MILAN STOCK EXCHANGE BLACK JERSEY OF LISTINI (-1,15)
MOODY'S EFFECT ON THE EU, DEFAULT SHADOW IN THE USA.
Milan remains weak but rises from the lows reached at the start with Piazza Affari falling by 1,15% (Ftse/Mib at 19.236). London fell by 0,3%, Paris fell by -0,35% and Frankfurt fell by 0,07%. In the US, Democrats and Republicans have not yet found a compromise agreement on the deficit ceiling and the August 2 deadline is dangerously approaching. Futures on the American stock market anticipate a start down by about one percentage point for this afternoon. This morning, Moody's cut Greece's credit rating to Ca from Caa1 (three notches), just one notch above the default threshold. Last Friday it was Fitch who rejected Greece's bailout plan. According to Moody's analysts, the plan developed by Europe and the IMF inevitably foresees losses for private investors and this effectively implies a default.
THE BTP/BUND CROSS IS WIDENING. NEW GOLD RECORD
THE RATING AGENCY: AT TRIPLE RISK TO FRANCE AND GERMANY
Uncertainty is pushing precious metals higher again. Gold touches the new all-time high at 1.616 dollars at the opening. You also bought silver, up 1,2% to $40,60. The euro pulls back slightly and is now trading at 1,4358. The German bund rebounds, reaching 127,6 points. The spread with the 276-year BTP rises to 1 basis points. No time to digest the new plan that Moody's ax arrived this morning. In fact, the rating agency downgraded Athens' rating rating by a good three steps, bringing it to Ca from the previous CaaXNUMX, one step away from the threshold set for default. The decision reflects the country's possible default despite the new aid package that arrived just last week. In a statement, Moody's specified that private holders of Greek debt are now "virtually certain that they will incur losses". Not only. Moody's itself has warned that the triple A rating of France and Germany is at risk precisely because of the commitment undertaken by the two countries in favor of Greece. A decision that could have negative implications if extended to other debtors such as Ireland.
NEW RAIN OF SALES ON BANKS
JP MORGAN REVIEWS TARGETS DOWNWARDS
For now, the market is not listening to Nomura's call, who advised selling cyclical stocks that have performed well to return to bank stocks. According to Nomura, financials trade at a 56% discount to equity compared to cyclicals. JP Morgan points out that the auto sector has outperformed the market by 12% since the beginning of the year. But the US bank lowers the target of the main listed banks.
In Piazza Affari, banks are thus declining: Unicredit, the best, loses 2,73%, sales also on Intesa Sanpaolo which falls by 4,97%, Mps loses 4,91%, Ubi 4,89 %. Heavy losses for Bpm which falls by 4,93%. Banco Popolare also did badly -4,91%. Among insurance sales on Generali -2,7% and Fondiaria -4,2%.
FIAT INDUSTRIAL, IN VIEW OF THE RISE IN GUIDANCE
MARCHIONNE THE DELEGATION FOR NORTH AMERICA IS HELD
Fiat Industrial gains 1,6%. Today the group will communicate the quarterly report, analysts estimate a trading profit of 449 million from 346 million in the same period of the previous year. “We expect positive indications from the results, but we do not foresee a revision of the guidance for the year which envisages trading profits between 1,2 and 1,4 billion and a net profit of 600 million euros”, underlined Intermonte in today's note.
Fiat (+0,8%), will announce the results tomorrow, according to the consensus of analysts the trading profit will settle at 485 million euros. Jp Morgan raised the target price on the stock to 8,1 euros. As part of the new managerial organization of Fiat and Chrysler, the CEO of the two groups, Sergio Marchionne, will maintain responsibility for North America for the time being as the rebirth of the American company is still a 'work in progress'. Sources familiar with the dossier revealed this to Automotive News. The new organization of the Italian-American alliance, characterized by greater powers, will be revealed tomorrow in conjunction with the publication of the Lingotto half-yearly accounts and will also see the creation of a new steering committee made up of 25 top managers from both Chrysler and Fiat who will be responsible for the global activities of the new automotive group in their respective functional areas. The new structure will also give more authority to regional executives in North America, Latin America and Europe and possibly Asia-Pacific.
Meanwhile, Jp Morgan has raised the target price on the stock to 8,1 euros from 7,5, confirming the "underweight" judgment.
News also on the industrial side, according to a German magazine, Suzuki Motor could deepen cooperation with the Turin group. On strategies in Russia, the Russian newspaper Kommersant, quoted on Saturday by Milano Finanza, speaks of a difference of views with its partner Sberbank. Lingotto would like to build factories in the St. Petersburg area, while Sberbank would be insisting that the group invest in Derways, in the Caucasus.
EDISON, SAGLIA CRITICIZES THE POSTPONEMENT
NEW CONTRACTS (800 MILLION) FOR SAIPEM
Saipem (+1,35%) has been awarded new Onshore E&C contracts worth approximately USD 800 million in South America and West Africa. In Suriname, the state oil company Staatsolie has awarded Saipem the contract for the expansion of the Tout Lui Faut refinery. In Nigeria, the Eni subsidiary was awarded the contract with Shell Petroleum Development for the construction of the Otamara-Saghara-Escravos gas pipeline.
Good news for Autogrill (-0,50%, to 8,97 euros) since the publication of ATA data on US air traffic which grew by 1,5% in June, after having recorded +3,8% in May. “In that area – notes Equita Sim – Autogrill may benefit from increases in retail prices for which we expect good performance. Traffic was much stronger in Spain and the United Kingdom (together they make up about 23% of group Ebitda) with double-digit growth in the second quarter”, continue the analysts, confirming the purchase recommendation (buy) on the security with a target price of 12 euros. “
The hypothesis of an extension beyond September 15th of the negotiations between the French EDF and the consortium of Italian shareholders led by A2a to redefine the Edison group's structure is "not a positive fact". This was stated by Stefano Saglia, Undersecretary for Economic Development, referring to the hypothesis circulated in recent days. "It would be better if they closed", said Saglia on the sidelines of the inauguration of the Terna power line at Chignolo Po, underlining however that "it is important that the two companies find an understanding because they are losing value not due to industrial issues but due to a uncertain". The undersecretary thus wanted to remark, referring to the times of the negotiations between the French of EDF and the Italian shareholders of Delmi, that it would be desirable to close within the set deadline: "Also because - Saglia affirmed using football terms - when it comes to the ninetieth minute , the end must be whistled, while it seems to me that we are now in extra time ”.
Piaggio +1,08% to 2,002, moves against the trend on the hypothesis that the group is studying to list the Asian assets showing the greatest growth separately in Hong Kong. In reality, the hypothesis suggested to Imssi by some investment banks is considered by Intermonte "improbable given the still limited size of the group", conclude the experts, confirming the underperform rating and target price at 2,77 euros. The share on the Ftse Mib gains 1,30% to 2,808. Lottomatica shows off with a gain of 1,4% reaching 12,74 euros. This morning Citigroup raised its rating on the stock to hold, to keep in portfolio, to sell, to sell.
