The match, this time, is decided in Parliament. In Italy, but also in the USA. In Rome it will probably be the "responsible" who will close the crisis triggered by Matteo Renzi, even before it is opened. Long-time parliamentarian Bruno Tabacci is convinced of this, taking it for granted that Conte's appeal will attract a sufficient number of builders: “When the time comes and there is a group to join, they will come. They have no alternatives, if you go to vote what happens to them?”. In short, to quote Ennio Flaiano, the "situation is serious, but it is not serious". But, admitted and not granted that Conte collects a good number of defectors from Fi and IV to reach the majority in the Senate, the real problem is political and not numerical: what prospects can such a heterogeneous and ragged majority have and how long can it last?
The 0,64-year BTP restarts from XNUMX%. For analysts it could be a buying opportunity.
ASIAN PRICE LISTS ARE DOWN
In Washington, awaiting the final duel on impeachment, Joe Biden has decided to break the delay: faced with the worsening of the economy (965 requests for layoffs against 798) the new president presented the 1.900 billion dollar plan of aid and stimulus to the economy. To avoid Republican "filibustering" (or boycott) in the Senate, at least a handful of Republicans must say yes. Otherwise there will be another battle parallel to the one about Trump.
Political uncertainty (the American one, of course) is holding back the price lists, which are also affected by the return of the pandemic to China where it all began: the scientists of the World Health Organization, meanwhile, are blocked in Wuhan because two are positive at Covid and the quarantine has started.
Stock markets in Asia are down, moving away from the highs reached during the week. Tokyo Nikkei -0,7%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0,6%. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen price lists -1,1%, Kospi of Seoul -1,3%, BSE Sensex of Mumbai -0,7%.
IN AMERICA INTERVENTIONS FOR 25% OF GDP
US price lists are cautious: Dow Jones -0,22%, S&P 500 -0,12%. NASDAQ -0,38%. The quarterly reports of the big banks come out tonight.
The Biden package, 456 billion dollars to be distributed in droves with checks for 1.400 dollars per person, adds up to the 3.900 billion dollars that have already arrived. In all, the United States has enacted measures amounting to about a quarter of GDP. The resources are all to be financed with new debt, but there shouldn't be any problems: there is at least one giant buyer, the Central Bank.
The yield on the 1,09-year Treasury Note falls to 1,13%, from 1.845% yesterday. Gold barely moved at 38.000 dollars a barrel. Bitcoin settles down after three consecutive rising sessions: this morning it traded at $2, down 1,213%. Euro dollar at XNUMX, slightly down.
CRISIS EFFECT: ONLY BUSINESS PLACE IN RED
The government's difficulties penalized the Milan stock exchange, yesterday unable to keep up with Wall Street and the rest of the European stock exchanges. However, according to the operators, the situation remains under control, also because the brokers, judging by the quotas, do not foresee early elections. “It seems unlikely that Italy will go to an election, so there should be minimal impact on risk sentiment,” said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at Axi. In the other markets of the Eurozone, on the other hand, the wait for the first stimulus plan of the Biden era and the launch of the quarterly earnings campaign of the big US banks, arriving today, held the scene.
Piazza Affari dropped 0,47%, at 22.637 points.
PARIS AGAINST THE SALE OF CARREFOUR
Positive ground for the other markets: Paris at +0,32%. Elisabeth Borne, France's labor minister, said she was against Canadian convenience store operator Alimentation Couche-Tard's sale of Carrefour.
London at +0,76%. Virgin Galactic, the space company of British billionaire Richard Branson, rose by 20%, to 32 dollars, on Wall Street, after the news of the launch of an ETF dedicated to the space sector by Ark Investments.
GERMAN GDP -5% IN 2020. BETTER THAN EXPECTED
Frankfurt at +0,36%. The German economy recorded a contraction of 5,0% in 2020, less than expected and less than that of the last global financial crisis. The statistics office said growth likely stagnated in the fourth quarter but has picked up good momentum going into 2021.
