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Bond, the race continues: two disturbing signals

For the first time since the 70s, the yield on thirty-year T-bonds is below 1% and the US bond curve has inverted: all signs of an economic slowdown – Will central banks take the field? Meanwhile Wal-Mart flies

Bond, the race continues: two disturbing signals

US 1-year T-bonds fell below 10%, the likes of which hadn't happened since the 2007s. Meanwhile, the yield curve on US government bonds has inverted: 30-year treasuries yield less than two-year ones. The last time such a reversal occurred was in June XNUMX, as the sub-prime mortgage crisis escalated. These are the two most evident signs of the slowdown in the global economy which is picking up speed at all latitudes, from Sweden, which joined the club of countries that lend only with negative yields on Wednesday, including XNUMX-year bonds, to Mexico, which yesterday cut its taxi.

The trend at the origin of the sharp drop in losses on Wednesday has partially reversed thanks to the excellent results of the big US consumers (Wal-Mart +6,1%). But what heartens the optimists is the conviction that the cavalry charge, that is, the intervention of central banks, is about to arrive. Olli Rehn, the Finnish central banker already among the hawks of the ECB, also hoped for the launch in September of a "significant stimulus package" by Frankfurt. These statements held back the single currency traded this morning at 1,1099 against the dollar.

CHINA PROMISES REPAIR ON DUTIES. SOS HONG KONG

And so the markets are starting to close in a humble way a week that has seen more than one alarm signal go off.

Chinese stock markets made slight progress this morning, awaiting data on the performance of the Hong Kong economy (-0,4%), now surrounded by Beijing's special forces.

In equilibrium Tokyo, which has recovered the initial losses. Japan has returned to being the main holder of US bonds ahead of China, which reiterated yesterday that it will respond to the increase in US tariffs. Beijing has also rejected Donald Trump's attempt to link Hong Kong's management of the crisis with future developments in trade negotiations.

BUT ALIBABA INVESTS IN NBA BASKETBALL

Alibaba co-founder Joseph Tsai is about to buy the Brooklyn Nets. The cost of the operation would be around 2,35 billion dollars. This is the highest price ever paid for an NBA team.

The Korean Kospi is down (-0,8%): tonight Kim launched two more missiles into the China Sea.

Modest recoveries on Wall Street yesterday after massive losses of around 3% on Wednesday. The Dow Jones closed at +0,39% (against -3,05% in the previous session). S&P +0,25% (against -2,935%), the Nasdaq still down -0,09% (-3,0% on the eve).

Cisco fell sharply (-8,6%) after announcing a 25% drop in revenues in China.

MAXI SCANDAL IN SIGHT FOR GENERAL ELECTRIC

Much worse General Electric (-11,3%). An inside source accused the giant of hiding potential losses of $38,1 billion in its accounts.

GIBRALTAR RELEASES IRANIAN TANKER. SUPERSTAR GOLD

Oil rebounds after two sessions of heavy losses: Brent trades at 55,06 dollars a barrel. The strong and unexpected increase in US inventories weighed on the market.

Meanwhile, Gibraltar has released the Iranian tanker Grace 1, stopped on 4 July because it was carrying oil bound for Syria. The British colony has received assurances from Tehran that the crude will not be brought into Syrian territory.

On Wednesday, in Piazza Affari, Eni -2,7% and Saipem -4,7%. HSBC raised its recommendation to Buy, target price €5,1. Tenaris -5,4% under the pressure of Argentina crisis. In Buenos Aires, the peso is recovering (+6%).

Still on the shields gold, at 1.521 dollars an ounce, a thread from the 2013 record.

PARIS (-0,27%) AND FRANKFURT (-0,7%) WEAK IN AUGUST XNUMXTH

Weak European price lists in activity, albeit half-service, even in mid-August. Both Paris (-0,27%) and Frankfurt (-0,7%) did not recover even a fraction of Wednesday's losses. In particular, stocks in the automotive sector are under fire.

The mid-August break allowed the Italian market to avoid worse troubles, after a session in deep red in the wake of the slowdown of the German and Chinese economies but also of theprogress of the political crisis.

LITE VIA FACEBOOK BETWEEN COUNT AND SALVINI

With a letter published on Facebook, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte accused Interior Minister Matteo Salvini of "unfair collaboration" and of generating "institutional tears" motivated by "political ardor". 

“When Conte reproaches me for being obsessed with closed ports, I confirm it: I am obsessed with the safety of citizens,” replies the Interior Minister. Today the show continues.

PIAZZA AFFARI STARTS FROM -2,53%, BTP AT 1,51%

The ten-year BTP restarts from 1,51%. Piazza Affari left 2,53% on the ground on Wednesday, on the edge of 20 thousand points (20.020).

In red the banks, which burned the recoveries of the day before: Unicredit -3,9%, Ubi Banca -2,9%, Intesa Sanpaolo -2%. Only Monte Paschi went up (+0,5%), even under braking from the +3% at the start of the session.

Heavy automotive: Ferrari -2% (Goldman Sachs raises to Buy from Neutral) Pirelli -3,9%, Fiat Chrysler -3,4%.

Also noteworthy are the declines of Leonardo (-3,8%) and Stm (-4,8%).

Moncler -2,5%: Jefferies has lowered the target price to 41 euros, from 44 euros.

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