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STOCK EXCHANGES CLOSURE NOVEMBER 16 – Btp under 4% and spread at 193: will the ECB ease its grip?

The reduction in the yields of the BTP and of the bond market in general suggests a cautious easing of monetary policy in the hypothesis that inflation is reaching its peak

STOCK EXCHANGES CLOSURE NOVEMBER 16 – Btp under 4% and spread at 193: will the ECB ease its grip?

The geopolitical tensions unleashed overnight by the fall of a missile in Poland eased, but market sentiment was bruised. Some investors are taking advantage of some profit-taking after the recent rally, triggered by a slowdown in US inflation and hopes for a more dovish Fed. In Europe, however, the price rush it does not stop and, on the contrary, updates its highs for 41 years in Great Britain (+2% in October, +11,1% per year). In Italy, Istat revises the inflation figure for October to 11,8% from 11,9%, which however remains at its highest level since March 1984.

Il ten-year BTP however it is not affected and the rate falls below 4% as it has not happened for some time.

In the equities, the European lists closed today's session with various shades of red and Wall Street moves weak. Technologists withdraw after the progress made on the eve; The Nasdaq it dropped 1,5%. 

Weak Europe: down Mercedes and Air France

In Europe Business Square it loses 0,68% and falls back to 24.531 points. Red is brighter a Frankfurt, -1%, weighted by auto stocks as, according to a report, Mercedes Benz (-5,72%) cut the prices of its electric vehicles in China by up to $33.000 due to sales delays. 

Sales on technology stocks penalize Amsterdam -1,02%. Bad Madrid -1,08%. Paris limits damage to 0,52%, but collapses Air France-Klm  (-10,72%) after having said its intention to offer subordinated bonds convertible into new shares for 300 million euro. The decline is also fractional a London -0,26%.

Overseas Wall Street, after a jarring opening, continues in negative territory.

Worst stock on the S&P 500 is the retail giant Target (-15%) after disappointing quarterly earnings and a negative outlook for the coming months. In the macroeconomic context, retail sales in the US in October, however, exceeded estimates (+1,3%) after the unchanged figure for September.

The flame on the dollar goes out

On the currency market, the flame of the dollar is extinguished, triggered by the risks of an extension of the war. L'EUR section in progress around 1,039. 

Among commodities, the Petroleum: the Brent contract expiring in January 2023 loses 2% and is currently trading at around 92,90 dollars a barrel. US weekly inventories disappoint.

The positive phase of government bonds continues, after the data on US inflation released in recent days. The 3,73-year Treasury sees a rate down to 4,384%, although the inversion of the yield curve is accentuating and the two-year bond shows a rate up to XNUMX%.

Falling Rates in the Eurozone; Btp 10 years below 4%

Rates also fall in the euro area and lo spread between the Italian and German ten-year bond it falls further to 193 basis points (-1,7%), after yesterday's big drop.

Il Btp 10 years shows a yield of 3,92% and the Bund of the same duration of 2,09%.

According to the governor Ignazio Visco, the ECB will have to continue its restrictive action, with rate increases, but the reasons for implementing this action in a less aggressive way are also growing.

Meanwhile, Eurotower, in its November Financial Stability Report, writes that the risks to financial stability in the euro area "have increased" amid energy shocks, high inflation and low growth and with financial conditions that are getting worse and Vice President Luis de Guindos observes that "the probability of a technical recession in the euro area has increased".

As for the new issue of BTP Italy, at the end of the last day of the offer, the security maturing in November 2028 obtained requests for over 1,85 billion euros, with 71.645 contracts signed. The total request, also including funding relating to the first two days, was approximately 7,28 billion euro, in line with the June issue.

Piazza Affari defends itself with Leonardo

To defend Piazza Affari, in a day of sales, he provides Leonardo, +2,17%, best blue chip of the day in an overall effervescent sector in Europe following the growth of tensions over the war in Ukraine. At the end of the meeting of the ambassadors of the Atlantic Council, the secretary general of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, however, threw a lot of water on the fire of the Polish incident. “We have no indications that it was a deliberate attack in Poland. And we don't know that Russia is planning attacks against NATO. It was an incident of the Ukrainian defense but it is not the responsibility of the Ukrainians.

Utilities are positive with Ivy + 1,54% Enel + 0,57% A2a +0,62%, while energy producers try to understand what effect a tax on extra profits diverted to profits could have. Eni yields 0,82%.

“An extraordinary taxation on 'excess profits' seems less dangerous for the utilities sector in 2022, considering that almost all companies in the sector will record a lower consolidated profit due to the huge losses in the retail segment, as well as 40% of Hydro production less. Instead, it represents a regulatory risk for 2023”, comments Equita.

Among the oil stocks it remains in cash Tenaris +0,48%, while the realizations penalize Saipem -2,84%.

Among the banks it still stands out Bpm bank + 1,39%.

The black jersey of today's stage of the blue chips goes to Amplifon -3,74%. Letter about Telecom -2,75%, also weighed down by Fitch's rating cut to "BB-". Down Stm –2,62%, after yesterday's rally.
Stocks outside the main basket are in red Mfe A (-1,07%) ed Mfe B (-4,14%) after the third quarter results in line or slightly weaker than expected.

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