Exuberant markets today, between macro data and end-of-race hopes for central banks: Business Square it closed with a 1,4% increase, regaining 25 points and going from 23.774 basis points on 30 December to 25.168 today. The first week of 2023 is thus the best for about two months for the main Milanese price list and for other European markets. Paris, at the end of today's session, it appreciated by 1,47%, Frankfurt + 1,2% Amsterdam + 1,39% Madrid + 1,03% London + 0,88%.
Wall Street runs with wages that have grown less than estimates
In the afternoon, it was Wall Street that gave the right momentum to the continental markets today, which moved upwards right from the start after the US job data non-agricultural in December. The jobs created are more than expected (223 thousand, against estimates of 200 thousand) and unemployment is at its lowest for 55 years (3,5%), but the pace is slowing down compared to the previous months and above all wages grow less than expected (+0,27%, against expectations of +0,4%). Moral: the world's largest economy remains strong, but inflation growth may have peaked. All of this, translated into a Fed key, can lead to cautious optimism about the central bank's next tightening.
Reuters he writes that bets on a 25 basis point hike at the February policy meeting have risen to 73% and the terminal rate is seen falling below 5% by June.
Furthermore theservice activities in the United States in December it contracted for the first time in more than 2 and a half years due to weakening demand, with further signs of lower inflation.
The climate favors purchases on T Bonds, which show rising prices and falling rates, with the 3,58-year bond being indicated at +3,81% (-XNUMX%).
In chiaroscuro inflation in the euro area
In the meantime, the eurozone is slowing downinflation in December at 9,2%, from 10,5% in November, thanks to the drop in energy prices, but the "core" component, excluding energy and foodstuffs, reached a new record last month at +5,2%, against forecasts of +5% as in November. This raises concerns regarding the policies of the ECB, although today the member of the Governing Council Mario centeno he said Frankfurt's key interest rates "are approaching a peak."
According to the governor of central bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the ECB should complete its bullish cycle "by the summer", when rates will touch their peak. Frankfurt will then have to keep its belt tightened for as long as "necessary" to bring inflation back towards the 2% target.
Finally, eurozone economic sentiment improved in December for the first time since the start of the war in Ukraine, according to data from the European Commission and there is more optimism across all sectors of the economy, coupled with a sharp decline of inflation expectations.
Declining spreads and rates
The picture favors a drop in yields on the secondary market: the 4,2-year benchmark BTP drops to +4,33% (from 2,2% yesterday) and its German counterpart to 2,3% (from 199%). The spread thus drops to 1,77 basis points (-XNUMX%).
Dollar in retreat, gold shines
The day's macroeconomic data scrambled the dollar, which after the US jobs report took the downward path. The euro appreciated by about 0,8% above 1,06.
Among the raw materials salt the Petroleum, in a week that did not give black gold great satisfaction. Today, however, Brent appreciates by 1,5% and moves towards 80 dollars a barrel; the WTI rises by a similar percentage and chases close to the $75.
US weekly inventories fell more than expected yesterday and China is preparing for the Lunar New Year holidays by forecasting double traffic compared to 2022 on roads, railways, skies and seas, encouraging purchases of crude oil.
Gas is back over 70 euros, while gold shines, with spot gold gaining 1,6%, to $1862,65 an ounce.
The Epiphany rally is worth about 5% for Piazza Affari
Piazza Affari gains about 5% this week. Leading the Ftse Mib today Saipem, +6,22%, in an oil sector well tuned at European level.
Among the technologists stm takes its revenge with a growth of 2,5%.
Industrial stocks such as Pirelli +2,5% and Interpump +2,72% remain on the shields.
In the automotive sector, it also closed an excellent session Iveco +2,45%, while Stellantis, +0,74%, lags a bit after CEO Carlos Tavares said yesterday that more car plants will be closed if high prices for electric vehicles lead to a contraction in vehicle markets compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Le banks maintain the positive intonation seen in recent days. The best today is Bper +2,61%, while Mediobanca is the only one with a very slight decrease, -0,06%. The good performance of government bonds also favored purchases on utility: Italgas +2,47%, Enel +2,25%, Terna +2,1%%.
Among the blue chips Diasorin still loses share, -0,55%, despite the slight rise in the pharma index at European level.
