The boulder of ceiling on the US public debt it was removed in time. Yesterday the House, controlled by the Republicans, approved the compromise with President Biden paving the way for the law. The positive news, paradoxically, failed to offset the effect of another news that was "too" positive for the US economy but negative for Wall Street: job vacancies unexpectedly rose, to 10,1 million from 9,74 million, revised figure from the previous 9,6 million. Each unemployed person has 1,5 jobs available, much less than the levels at the beginning of 2022, but still much more than the pre-pandemic ratio, around 1,2. With such a healthy job market on the demand side, the Federal Reserve has no reason to return to an expansionary policy.
However, the solution to the American puzzle has calmed the atmosphere of the markets, starting from Europe. European stock exchanges open in positive territory, with increases of around 0,8% and 0,9%. Piazza Affari is one of the best squares of the Old Continent.
Today the data on inflation, Italy improves
Inflation data in the Eurozone come out today at 11 am after encouraging anticipations from France, Germany and Spain. estimates point to +6,3% after +7% in April, the one excluding food and energy - which the ECB watches with particular attention - is seen at +5,5% from +5,6% in the previous month .
Inflation is down, but less than expected, in Italy too: +8,1% year on year, from +8,7% in April. The consensus was +7,5%.
IERI (Yesterday), Milano -1,97% was the worst price list, crushed by banks and industrialists. But the real economy confirms that in the first quarter growth +0,6% was higher than in France e Germany. The forecasts, however, are not as good.
All in red i European lists in the month of May. The Stoxx 600 index lost -3,3% precisely because only Techs contributed to the increase, while the other 19 sectoral sub-indexes lost ground. Bringing up the rear are Real Estate (-9,50%) and Energy [-7,5%]. Our FTSE MIB lost 2,5% net of dividends. The Paris Cac 40 was the worst with a -5% caused by the correction of the Luxury stocks.
The ECB will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting today. President Christine Lagarde will speak during the day.
German Bund at 2,28% from 2,34% yesterday, Btp at 4,07% from 4,14%.
The Fed could leave rates unchanged
Flat this morning, the futures of the US markets fell yesterday: Dow Jones- 0,41%, S & P 500 – 0,61%. It also slows down the Nasdaq -0-63% against the first profit taking on Nvidia -5,7% at the end of the long gallop: From October the increase is 250%.
The tech index closed the month up 5,9%, the benchmark index up 0,3%. The Dow Jones, down 0,4% yesterday, ends May with a drop of 3,3%.
La Fed could keep rates unchanged at the next meeting before proceeding to further increases. That's when two Federal Reserve board members, Philadelphia President Patrick Harker and Governor Philip Jefferson backed up. The latter was nominated by President Jerome Powell for the position of vice president.
May rewards Brazil and Korea, the dollar runs
At the macro-variable level, May was a positive month for the US dollar (+3%), for the 1-year BTP (+0,4%) and for the 6-year Bund (+8,6%). Month in deep red for the Commodity index (-1,4%), oil (-0,6%), gold (-7,6%), XNUMX-year Treasuries (-XNUMX%), Bitcoin -XNUMX% .
Among the main stock lists in May, the gains of emerging markets stand out: Brazil + 5,6% South Korea +7,4%, India +5%. Unfortunately, however, the descent of the chinese bag (-5%), which has the greatest specific weight in the area, contributed to reducing the balance of the MSCI Emerging Markets index to +1,70%.
Mumbai beats Shanghai, Japan's PMI rises
India claims the leading list position as an alternative to China. In the first quarter, India's GDP grew by 6,1%, accelerating from +4,5% in the fourth quarter of 2022: economists had expected +5%.
Nikkei of Tokyo +0,7%. CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists +0,7%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng gains 0,8% in the aftermath of the decline in the Bear area.
The manufacturing PMI index compiled by Jibun Bank on the basis of indications provided by the purchasing managers of a sample of Japanese companies, rose to 50,6, the highest in the last seven months, from 49,5 in April. The indicator thus returns above the threshold that separates economic contraction from expansion.
The Caixin manufacturing PMI index, relating to the expectations of China's medium-large manufacturing companies, rose to 50,9 from 49,5 in April: the consensus was 49,5.
Jefferies promotes Mediobanca, Stellantis improves the outlook
Mediobanca (+ 1,99%): Jefferies raises judgment on Buy.
CNH (+1,21%). Industrial Goldman Sachs cuts the target price.
stellantis (+1,26%). Moody's improved its outlook from stable to positive and confirmed its long-term Baa2 rating.
Tim (+0,89%). The Cdp Board of Directors on the agenda today should not examine the offer dossier for Tim's network. A source says it adding that CDP continues to work with Macquarie in view of the deadline for the presentation of the improved offers set for 9 June.
Leonardo (+1,40%). The government lifted the arms embargo on Saudi Arabia, saying it was no longer necessary in light of the easing of the conflict in Yemen and Saudi support for UN mediation efforts.
Maire Tecnimont (+1,13%) signed a memorandum of understanding with the Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy to strengthen collaboration in the sectors of renewable energies, energy transition and energy efficiency.
FinecoBank (+0,06%) will enter the FTSE EuroMid index, the basket of European mid caps, from 19 June on the occasion of the quarterly review of the indices, announced FTSE Russell.
