Silence, the president speaks. The financial markets are already focused on the speech that Donald Trump will give tomorrow in front of deputies and senators meeting in joint session. It's now been three weeks since Trump announced the imminent presentation of his "phenomenal" tax reform plan and the stock market is clamoring to learn about the plan's guidelines.
In the meantime, the markets have decided to adopt a cautious stance. In Asia, equity indices are down: in Tokyo, the Nikkei index falls by 1%. Hong Kong and Shanghai lose 0,3%. Seoul -0,4%. On Parity Mumbai.
The price of gold is close to the highs. The precious metal rose 0,5% to $1.256,97 an ounce, its highest since November. It gained 1,8% last week.
Oil prices are up: Brent just above 56 dollars, Wti at 54,04. Traders, according to Reuters, predict a forthcoming jump in prices. OPEC production cuts are beginning to bear fruit.
BUFFETT BLESSES WALL STREET RACING
Even Wall Street, after eleven rises in a row in the Dow Jones index, could mark time waiting for Trump's words. But, to comfort the optimism, Warren Buffett thought about it. The letter to Berkshire Hathaway's shareholders, published on Saturday, sends signs of great optimism on the prospects of the American economy. "Investors - writes the Omaha essay - will certainly do well by focusing in the long term on a selection of large and solid companies that are an expression of American business", perhaps to choose from among the 90 segments of his financial company: to be part of the "club" of Buffett it is enough to invest 250 thousand dollars, a share of Berkshire is worth it.
EUROPE UNDER ELECTORAL STRESS: YIELDS ON THE RISE
The European stock exchanges are about to experience a new wave of tensions in view of a scorching election season. In 15 days there will be a vote in the Netherlands, where the success of the Islamophobe Geert Wilders is not excluded, the first difficult stage of the electoral tour de force which will culminate in the confrontation in France between Marine Le Pen and her possible challengers, among whom Emmanuel Macron is the favourite. It will be a veritable tug of war between Eurosceptics and pro-Europeans, on which the fate of the euro and of the EU itself will depend. It is obvious that risk aversion is destined to grow on the markets with significant repercussions on Italian and French securities and the race towards bunds.
MTS PUTTS LSE-DEUTSCHE BOERSE MERGER AT RISK
Thus, today's full-bodied offering of 5- and 10-year BTPs assumes particular importance. Securities for a total of 10 billion will be auctioned. In reality, the positive outcome of the offer is almost certain, given that the Treasury will repay 11,4 billion of old issues in these days. But it will be interesting to see the extent of interest growth. On Friday evening, on the gray market of Mts, the new five-year was traded at 1,16% (high since June) against 0,92% a month ago. The 2,35-year was trading at XNUMX%.
Just Mts, the Italian fixed income platform controlled by Lde, threatens to blow up the wedding between the London Stock Exchange and Deutsche Boerse. London rejected on Sunday evening the EU request to immediately cede control of the platform to avoid the risk of monopoly.
THE AGENDA: BEIGE BOOK, ITALIAN AND US GDP
Two weeks after the Fed meeting, the interventions of the central bank governors are multiplying. Only 22% of observers expect that the institution's monetary committee will give the green light to the rate hike already on this occasion, unless other signs of euphoria come from the economy, such as to force the Fed to move before more precise indications from the White House. The signals from the Beige Book, the most precise map of US economic trends, which will be published on Wednesday, will be important. Two days later, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak.
Among the numerous data arriving this week, the revision of GDP growth in the last quarter of 2016 stands out: an upward adjustment to 2.1%, against the initial estimate of 1,9%, stands out. Eurostat is due to release the latest data on inflation in the Eurozone on Wednesday. Prices are expected to signal a fresh move towards the 2% barrier, thus increasing pressure on the ECB to review its QE purchases prematurely.
On Wednesday, the EU trade ministers will meet in Malta to define a common strategy towards the USA, after the closures of the Trump administration, and towards Asia: China and Japan can become strategic partners to support the defense of globalisation. A week of numbers also for the Italian economy. Wednesday the day circled in red on the calendar. In fact, the Statistical Institute will release the official data on the annual trend of GDP and debt for 2016. The latest survey brought the growth of the Belpaese towards +0,9% for the past year,
THE ACCOUNTS OF ENI ARRIVE. TODAY BOD OF SARAS
Political tensions have left their mark on Piazza Affari which dismissed the sixth week of decline for the Milan Stock Exchange in the last seven weeks (-2,1% in the last five sessions). Spotlights still focused on the balance sheet data.
At the center of attention is Eni which will release the 2016 accounts on Wednesday 1st March. On the same day, appointment with the Luxottica board of directors. Tomorrow it will be Bper's turn instead. Thursday 2 March will be the turn of the accounts of Monte Paschi di Siena, awaiting decisions from Brussels and the ECB on the recapitalization of the institute, suspended from the Stock Exchange for more than two months.
TODAY AUCTION OF UNICREDIT RIGHTS. OFFER OF BANCO BPM SECURITIES
Today the unopted rights (only 30 million euros) of Unicredit are being re-offered. After the success of the 13 billion increase, on the basis of the new capital balances, the composition of the board of directors is about to begin in view of the budget meeting on 20 April.
The offer on the Stock Exchange of Banco Bpm's unopted shares (-15% last week) subject to withdrawal also begins today. The operation will end on March 3 unless it is closed early. Also scheduled are the quarterly reports of Saras (followed by the conference call), Sogefi and Editoriale L'Espresso.
INTESA SAYS GOODBYE TO GENERALI, MESSINA MISSION IN THE USA
Spotlight on the lack of agreement between Intesa and Generali. On Friday, the bank announced that, after examining a possible combination with the Trieste-based company, it has not identified any opportunities in the deal. The institute specified that "it will increase the creation and distribution of value for its shareholders endogenously, while preserving its leadership in terms of capital adequacy".
The Bank could present a new industrial plan in the autumn, at the latest in the first months of 2018. Intesa Sanpaolo should focus on growth without acquisitions. CEO Carlo Messina will travel to the US this week to meet various international investors. In the last month, dominated by rumors about a possible deal, Intesa has lost 16% on the Stock Exchange.
Mediaset is also under scrutiny, after the decision of the Milan Public Prosecutor's Office to open an investigation which sees Vivendi's top management registered in the context of an investigation into insider trading launched after a complaint by the Berlusconi group.
