Il Banking risk dominates Piazza Affari in the last session of the week. European stock markets opened with little movement, but in Milan the FTSE MIB turned the spotlight on the new offensive of Ps, which after the green light from the board of directors has formalised two public exchange offers su Banco Bpm and Banca Generali for a total value of nearly 34 billion euros. Luigi Lovaglio's move represents the response to theOpas launched by Intesa Sanpaolo and reopens the debate over the balance of the Italian banking system. The Banco BPM deal is worth approximately €25,3 billion, while the Banca Generali deal is worth approximately €8,7 billion. Both are entirely in shares.
Friday's start remains cautious overall. Ftse Mib starts around +0,2%, while Frankfurt and London gained just 0,06% and Paris lost 0,09%. In Milan, however, the market is primarily looking at the reaction of the stocks involved in the game of risk.
MPS raises its stake, but the market's initial response is cold.
For Bpm bankMPS is offering 1,567 new treasury shares for each share tendered, without incorporating a premium over market value. The offer is more generous for General Bank, with 6,958 MPS shares for each security and a 10% premium compared to the prices of August 19. Monte dei Paschi aims to create a group with over 810 billion euros of total financial assets and estimates annual pre-tax synergies of approximately €2,6 billion. Banca Generali has meanwhile convened a board of directors meeting to evaluate the proposal, while attention is now also turning to Intesa Sanpaolo's possible countermeasures.
However, the comparison between yesterday and today shows a reaction that is anything but linear. Typically, in acquisition operations whoever buys is penalized and whoever is bought benefits from the offer premium. Thursday it went just like this: MPS had lost 0,34%, while Banco Bpm had gained 0,66% e Banca Generali 1,26%. In the same session Intesa Sanpaolo closed at +0,41%, Bper at +0,27%, Generali practically unchanged at -0,07%, while Unipol had left 2,96% on the ground.
This morning the picture changes. MPS gains about 0,4%, while the two offer targets drop: Banco Bpm loses approximately 0,18% and Banca Generali 3%.Banca Generali itself is showing the greatest volatility: after opening at 69,40 euros, above yesterday's close, it quickly reversed course, falling below 67 euros.
Better Intesa Sanpaolo, up about 0,3%, and Generali, which is gaining around 0,4%. Bper remains slightly positive, while Unipol loses about 1%, continuing the weakness already shown on Thursday.
Europe flat, Asia contrasted
Outside of the banking game, the markets remain much more subdued. Wall Street closed the previous session sharply lower, with the Dow Jones down 1,32%, the S&P 500 down 0,87%, and the Nasdaq down 1%, penalized by the renewed rise in Treasury yields, weakness in technology stocks, and tensions between the United States and Iran.
In Asia, however, a mixed picture prevails. Tokyo closed down 0,3%, while Seoul's Kospi rose by around 0,9% and Hong Kong gained 0,7%. Shanghai remained essentially unchanged.
New price signals are also coming from Japan. Inflation has accelerated.1,9% annual rate in July, from 1,6% in June, while the August manufacturing PMI improved to 55,1 points, remaining clearly above the threshold that separates expansion from contraction in activity.
In Europe, the macroeconomic agenda focuses on the preliminary PMIs for August. The United Kingdom already reported retail sales down 0,5% month-on-month in July, but up 1,6% compared to a year earlier.
Oil remains above $93, dollar under pressure
Tensions between Washington and Tehran continue to represent the main external risk factor. The American vice president JD Vance He called economic pressure the most effective tool against Iran, though he called it a “delicate dance,” while the Trump administration announced a new tightening of sanctions.
After five consecutive sessions of growth, oil is taking a breather, but remains at high levels. Brent crude falls 0,5% to around $93,3 a barrel, while WTI fell 0,7% to around $86,2. Gas in Amsterdam fell 0,8% to 64,8 euros per megawatt-hour.
On the currency the dollar remains weakThe euro rose to the 1,169 area against the greenback, while the dollar-yen exchange rate remained just below the 159 level. Gold was at 4.552,41 dollars an ounce, up 0,79%.
Tensions remain high in the US bond market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has returned to around 4,71%, while that on the 30-year note is above 5,2%, despite the US Treasury announcing an expansion of its long-term bond buyback program.
In Italy it The spread between BTPs and Bunds remains around 82 basis points., with the yield on the Italian 10-year bond in the 4,08% area.
