The big fear seems to have already passed. The markets, reassured by the absence of negative surprises from US inflation, are in a hurry to exorcise the ghosts evoked by the crisis of American regional banks. A sudden turnaround, even too much if you consider that Moody's yesterday put First Republic Bank and five other US banks under observation in view of a downgrade. Bad central banks, with the ECB in the lead, are in a hurry to resume the strategy of increases called into question by the bank failures.
• Futures both in Europe and on Wall Street this morning reflect a climate of uncertainty also justified by the new military tensions: a Russian plane was intercepted this morning over Estonia.
Hong Kong restarts, new chip factories for Samsung
• The Asian bags. Hong Kong's Hang Seng recovers after yesterday's losses: +1,3% thanks to the boost from tech.
• Worry Shanghai Composite gained 0,7% on the day of the publication of Chinese data on consumption and industrial production. The former did well, up 3,5%. below forecasts industrial production, + 2,4%.
• The bag of Tokyo is around parity. The minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan show how compact the board is in the decision to keep all the instruments of the ultra-expansionary monetary policy in force and active.
• The Kospi the Seoul Stock Exchange is up 1,5%. Samsung announced today the construction of six new chip factories. In South Korea, unemployment fell to 2,6%, from 2,9% in January. The total unemployed are 743.000, about one hundred thousand less than the previous month.
Wall Street bounces. Meta +5% cuts 10 seats
• Yesterday the US stocks interrupted a negative streak of five sessions. The Dow Jones it closed with an increase of 1,1%. S & P500 +1,65% and Nasdaq + 2,1%.
• Fly Meta +5% after the announcement of 10 new layoffs.
• L Treasury Notes at ten years it reaches a yield of 3,68%, about ten basis points more than yesterday morning.
• Data released yesterday afternoon showed that in the United States thecore inflation it goes down very slowly: the first cause is rents. This component of the cost of living contributed about 70% to the monthly increase in February, but also the rest is not decelerating at a rapid pace: super core inflation, the one that subtracts rents, has gone from +6,2% in January to +6,1% in February.
• Theeuro dollar trades at 1,074, little move. The US currency is in fifth consecutive decline, at its lowest level in a month, mainly driven by the banking crisis, but secondly also by the slowdown in US inflation.
S&P promotes European banks. Btp, yields on the rise
• The temperature of the European markets is "tepid", according to the opinion of CNBC. On the one hand, the relief for yesterday's market recovery dominates, on the other, expectation for the ECB returns to weigh heavily: the half point increase in rates is almost obvious, but the guidance that will emerge from the press conference will be even more important by Christine Lagarde.
• The 2,42-year Bund trades at 2,26% from 4,25%. 4,17-year BTP to XNUMX% from XNUMX%.
• The rating agency S&P Global has aligned itself with those who claim that there are "limited risk of contagion” from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. “It is unlikely” that institutions from the Old Continent have “significant direct exposures” to Svb while “we don't see any European bank among those we evaluated that has the same funding and business profile” as the Californian institution.
Gold +6% this week. Bitcoin over $25
• Gold at 1.900 dollars an ounce it opens down by 0,2%, consolidating the excellent starting point of the last five sessions which yielded a return of around +6%.
• Bitcoin up slightly to $24.780. Yesterday it went over $25 for the first time since June in the wake of the enthusiasm generated by the bailout of SVB deposits and the slowdown in US inflation.
Oil rebounds, gas collapses
• Bounce the Petroleum: Brent at 78,20 dollars, Wti at 72. Year to date -10%. In its monthly bulletin, OPEC+ updated its forecasts for world crude oil demand for 2023. There are no significant changes, overall, compared to last month, but the assumptions on China and OECD countries are different : the demand of the former was slightly revised upwards, the latter downwards.
• The European gas it fell down by -10% to 44,20 euro/mwh. Summer, a season with a physiological drop in demand, is approaching and stocks are still very high.
Erg raises the dividend. Tim: first response to Cdp
Erg released this morning fourth quarter results conditioned at an operational level by low wind conditions, Ebitda drops to 126 million euros, below consensus expectations. The debt was better than expected, amounting to 1.434 billion lire at the end of the year. The board proposes a dividend of one euro to the shareholders' meeting, ten cents above the analysts' estimate. For 2023, the company presented an indication of Ebitda that takes into account the extra taxes imposed by Italy. Net of these, the gross margin is estimated at between 500 and 550 million, with investments between 400 and 500 million.
Tim. The Board should today give an initial response to the proposal on the Cdp-Macquarie network. The council will ask for an improvement in the offer because it considers it too low.
Juventus. UEFA has announced that it has requested additional information from the Italian judicial authorities following the recent investigative developments in the investigation into the club's accounts. UEFA adds that it has no further comments to make on the matter at the moment.
Last updated at 09:50 on Wednesday 15 March 2023
