ASIA, THE RALLY CONTINUES AWAITING THE ECB
FIAT SPEEDS UP, BUT ONLY THANKS TO THE USA
Bags have three hopes: a) a rate cut by the ECB tomorrow; b) the imminent decline in Chinese reserve requirements; c) new interventions by the Fed, as soon as possible.
In the meantime, the markets register positive signs.
Confirmation comes from Asia. Tokyo +0,18% is about to end the seventh consecutive session on the rise, preceded by Hong Kong +0,36%. Beijing is preparing, according to rumors, to widen the mesh of monetary policy. In the meantime, he launches a Bondi-style mini-austerity: the overpriced shark will no longer be on the official lunch menus.
In the US, meanwhile, orders collected by factories grew by 0,7% in May, more than the economists' forecasts which indicated an average of +0,1%. But the data do not wan the hope of a forthcoming intervention by the Federal Reserve. At the end of the Wall Street session, the Dow Jones index rose by 0,6%, S&P +0,6% (to its highest level in two months), Nasdaq +0,7%. Facebook rebounds +1,4% after GM has decided to resume advertising on the social network.
Ma the real battlefield remains Europe. Today in Rome, Prime Minister Mario Monti, having set aside the spending review dossier for a few hours, receives Angela Merkel in Rome. A delicate meeting, after the German Chancellor gave the impression of marrying the line of Finland and the Netherlands, both determined to downsize the results of the Brussels meeting. Meanwhile, an extraordinary Eurogroup is looming for 20 July, confirming that the next meeting, scheduled for the weekend, will not be sufficient to define the rules for implementing the agreements sanctioned by the European Council.
The spotlights, however, are on the meeting of the ECB directorate which will announce its rate decisions tomorrow. And not only. The Central Bank, according to forecasts, will lower the cost of money by at least a quarter of a point, even if the ranks of those who even think of a 0,50% cut from the current 1 percent are growing. Mario Draghi, however, could also take another measure: cancel interest on deposits with the ECB, in order to push the banks to lend money to the production system. Such an extreme measure has not even been taken by the Fed.
The ECB, moreover, according to the New York Times he is about to assume "the widest powers in the world which an institution led by men not invested by an electoral passage has". In fact, the ECB is about to take the lead in the Supervision of European banks, which will allow the central bank to have both control and the power to direct the choices of institutions, including in terms of investments in public debt.
According to the majority of economists interviewed by Reuters and Bloomberg in their usual polls, the ECB will announce on Thursday the cut of a quarter point of the euro's key rate, which is expected to fall to 0,75% from the current 1%, which is already an all-time low.
These forecasts made possible the sixth consecutive increase for the Milan Stock Exchange, With the 'FtseMib index which gained 1,3%. In five sessions the recovery was 11.7%. The decline in the index since the beginning of the year has narrowed to -3,9%. The London Stock Exchange rose by 0,8%, Paris +0,9%, Frankfurt +1,2%.
The improvement of the BTP continued after last Friday's agreement at Brussels European Council. The 5,60-year yield fell to 5,70% from 407% yesterday, the spread with the Bund at 12, down XNUMX basis points.
The wait for the rate cut it pushed up the most cyclical sectors in Europe: automotive (Stoxx index) rose by 2,7%, raw materials +2,2%, oil +1,8%.
In Milan, Fiat advanced by 5% after announcing that it will exercise the option to increase its stake in Chrysler by buying the shares of the American union Uaw. Yesterday evening, at the presentation of the 500 L, which from today goes into production at the Serbian plant in Kragujevac, Sergio Marchionne reiterated the company line: the very bad prospects of the European market ("which won't improve before 24-36 months" ) make it impossible to keep all the Italian plants running, unless they produce as suppliers to Chrysler. But with costs and delivery guarantees competitive with the market. If this does not happen, an Italian plant is certainly at risk.
Fiat Industrial +3,1%, Exor +4,8%, Pirelli +3,3%.
Meanwhile in Paris Peugeot rose by 3,6%: according to rumors, the group is preparing to announce a massive reduction in personnel, equal to 10% of employees active in France. Volkswagen gained 2,7%, BMW +2,6%.
Oil leap which gains 4,5% with WTI at 87,5 dollars a barrel and Brent at 100,9 dollars. Sector stocks benefited. Eni +3,3%, Saipem +2,3%, Tenaris +3,5%.
The banks are positive with Unicredit rising by 2,6%, Intesa +2,2%, Popolare Milano +2,6%.
Bad day yesterday for Generali, down 1,3%, after the news that the company will issue a 750 million 30-year bond at a rate of 10,12%.
Closing down for utility, despite government sources have denied that a decree is on the way to block electricity, water, gas and highway tariffs for 18 months.
After a sharp drop in start-up, Terna reduced the drop to -1,4%, Snam finished down by 2,7%, Enel -0,5%, Atlantia -0,6%. Buzzi is up sharply +4,2%.
Among theand small and mid caps, Telecom Italia Media gained 4,6%, Geox +6%.
