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Calm on the stock market, amid pressure on US debt and rising oil prices

by Ugo Bertone – Today's key appointment is the monthly monetary policy meeting of the ECB with the subsequent press conference by President Trichet. From his words, new ideas could emerge on the vision of the economy and on the prospects for interest rates.

The Milan Stock Exchange is trying to leave behind the difficulties of the eve, linked to the bad news on the US economy and skirmishes over the Greek crisis. The Federal Reserve's beige book shows that the US economy is growing at a stable pace, but that in 4 of the 12 districts monitored there is a slowdown whose main cause is attributable to the higher costs of fuel and food products.

 

Fitch's warning on US debt finally arrived last night: the agency could downgrade Washington's government bonds to rubbish if the White House and Congress fail to agree on the new debt ceiling. US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner has assured that the agreement will be reached by early August.

 

In the aftermath of the OPEC meeting which saw no agreement on the increase in production desired by Saudi Arabia and opposed by Iran, Venezuela and Algeria, crude oil is rising. After gaining 1,6% yesterday, this morning the WTI marks a new rise of 0,6% to 101,4 dollars a barrel. Brent is trading at 118 dollars.

 

The FtseMib index, however, rose by 0,2% at the start thanks also to the rebound in the prices of the two banks most penalized by yesterday's decline: Popolare di Milano rose by 1,9% while Monte Paschi advanced by 1,4, 5%. It has been disclosed that, following the sale of the rights associated with the capital increase, Crédit Agricole has reduced its stake in Intesa from 3,8 to 2%. Ache Generali, which sold 3/4,5 of the rights, dropped from 3,8 to XNUMX%.

 

The stock exchanges of London, Paris and Frankfurt rose by 0,1%, yesterday evening the American stock market closed down with the Dow Jones down by 0,1%, S&P -0,4%, Nasdaq -0,9%. The general weakness also involved Asian stock markets, with the exception of Tokyo which closed up by 0,1%. Hong Kong is down 1%, Shanghai -1,2%, Mumbai -0,1%.

 

Today's key event is the ECB's monthly monetary policy meeting with the subsequent press conference by President Jean Claude Trichet. From his words, new ideas could emerge on the vision of the economic trend and on the prospects for interest rates. The central bank should confirm rates at the current 1,25%, however giving signs of a restrictive approach to monetary policy and thus preparing the market for a possible rate hike in July. Meanwhile, the euro is well supported against the dollar, pending the ECB meeting: the single currency is trading at 1,4628 from 1,458 at the previous close.

 

Gemina stands out among the stocks that could offer significant insights, after Changi, the company that manages the Singapore airport (already a shareholder with 8%) expressed interest in increasing its stake. Dea Capital is also in the spotlight: the Turkish subsidiary Migros has announced the sale of the discout chain Sok for 600 million euros. The transaction makes the sale of the remaining stake in Migros (13,7%) easier.

 

Positive (+1,68%) the market reaction to the publication of Fiat's pro forma data after the inclusion of Chrylser in the consolidated accounts. Negative expectations for Azimut after Banca Leonardo and Equita both cut their target prices to 9 and 9,4 euros respectively. Meanwhile, Maire Tecnomin's trickle continues, dropping another 2,8 percent on the stock market.

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