SPAIN: WE WILL CUT DEBT ALREADY THIS YEAR
Madrid +0,12%. Spain expects to start reducing its deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio in 2021. The Spanish government expects the country's economy to recover this year, with growth of more than 7%, after contracting more than 11 % estimated for 2020. In the third quarter, the Spanish debt-to-GDP ratio reached 114,1% from 97,5% in 2019.
BTP AUCTION FULLY SAILING. SPREADS TO 118
The spread has increased, albeit remaining at very low levels: the yield differential with the ten-year German Bund rises to 119 basis points (+6,2%) and the BTP rate rises to +0,61%.
Yesterday's auction went through without problems: the Treasury assigned the maximum amount on a range offered of 7,75-9,25 billion euros.
The new 7-year BTP maturing in March 2028 (coupon 0,25%) was placed for 4,5 billion at a yield of 0,30%, up from 0,19% at the mid-December auction. The second tranche of the 30-year BTP September 2051 (1,70%) was assigned for 2 billion with a yield of 1,47%. Bid-to-cover at 1,37. Citigroup recommends taking advantage of any declines in the Italian XNUMX-year bond to increase exposure to Italy's debt.
FCA RUNS, THE COUPON ARRIVES. MONDAY AT VIA STELLANTIS
On the eve of the last day of trading on the Ftse Mib, the Fiat Chrysler share (the new Stellantis shares will be traded from Monday) shot up by 3,12%, to 13,17 euros. The rally is linked to technical reasons, after the detachment of the extraordinary max coupon of 1,84 euro which will be paid on January 29th. “It appears that some investors have decided to sell shares yesterday and buy them today for tax reasons,” said a trader. In addition, Stellantis stock "will have a higher free float than it currently has and therefore funds are likely to be buying to rebalance their portfolios," an analyst said. Equita sim reduced the target price from 20,5 to 18,7 euro "for the detachment of the extraordinary dividend", however confirming the buy recommendation. Banca Akros instead sees the FCA share at 17,40 euros and confirmed the buy rating.
In Exor's wake (+1,19%), but Cnh (+0,85%) is also in evidence. Instead, Ferrari stops in the pits (-0,03%).
BERLUSCONI RECOVERED, MEDIASET ROOMS
The speculation on the health conditions of Silvio Berlusconi, hospitalized in the Principality of Monaco for heart problems, makes Mediaset jump (+2,8%), even if with below average volumes.
The banking sector saw little change with sales prevailing, with Unicredit and Intesa San Paolo down respectively by 1,41% and 0,7%. Mps is down (-2,07%). Azimut is also down (-1,77%), after the recent strong gains.
UTILITY, ASCOPIAVE SHINES
Some insights on Tim, up 1%, Leonardo rebounds (+0,9%). Sales on utilities linked to regulated assets such as Snam and Terna (-0,6%) and Italgas (-1,36%). In the light of Ascopiave (+2,4%) on the eve of the presentation of the strategic plan to 2024.
BNP PARIBAS AWARDS GENERALI
Generals -1%. Bnp Paribas started the coverage with a positive opinion.
The CEO Philippe Donnet is working on a reorganization of the insurance group with the aim of accelerating the implementation of the strategic plan, and which could concern changes to the managerial lines, as reported by three media sources.
Unicredit -1,5%. In the coming days, Monte dei Paschi should open the data room to potential partners interested in the privatization process launched by the Ministry of the Economy, the controlling shareholder with 64%.
UNIEURO TEARS, AVIO GOES INTO ORBIT
Among the minor stocks, Unieuro (+5%) stands out after the announcement of revenues growing by 7,4%, to 1,9 billion in the first nine months of the 2020/21 financial year. Mediobanca Securities confirmed the “Outperform” recommendation on the stock and brought the target price to €17,2 from the previous 14,8.
Sale Avio (+7,7%). Aerospace stocks are soaring on the creation of an ETF that invests only in aerospace/satellite launch companies.
