While in an interview with ABC Joe Biden throws down a gauntlet to Vladimir Putin by answering an insidious and pre-established question from the journalist, the whole world wonders if there was a need and what is the purpose of "Silent Joe" . And above all one wonders how much distance there is between the words of the new US president and the "tolerance" with which Obama has always avoided an open diplomatic confrontation with the Russians, leaving the field free on even very burning issues such as the terrain of the bitter conflict Syria or Iran.
Subsequently, the summit in Alaska between China and the United States, which inaugurated the administration's foreign policy, also got off to a stormy start amid mutual accusations. On the one hand, the US has once again raised the issue of human rights on the two burning chapters of Taiwan and Hong Kong. On the other hand, the Chinese have kept the point firm, demonstrating that the development plans on 5G and environmental issues are concrete and that the game for geopolitical hegemony is open. In fact, it is no secret that for months the Chinese have been implementing oil purchases from Iran and Venezuela despite the US embargoes. The goal is to hinder Biden's action and make the two countries less amenable to American pressure, to redefine roles and agreements in two areas such as Latin America and the Middle East which thus always remain incandescent. And their instability continues in the first case to favor migratory flows that pour into the borders with the USA and in the other to make a political and civil recovery plan impossible in Lebanon and Syria.
The geopolitical picture remains complex: after this meeting in Alaska, the Cold War takes on harsher tones and the tug of war between Biden and Xi clashes with the strategy document on National Defense, in which the new Administration has outlined a primary role of diplomacy and the apparent abandonment of a rush of military force, which is relegated to a last resort. Indeed, an imbalance has been announced towards a greater "civil commitment" of the armed forces, which, given the vaccination emergency, is certainly very consistent, but could create some dysfunction between operatives and the necessary coverage and methods of managing missions at the abroad. Also because Chinese military policy, just like Russia's, goes well beyond its borders and extends to areas of interference and Africa and Latin America.
BECAUSE EVEN AT HOME THERE IS NO PEACE FOR ASIAN AMERICANS
And if the internal emergency linked to the extremism seen at work in the assault on the Capitol on January 6 weren't enough, the greatest concern now turns to hate crimes against Asian Americans, especially in California and Georgia, which have reached culminating in the Atlanta massacre a few days ago, in which eight women were killed. There are over 3.800 reported cases of racism against Asian communities in the country, thanks not only to a stigmatization of the origin of the infection by the previous administration, but also to the exacerbation of the serious economic effects of the pandemic, which, as in previous war situations , has fueled a civil clash between communities. Especially in areas such as Georgia, where in these 50 years the children of now naturalized American immigrants have successfully ridden the American dream in professions as well as in politics. But above all in full social inclusion in what is one of the most populous and multicultural American states, with the busiest airport in the world, that of Atlanta. The State that was at the center of the trickle of the ballot of votes in the last elections, and also the one most exposed to climate change and therefore sensitive to the US Government's commitment to the Paris COP26 agreements.
Biden's visit with deputy Kamala Harris to Atlanta was already planned, because it also marked the beginning of a tour to verify the results of the vaccination campaign, and because of the massacre it became the occasion for a necessary confrontation with representatives of the Asian-American community that renewed the controversy over the decree to control the sale of weapons. The provision is blocked in Congress, and has in fact been shelved despite appearing among the priorities of Biden's electoral campaign, who had made clear promises on this aspect, unfortunately recurring in the massacres of innocent citizens in the USA, as in the cases of schools several times remembered in the past by Biden.
THE EUROPEAN MATCH: A FRIENDLY ON SOLID "NEGOTIAL" BASES
Where instead Biden should walk on velvet is the European match. The season of relations is reopening with a priority relating to the tax on the "digital tax": last year, before the summer, the Americans withdrew from the negotiations and now, precisely during the Italian presidency of the G20, we will have the burden of manage the resumption of work on a multilateral project, mostly aimed at the US digital giants, at least in the OECD plans. This and other issues should form part of a common platform for legislation on a technology sector which in numbers remains dominated by the United States: according to Bank of America, in the tech sector the value of US companies exceeds 9 trillion dollars, which corresponds to the capitalization of all European stock markets, including Switzerland and Great Britain.
The European debate on the digital tax is taking on contours which, instead of helping to define a stable, shared and long-term plan aimed at avoiding international disputes, risk creating further complexities for EU companies. The challenge of digitization cannot be faced by launching into tax disputes: we should focus on the diffusion of digital access, on products and services, as we have learned from the pandemic. Precisely because the technological companies listed in Europe are a small percentage compared to the American reality, we should focus more on the stability, security and stability of a European digital infrastructure, finding a dialogue with the USA that does not become a boomerang for European companies with excessive taxation.
Also because there is a common ground from which to start, and it is the union of intent on climate change with the USA, which will return to the COP26 negotiating table in Glasgow, as reiterated in January by John Kerry on an official visit to Brussels, and it is extremely promising to see not only the EU and the US but all 196 countries go from political proclamations to the much desired action plan. And the common path to the Green New Deal will also stimulate infrastructure investments that see technology as the winning pivot for the creation of efficient solutions: from agritech to biotech, and beyond.
Against the backdrop of this growing wave of nervousness and new chapters of an increasingly cold war between the US, China and Russia, what is certain is that US companies are starting to experience problems, with international trade conditioned by deficiencies in logistical structures and of transport, and skyrocketing container costs practically imposed by China. Furthermore, there are production problems in the US too, in a pandemic situation that is far from returning to normal in the short term, beyond the already excellent prospects inherent in the overheating of inflation and yields on longer-term Treasuries.
However, estimates on the country's recovery, thanks to both a winning strategy on the vaccination campaign and the massive stimulus package of 1,9 trillion dollars just launched, speak of a +7% in the second half of the year, which could also overtake China, despite the fact that it started with a significant time advantage.
Powell was therefore right to calm spirits, considering the inflationary flame transitory (after the vote of the members of the Fed Board who, by a large majority, see rates unchanged until 2023), while for Biden's foreign policy the fire burns and risks become persistent, fueling investor jitters as well as Putin's.
