The first steps of theIsrael-Hamas peace agreement European stock markets are not heating up, closing weak today, while Wall Street retreats in the late morning, after the previous day's record highs. In the calm market, Piazza Affari stands out negatively, -1,59% (42.7914 basis points), dragged down by a thoroughbred like Ferrari, -15,41%. The shares of the Maranello-based company began to collapse this morning during the capital market day and it seems that the 2030 plan disappointed, given that the company raised its guidance for 2025. According to Citi, the new five-year forecasts are "below our downward estimates and reflect management's prudent approach". Construction and cement stocks, on the other hand, closed a lively session, on the prospect of the reconstruction of Gaza. In the rest of Europe, Frankfurt held firm -0,02%, while Paris drops 0,23% waiting to understand which path it will take the ongoing political crisisMadrid fell by 0,83%, Amsterdam by 0,23%, and London by 0,5%.
Wall Street down
Overseas, Wall Street is declining fractionally (DJ -0,41%, S&P 500 -0,42%, Nasdaq -0,44%), having fluctuated in recent days in parallel with the belief or otherwise that the AI business is proving to be a bubble. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, spoke on the topic today, saying in an interview with the BBC that Artificial intelligence “is real” and “will bring benefits”, but the path will not be filled only with successes and "part of the money invested will be lost".
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The manager also believes that US stocks are at high risk of collapse. A correction could occur within six months to two years. "If we're talking probabilities, I see a higher probability of a market collapse than others think or what the market is pricing in. If the market sees a 10% chance, I'd say we're at 30%."
Meanwhile, investors today too, fasting for macro data due to the ongoing shutdown, are looking ahead to the Fed's next moves. Yesterday, minutes from the latest meeting revealed that the central bank is open to further rate cuts, even though some governors were cautious about inflation. Today, Chairman Jerome Powell didn't say a word on the matter, so statements from other board members are awaited. In stocks, airline stocks are buoyant after Delta Air Lines reported record third-quarter revenue and upgraded its outlook.
Euros down
The euro continues to fall on the foreign exchange market, It is currently trading below 1,16 against the dollar.The crisis of a regional heavyweight like France continues to be felt on the single currency. At the latest ECB meeting, members of the Governing Council were divided between those who see inflation risks "leaning downward in the medium term" and those who "see them leaning upward." In general, "the external inflation forecasts for 2026 and 2027 are above the latest projections" formulated by the ECB. hedge funds instead bet on the dollar.
Among the raw materials Gold continues to move above $4.000 an ounce, but prices are falling after spot gold hit a new record. Oil futures are weak: Brent -0,59%, at $65,86 a barrel.
Piazza Affari, Buzzi reigns supreme
Buzzi, up 5,06%, is the leading blue chip of the day, and in the cement sector, outside the main basket, Cementir, up 9,96%, is also standing out. The prospect that the reconstruction of Gaza could bring good business, is supporting prices. Telecom, up 2,84%, remains in the spotlight, returning to the forefront today after a lull the day before. Utilities are performing well: Italgas, up 1,25%, Terna, up 0,97%, and A2a, up 0,71%. Oil stocks mixed Eni leads the way, up 0,6%. Bank stocks are weak, with the exception of Bper, up 0,97%. Among the heaviest decliners is Unicredit, down 1,43%.
Banco Bpm loses 0,42%, but remains at the center of much media speculation as a potential protagonist in the next phase of the banking game, along with Montepaschi -0,67%. In particular, Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS, told Il Sole 24 Ore that "there is room for new hubs in Italy, and MPS has all the credentials to play a major role in the next phase." Among the open dossiers could be the Piazza Meda deal. Other press sources, however, suggest that Banco BPM wants to prevent the government from blocking the deal with Crédit Agricole, while others have submitted an expression of interest in Banca di Asti, in which it already holds a 9,9% stake.
The pharmaceutical sector is also in the red, with Recordati down 2,68% and Diasorin down 1,52%. The sector was buoyed today by the news that Novo Nordisk (down 1,25% in Copenhagen) will acquire Akero Therapeutics (up 16,60% on the Nasdaq), a U.S. biotech specializing in drugs for obesity-related metabolic and liver diseases, for up to $5,2 billion in cash. A day of gains for Milanese luxury stocks: Moncler -2%, Cucinelli -1,59%.
Spreads slightly higher ahead of S&P Global rating announcement
The secondary market closes a session with little movement, waiting for S&P Global will update its rating on Italy tomorrow, currently BBB+ with a stable outlook. Experts expect the rating not to be revised, as the prospect of weakening growth offsets recent progress in public finances. The eurozone's third-largest economy expects its deficit to fall to 3% of GDP this year for the first time since the pandemic, but the economic outlook is weighed down by the negative impact of US tariffs, which, according to government estimates, will shave 0,5% off GDP in 2026. The spread between the Italian and German 10-year bonds is expected to close close to yesterday's levels at 84 basis points, with yields of 3,54% and 2,71%, respectively.
