Once again, after Brexit and the election of Trump, the financial markets have denied the most negative forecasts. Business Square, after the initial drop (-2%) reversed course during the morning. The Ftse Mib index, after various ups and downs, is just below parity (-0,2%), in any case above the barrier of 17 thousand points. The other European markets did better, driven by the strength of the dollar and by the expectation of the extension of Quantitative Easing by the ECB: Paris + 1,16% Frankfurt + 1,42%. Madrid +1,04%. The increase of more modest London (+ 0,34%).
Even on the foreign exchange market, after an initial drop to 1,056 the cross Euro/Dollar returns to 1,064.
Il BTP ten-year bond saw the yield rise to 2,00% from 1,89% on Friday, the spread widening by 10 basis points to 170 before then reversing course. The operations rooms signal the presence of the ECB.
"Speculation does not feel like going against the central bank - explains Vincenzo Logo of Ig Markets - However, it is important that there is a rapid political response, otherwise the crisis could worsen towards the end of the week".
Il Petroleum rising again after last week's run: Brent at 55,1 dollars a barrel (+1,3%). Energy stocks restart: Eni +0,1%: Morgan Stanley has raised its rating to Equal Weight from Underweight, bringing the target price to 13,4 euros from 12,3 euros. Tenaris + 1% Saipem + 3,2%.
THEgold loses 1% to 1.164 dollars an ounce.
“This morning we were considering whether to buy something more, for example the banks, but we would have done so if they had suffered more; but the market has improved, which is not surprising given the underperformance already accumulated in recent months. Pictet's Andrea Delitala's comment sums up the managers' opinion well. The markets remain on the alert, ready to take advantage of the negative peaks but the levels reached by quotations (the prices correspond to a book value of 0,40olte, underlines in Crèdit Suisse) reduces the space for a new collapse.
Just before noon Mount Paschi it lost 0,87%, paradoxically better than the other securities in the sector, pending today's meetings between the management and the banks in the consortium. The Board of Directors will also meet to evaluate the referendum result. It remains to be seen whether the international investors who had expressed their maximum willingness to participate in the capital increase will confirm their interest in investing. For Morgan Stanley "public intervention is increasingly probable". The Mps Tier2 September 2020 bond, coupon 5,6% (for institutional), one of those involved in the voluntary buyback offer promoted by the bank, yields more than two points, reaching a price of 59,80. The related yield in turn rises to a new record of 22,52%.
It gets much worse Unicredit (-4,03%), awaiting the launch of the capital increase in a week. The institute has accelerated the sale of Pioneer by choosing the offer of the French group Amundi with which it has decided to start exclusive negotiations.
Weak other banks: Understanding -1,2% Popular Bank -2,2% Mediobanca -1,4%. Bucking Mediolanum Bank (+2,2%): the CEO Massimo Doris said that he aims to distribute an extra dividend of 8-9 cents to be recognized during 2017 after the capital gain of 40 million deriving from the sale of Banca Esperia.
No repercussions from voting on Generali (+ 0,1%) and Unipol (-0,1%).
The best title is Fiat Chrysler: +4,4% to 7,5 euros, the highest since January. There are two reasons for the upward trend: the market's favor for securities with a strong exposure to international markets and in particular to the dollar area and the appointment of the CEO of GM Mary Barra, however not well disposed towards Sergio Marchionne, as adviser to the new US president, Donald Trump. The market is betting that Barra will support maneuvers in favor of the entire auto sector which has been in a cyclical phase of decline for two months after years of boom.
The strong dollar pushes Luxottica (+ 2,6%) and Moncler (+ 3,5%).
Leonardo-Finmeccanica earns 2,43%. This morning, Deutsche Bank analysts promoted the stock to Buy from Hold with a target price raised to 14 euros from the previous 11,70 euros. The new target price promises a 13% rise on Friday's closing. The strong exposure to the Defense sector and the US market pushed the stock to gain more than 20% between October and November.
Atlantia turns up by about one point to 21,23 euros, it started off by 2% with a low at 20,31 euros. This morning Natixis analysts promoted the stock to Buy from Neutral leaving the target price unchanged at 25 euros per share.
Mediaset gains 2%, reaching 2,426 euros. Jefferies reiterated the Hold (neutral) recommendation, reducing the target price to 2,46 euros from 2,50 euros, despite the stock having accumulated a 40% loss since the beginning of the year.
