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Stock market held back by fears for growth and the G20, but Leonardo runs

European stocks waiting while gold and oil rise – Dividend detachment affects Poste, Snam and Terna – Tim also down – Banks down – Olympics boost real estate

Stock market held back by fears for growth and the G20, but Leonardo runs

The European stock exchanges are losing ground at the start of the week under the pressure of the negative data arriving from Germany. The Ifo, the indicator of business confidence, fell for the third consecutive month in Germany in June as the economy is heading towards a recession. Even more alarming are the accounts of  Daimler -4,2% on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, the group trimmed its earnings outlook for 2019. This year's group margin, before interest and taxes, should be at last year's level, the company said. company versus a previous estimate of “a slight increase”. The German index loses about half a percentage point, just over Business Square -0,44% and Madrid -0,4% Paris loses 0,16%. In positive ground outside the euro area London and Zurich.

On the debt market in the morning, the Italian paper recovered ground due to the rumors of Financial Times on the summit's decision to postpone sanctions against Italy. The Italian 2,088-year bond reached 7 this morning (-0,305 basis points) against the Bund's 2% (-2,13 bp). The yield is now at XNUMX%, spread 243.

Mario Draghi last week presented the EU Council with a picture of still robust economic growth in the euro area, accompanied however by signs of growing risks and uncertainty compared to a year ago. "In the absence of an improvement sufficient to allow inflation to recover towards the ECB target, new stimulus measures will be needed," Draghi said.

On the macro variable front, the Petroleum opens the week up by half a point, Brent +0,5% to 65,50 dollars, in the wake of growing tensions between the US and Iran. Brent gained 5% last week. The best week of the last three and a half years ended for WTI oil: +9,3%.

Saipem falls by 0,52%, Eni -0,12%. Tenaris -0,74%.

THEgold it remains above 1.400 dollars an ounce, +0,3%, after completing the fifth positive week in a row. 

Euro dollar slightly moved at 1,138. The US currency has lost 1,5% against the euro over the past five days, 1,2%-

Lo dividend detachment affects the performance of several blue chips: Prysmian -3,7% Italian post -2,9% (but +1.6% net of the coupon), Snam -3,4% Terna -2,96%.

Tim -1,34%. Today, Tim savings shares detach the dividend of 0,0275 euro. In today's strategic committee Luigi Gubitosi should take stock of the negotiations between TIM and Open Fiber, but also on the agreement between Inwit and Vodafone and on the partnership for the management of consumer credit, announced in the presentation of the first quarter results. A reshuffle of the Board of Directors could be announced on Thursday, with a possible change in the presidency and the resignation of some directors (including Amos Genish), following an agreement between Vivendi and Elliott on governance.

In great evidence Leonardo +1,9%, evaluates an offer with some French partners for MDA Corporation, a Canadian company active in the space and defense sector controlled by the American company Maxar.

Fiat Chrysler -0,4%. According to Wall Street JournalFCA, Renault and Nissan executives remain open to the idea that a deal could still take place. In particular, Nissan's shareholders' meeting could lead to a majority of independent members on the Nissan board who would be more inclined to support value-creating deals.

Campari +1,7%. Almost all down banks. Unicredit -1,1% Understanding -0,2%. 

Atlantia +0,9%. In recent months it has received numerous requests for information and expressions of interest on Telepass, but no negotiations are in progress. 

In luxury. Ferragamo -1% Tod’s -0,9%. Credit Suisse cut the Underperform rating from Neutral and the target price to 32 euros from 38 euros.

Juventus +1,5%, the 2019-2020 season ticket campaign has started.

Worth noting:

  • biesse (-20%) launched a profit warning on the 2019 accounts. It sees revenues between 680-690 million and an ebitda between 62-65 million. 
  • Coima Res +1,8%, a real estate investment company mainly active in Milan, could shine on the Stock Exchange. In the late afternoon in Lausanne, headquarters of the International Olympic Committee (IOC), the venue for the 2026 Winter Olympic Games will be announced. The IOC members will decide by choosing among the candidate cities: Milan and Cortina for Italy, Stockholm and Aare for Sweden.
  • Up sharply awaiting the response from the IOC, too Cleansing at its highest since mid-July 2018, as well as other real estate securities, such as AEDES and IGD.

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