THE STOCK EXCHANGE AND BTP ARE LOOKING FOR THE BIS OF THE BULL. THE HEDGES LOAD THE GUN AGAINST THE EURO
Stock exchanges sprint, government bonds in strong recovery. The test has a very relative value, given that yesterday no work was done in London and Wall Street, the two main speculative centers on the planet, as well as in Tokyo and Hong Kong. But the recovery of Italian government bonds, starting with the biennial BTP, certainly bodes well in view of the January 12 auction, the first real test for Italian bonds. But expectations are positive: for the next issue of 12-month Treasuries the forecast is for rates of 3,75-4% against 5,95% recorded in the last auction before the ECB refinancing.
Meanwhile, for once the Monti government can benefit from the numbers: the spread of the ten-year BTP has dropped to 496, the gap with respect to the Spanish Bonos also improves, down to 182bp compared to the maximum of 202. In particular, the drop in 44 bp of the biennial. Who knows if some operator has decided that it is better to run the "risk" of earning something with Italian sovereign debt rather than lose out for sure (except for currency revaluation) in British gilts or Danish bonds, whose yields are well below the 'inflation. In any case, it will be interesting to check the mood of the market today, on the occasion of the first offers of 2012. We start this morning with the Bte, ie the French Bot. Tonight it's up to the T-Bonds soon: the quarterly, on Friday evening, was worth a return of 0,06%.
WEATHERBAG. CLEAR, CLOUDS FROM SPAIN. Who knows if 2012, the leap year, will be able to offer euphoric sessions like the debut one. Thanks also to the positive figure of the German manufacturing industry index, the lists experienced a one-way session, in constant acceleration. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 2,4%. The Paris Stock Exchange rose by 1,6%, Frankfurt was up by 3%.
Madrid took care of curbing the enthusiasm: the 2011 Spanish deficit is 8%, two points more than the figure known so far. Furthermore, the euro did not participate in the party, which celebrated its tenth birthday, falling against the dollar: 1,294, from 1,296 at Friday's closing. But that's just the beginning. The FT reveals that the hedges have loaded their guns to fire on the single currency. In the last week of 2011, 127.900 short contracts against the euro were signed, a clear increase compared to the 113.700 of the previous week.
Meanwhile good humor has infected Asia. Of note is the sharp rise of the mining giant Bhp Billiton which exports 28% of its production to China. Fu & Li, the major supplier of Wal Mart, marks a rise of 5,2% in Hong Kong. The Hang Seng index advanced by 2,01%, the MSCI Asia Pacific by 1,21%. Tokyo is still closed.
PREMAFIN, TOWARDS THE CONVERSION OF CREDITS INTO SHARES
The relaunch of government securities had an immediate echo in the performance of insurance securities. Generali recorded an increase of 3,7%. The Leone stock, recovering from an 18% loss in 2011 (against a 13,8% decline in the sector) can indirectly benefit from the merger between Fondiaria, Premafin and Unipol supported by Mediobanca which could ward off the Axa threat.
About the Ligresti match, yesterday Fondiaria-Sai rose by 6,2% (Unipol +3%). Milano Assicurazioni, the subsidiary of Fon-Sai also involved in the project, rose by 5,3%. Premafin, the Ligresti holding which controls Fondiaria, was suspended for the whole day and in the final auction it marked a price of 0,20 euro, up 42%. The rally depends on the progress of the negotiations to provide the necessary financial oxygen to the holding; both Clessidra and the other potential contenders have requested participation in the capital increase of the banks (starting with Unicredit) by converting the credits.
PURPLE EFFECT PUSHES UP MPS STOCKS. AT BPM THE SECOND SHAREHOLDER HAS A NAME: MINCIONE
Another relevant factor of the session was “the V effect” like Viola Fabrizio, the first big coup of the market bank of 2012, Banca Pop.Emilia, snatched from the CEO, closed with a slight increase of 0,1% after having long been the only blue chip in negative ground. MontePaschi, where Viola will assume (for now) the position of general manager, rose by 3,5%.
Intesa gained 2,7%, Unicredit +1%, Pop.Milano +2,6%. The mysterious shareholder who last December 14 raked in the rights to the bank's capital increase has a name. This is Time & Life, a fund managed by the Italian-American Raffaele Mincione, which now controls 8% of the institute, second only to Andrea Bonomi's InvestIndustrial. Mincione, former head of the European division of Salomon Smith Barney, is known in the news for a brilliant real estate deal in London concluded at bargain prices during the 2008 crisis and for having been the boyfriend of Paul McCartney's future wife.
Rally also for car stocks, in the wake of the good performance of the European sector index (+3,1%). Fiat gained 4,5%, Fiat Industrial +2,6%, Pirelli +2,7%. 2011 ended with a new one heavy drop in sales on the Italian market for Fiat: -15,3%. The decrease over the 12 months was 13,1%. The Lingotto house has placed 550.000 cars in Italy, against 750 in Brazil where it remains the leader after repelling the assault by Volkswagen.
Electric day for utilities. Among the blue chips in Piazza Affari, Terna's rise stands out, rising by 6% after the Energy Authority published the final document on Saturday which contains indications on the forthcoming adjustment of electricity transmission tariffs. The increases are stronger than expected. Enel, also affected by the tariff update, rose by 2,6%. A2A gained 5,2%.
among the industrial titles, Finmeccanica +3,5%, Tenaris +4,4% and Prysmian +3,7% gained. Ferragamo +3,2% and Mediaset +4,8% are up. Among the minor stocks, De'Longhi rose by 6,7% on the first day of listing after the spinoff of the "Professional" business unit, which today debuted on the list under the name DelClima (it closed at €0,975). As a result of the demerger, each shareholder of De' Longhi received one share of De' Longhi.
Sopaf informs that the court of Milan has rejected the appeal of S.p.A. participations (controlled by the "DeA") against the company on an alleged compensation claim claimed by DeA equal to the consideration paid by the latter for the purchase of 14,99% of the share capital of Banca Network Investimenti SpA, increased by the amounts paid by DeA to title to increase capital and reserves, plus interest for 36 million. Dea's request was based on a private agreement dated 1 August 2007. According to a Sopaf note, the court "declared the nullity of the agreement in view of the prohibition of the so-called Leonine pact".
