Raphael Warnock, the African-American Protestant pastor who directs the same Ebenezer church in Atlanta that belonged to Martin Luther King, is in the lead by 35 votes over the Republican candidate, who currently boasts 49,6% of the vote. Republican David Perdue has a minimal lead, 460 votes, over his Democratic rival in the other challenge in Georgia which could overturn the balance in the US Senate. But the votes of the polling stations that decreed Joe Biden's victory in November have yet to be scrutinized. A clamorous success for the Democrats is possible, if not probable, on the day when Trump's deputy, Mike Pence, will have to certify the election of Biden as the tycoon's successor, despite the sixty appeals of the outgoing president against the November vote. All in a Washington in a state of siege for the feared street demonstrations of white supremacists. An ending worthy of Stephen King, destined to condition the fate of the markets, which, as usual, simplify (often wrongly) the effects of politics on the economy: a Congress in the hands of the Democrats is seen as the green light for a more debt but also more taxes and rules to condition finance and digital.
US MANUFACTURE STARTS AGAIN, PINK PROVISIONS FOR CHIPS
The first effect of this sensation, pending the final outcome of the polls (the recounting of votes is almost obvious, given the minimal differences) is the increase in yields on ten-year Treasury Notes, very close to 1% yield.
Wall Street futures are worsening, Nasdaq is down 1,3%, S&P 500 -0,3%.
Yesterday US stocks rose thanks to good data from the manufacturing industry and the performance of oil (+4,5%): Dow Jones +0,55%, S&P +0,71%, Nasdaq +0,95% , thanks to the rally of Micron (+4,3%).
SAUDI ARABIA AND US STOCKS PUSH OIL
The push was supported by the other news of the day. Brent oil is back to February levels, following yesterday's 4,9% jump. This morning, North Sea crude oil rose again, to 54 dollars a barrel, +0,5%. There is not only the unexpected decision by Saudi Arabia to voluntarily proceed with a series of production cuts of about a million barrels, there are also indications on incoming inventories from the American Petroleum Institute: last week reserves should have dropped by 491 million barrels to XNUMX million.
CHINA AT THE TOP FOR 13 YEARS, A BOND FOR ALIBABA
In Asia, the CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzen stock exchanges remains close to the highs of the last 13 years, up by 0,1%. In China, the discovery of about fifty cases of coronavirus in the province of Hubei has led the authorities to close the most important highways that cross it, also stopping all long-stay bus routes leaving from the capital Shijizhuang.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell by 0,3%. Alibaba is up 3,5% after three consecutive sessions of declines. Reuters reports that the online commerce giant is preparing to issue a dollar bond worth at least five billion.
The European bond market moved little. German Bund at -0,56% from -0,60%, ten-year Btp stable at 0,55%. Tensions continue within the majority. The most likely solution is that of a reshuffle. The hypothesis of early elections is remote, judging by the price trend.
ANTI-COVID MEASURES HOLDING DOWN EUROPE
The increase in oil prices supported the stock markets of the Old Continent yesterday. Brent is on an upward path after Saudi Arabia and Russia reached a compromise on production. In detail, crude oil output will remain unchanged in February and then rise in March. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak withdrew from an immediate increase due to the expected drop in global demand caused by the resurgence of the Covid-19 virus and the related restrictive measures enacted to contain it. The UK has decided on a third total lockdown for six weeks. Germany, Europe's largest economy, has extended the current restrictions for another three weeks until January 31. And, as stated in a report by Morgan Stanley, "with a high number of new cases and health systems under pressure in much of Europe, the restrictions look set to be extended further".
BUSINESS PLACE +0,5%. THE INDUSTRIAL RECOVERY LOSES IMPETUS
Piazza Affari closed down by 0,52%, at 22.200,60 points. In December, the Italian manufacturing PMI stood at 52,8 points and for the sixth consecutive month it remains above the threshold of 50, the watershed between expansion and contraction of production activity. It is up from the November level (51,5) but is lower than consensus expectations (54,0).
In red also Paris (-0,44%) and Frankfurt (-0,55%). London +0,64% on the wave of new aid to companies for the lockdown.
ONLY LARGE-SCALE RETAILERS RISE: CARREFOUR +3,6%
The stocks of large-scale distribution favored by the new lockdown shine: in Paris Carrefour scores a rise of 3,59%. In London Next +8% on the sound of excellent year-end sales.
FLY GOLD ETF. YELLOW METAL IN RALLY
Fifth consecutive rise for gold, with the price at a two-month high at 1.945 dollars in the wake of the growth in infections and the uncertainty surrounding the run-off in Georgia which have exalted the qualities of the yellow metal as a safe-haven asset. The world's largest ETF specializing in physical-backed gold investments recorded its largest daily inflow since September on Monday, after a long period of capital outflows. In 2020 gold gained 25% in dollars, 15% in euros.
BOOMING DEMAND FOR 15-YEAR BTPs: 105 BILLION REQUESTS
Fireworks for the Btp. Against an offer of 15-year bonds for 10 billion euro, the demand was 105 billion. The boom in demand has made it possible to keep low the yield offered to subscribers who will receive gross interest of 0,95% between now and 2037, paid in two six-monthly coupons.
The Btp/Bund spread closes just below 115.
MPS +6,1%. I LIKE THE TUSCAN MINI-MONTE
In Piazza Affari, Monte Paschi snatched it (+6,09% to 1,097 euros), supported by rumors about a plan for the spin-off of a mini MPS, concentrated in Tuscany (about 300 branches) which will keep the brand of the Sienese institute as part of the merger with Unicredit (-1,6%). Equita sim confirmed the hold rating and the target price at 1,6 euro. According to analysts, the spin off of a mini-bank "would not change the industrial sense of the agreement in any case".
The rest of the sector contrasted: Bper (+0,82%) and Mediobanca (+0,38%) did well, while Intesa Sanpaolo lost ground (-1,09%).
TENSION ON OIL. ENI AND SAIPEM SUPERSTAR
In great evidence are the Oil stocks. Eni closed the session with an increase of 3,71% after putting the sale of Australian assets on hold. Intesa confirmed the hold rating on the stock with a target price of 8,5 euro, while Equita sim reiterated the buy recommendation and the target price at 10 euro. Positive day also for Saipem (+4,13%) and Tenaris (+3,58%).
FCA and PSA moved little while awaiting the debut of Stellantis (January 18). FCA has announced it will invest $250 million to grow its presence in India through the launch of four new Jeep-branded SUV models over the next two years.
JP MORGAN CHOOSES CONTINENTAL AND CUTS PIRELLI
Down was Pirelli (-1,63%) on which JP Morgan reduced the recommendation from neutral to underweight. The broker updated their coverage of the auto and components sector, including Renault overweight in the European analyst focus list, raising the rating on Continental to overweight from neutral and lowering it (from overweight to neutral) on BMW. Overall, analysts believe 2021 will be a year of “profound volume recovery after Covid-19” for auto production.
BRAKE HERA. NEW INVESTIGATIONS FOR ATLANTIA
Among the worst Nexi (-2,6%), Hera (-2,56%) and Moncler (-2,76%). Atlantia -1,53%: there would be a new investigation for omission of official documents of the prosecutor against the managers of Aspi for the collapse of the Genoa bridge.
FINCANTIERI, CONTRACT FOR SUBMARINES HAS BEEN STARTED
Off the main Fincantieri list +0,9% after a maximum of +2%: the company is close to finalizing a 2,3 billion contract with the Navy for the construction of four submarines.
