2,25%, on the day of the launch of the buyback up to 210 million euro.
The banks are opposed. In particular, the two big names are placed at the antipodes of the sector, Unicredit +2,31% and Understanding -1,91%. Among the minors mps, +0,35%, closed a volatile session on a positive note. The president of the Sienese institute, Patrizia Grieco, informed the MEF that she will not be available for a renewal of the office due to expire with the next assembly called to approve the 2022 financial statements.
Shines instead the Credit Emiliano, +4,6%, with Deutsche Bank taking the recommendation to 'buy' from 'hold' and the target price to 9,3 euros from the previous 6,9, in the context of a study on Italian banks in view of the quarterly season and on expectations of a series of positive results.
The worst blue chip of the day is Amplifon, -2,72%, with Equita which worsened its estimates on the company's accounts. I'm in red Diasorin -1,69% A2a -1,84% Pirelli -1,18%.
Out of the main basket stores a gray sitting there Juventus, -0,42%, on the day in which the Public Prosecutor's Office, for the capital gains case, requested 9 penalty points in the current championship for the Juventus team, as well as the inhibition of 20 months and 10 days for Paratici, 16 months for Agnelli, 12 months for Nedved, Garimberti and Arrivabene, 10 months and 20 days for Cherubini .
