Japan election countdown to tax cliff in the USA, while an encouraging opening of the Republicans is coming. New signs of recovery from China, mixed however with the risk of new tensions with Tokyo, again led by the nationalists. Is it the eurozone? The financial markets, having filed the emotions on sovereign debt (no new Treasury auctions are planned between now and San Silvestro), face the dreaded consequences of the Tobin tax on the activity, already in sharp decline, of the Stock Exchanges. In short, a decisive week to understand if the Bags will find welcome gifts under the tree.
ASIA
Landscaping (and expected) victory in Japan by Shinzo Abe, the nationalist and conservative leader of the LDP. The reactions to the Tokyo Stock Exchange were not long in coming. The Nikkei index +1,4% rises driven by exports and "doped" by the drop in the yen, to its lowest since April 2011. The most effervescent stock is Tokyo Electric Power, or the giant of nuclear power plants, including Fukushima: in electoral campaign Abe had lined up for the reopening of the plants. The other Asian price lists are down slightly.
Japan has appointed a new prime minister, the seventh in the last six years. South Korea will vote on Wednesday. This will complete the changing of the guard of the main economies of the East, started under the new leadership of Beijing. But it is difficult to overcome the lively contrasts between the big names. Shinzo Abe, Tokyo's new premier, descends from Nobosuku Kishi, a member of General Tojo's cabinet who launched the attack on Pearl Harbor and was tried for war crimes in China. Paek Geun Hie, Seoul's favorite in the vote, is the daughter of dictator Park Chung Hee, repeatedly subjected to attacks by Pyongyang (which managed to assassinate the mother of the next president).
AMERICA
Republican speaker John Boehmer opens up on raising taxes for the wealthiest. In reality, Boehmer's offer only concerns incomes over one million dollars against the 250 of the Obama plan. It is also conditional on robust cuts on the package of social interventions and health care requested by the White House. But it is nonetheless a breach in the intransigence of the Republicans, which bodes well for an agreement within the maximum time frame. Obama, who visited Newtown yesterday, a city hit by yet another massacre of innocents, will return today to deal with taxes.
Meanwhile, the S&P index closed lower on Friday after six consecutive days of gains: Dow Jones -0,27%, S&P -0,41% and Nasdaq -0,70%. The “fiscal cliff” effect contributes to making the economic situation of what, for the first nine months of 2012, was the queen of Wall Street problematic: Apple. -4,3% in Friday's session.
Meanwhile, Citigroup has lowered its sales estimates for the iPhone 5. In China, in particular, the launch was a flop. The shares of the suppliers of the Cupertino house fell immediately in Asia. Bloomberg highlights that the cost of instruments to cover losses caused by the fall in the stock price has risen to a 4-year high. The stock is down 24% from its 2012 high two months ago. UBS has lowered the company's target from $780 to $700.
EUROPA
Euro sharply up this morning against the yen to 110. The dollar is traded at 61. European stock markets barely moved in the last session of the week: London -1,3159%, Paris unchanged, Frankfurt +0,1%.
In the meantime, in this context, the discontent of operators regarding the imminent introduction of the Tobin tax in the most important countries of the euro area, including Italy, is taking shape.
“Many derivative instruments will leave France, Spain and Italy – comments Xavier Rolet, the CEO of the London Stock Exchange which controls Piazza Affari – perhaps to Germany which was the first to talk about the tax but is now backing away, leaving it to the others”.
“Our goal – insists the AIAF president Paolo Balice – is to rebuild a supply chain of the financial industry in Italy. The arrival of the Tobin tax makes the objective more difficult”.
ITALY
The week of the great scare passed without damage. The balance of the last five meetings of Piazza Affari is an increase of 1,3%, which brings the performance since the beginning of 5,4 to +2012%.
On the government bond market, the BTP improved slightly, traded at a yield of 4,59%, the spread settled at 324, down by 3 basis points.
On the eve of decisions for Generali's share in the Bank of Italy: the directorate of the Bank of Italy will decide tomorrow the destination of the 4,5% currently held by the pension fund of the via Nazionale institution. "The guidelines that we have given ourselves - said the governor Ignazio Visco in an interview with La Stampa - are not to alter the market dynamics and to guarantee that the methods of managing the investment do not deviate from those followed by the Bank of Italy in these years". The perfect identikit leads to Fondo Strategico Italiano as buyer.
In Milan Fiat it fell by 1,9% on rumors according to which management is sounding out banks on a possible capital increase of between 1 and 2 billion euros. The new financial resources would be used to purchase the 41% of Chrysler that Fiat does not yet own. The company has flatly denied this. Sergio Marchionne, on the contrary, referred to "monetisable assets" to finance the Detroit operation.
Meanwhile, today the extraordinary shareholders' meeting of CNH is held in Amsterdam which will have to express itself on the extra dividend of 10 dollars assigned to minority shareholders after the resistance of the special committee to the initial proposal for a merger between CNH and Fiat Industrial. With Fiat, the parent company declined slightly Exor -00,2%.
The other industrial stocks were positive: Pirelli rose by 1,2%, StM + 0,8% Prysmian + 0,3% Finmeccanica +0,2%. The board ofParmalat approved the agreement with the Ontario teachers' fund: the group will pay 133 million to the Canadian fund following a ruling by the Ontario Federal Court.
The banking sector is also making slight progress. Unicredit rose by 0,1%, Understanding + 0,1% Mediobanca+ 0,9% Ubi+ 0,6% Pop.Milano +1,9%. Rising oil (Wti at 86,4 dollars a barrel +0,6%) helped the recovery ofSaipem+ 1,2%. Eni it rose by 0,4%. Closure unchanged for Enel -0,1%, while Telecom Italy is down 1%.
