Rumors, speculation, uncertainty. And Telecom shares which sink by almost five and a half points (with a minimum seat price of 66,3 cents), clearly behind the Ftse Mib. Among the operators of Piazza Affari there is a bit of embarrassment: the most important Italian telephone company is collapsing on the Stock Exchange, but no one is able to explain the reason with certainty. Assuming there is only one. Certainly, nothing official: no news, no data justifies such a crash.
Among the hypotheses circulating on the market, the most likely is that investors are betting on the sale of Telecom shares by the shareholders united in Telco (Generali, Intesa, Mediobanca, Telefonica), the holding that controls the company with a 22,39% stake. Mediobanca and Generali hold more than 42% of Telco and together with Intesa reach a share in the holding company higher than that of the Spanish Telefonica.
The most widespread doubt on the markets is this: what will be the policy of Generali and Mediobanca (in turn the reference shareholder of the insurance company) on the most important subsidiaries after the replacement of the CEO Giovanni Perissinotto with Mario Greco?
In the coming months, Generali will have to forfeit resources that will be needed in 2014, when Petr Kelner will exercise the put option on 49% of the joint venture in Eastern Europe. The sale of shares in subsidiaries could therefore be an inevitable choice.
Meanwhile, from the extract of the shareholders' agreement it emerged yesterday that Telco pledged Telecom shares to the lending banks for a value of 1,73 billion, equal to 12,9% of the share capital, i.e. more than half of the shares held by the reference shareholder (which together amount to three billion).
These shares are the subject of a new option agreement with the lenders, which will expire on November 27, 2013. The agreement defines the procedures for exercising the option right with which Telco shareholders could buy back the Telecom shares if these were to end up in the hands of to banks.
But that's not enough. There are also those on the markets who speculate that several companies will be forced to cut dividends due to the severe difficulties encountered by the European telecommunications sector. Just today the number one of France Telecom, Stéphane Richard, announced that next year the coupons will be revised downwards.
Finally, some believe that Telecom Italia is feeling the effects of the backlash due to theexit from the Euro Stoxx 50 index. A farewell announced on Friday, but which will only become reality on July 18th.
