EU President Jean-Claude Juncker reminded Europeans yesterday that ECB policy has so far allowed savings of 50 billion euros on debt financing. A reminder (in German, just to underline the divorce from London) that falls at a delicate moment for the debt markets, together with oil, the weak link in finance on the eve of autumn.
Uncertainty about the next moves by the Fed and the Bank of Japan are forcing operators to lighten their positions on "long" securities with immediate effects also on stock lists. Thus the yield on Tokyo's 0,57-year bonds rose (0,47% against 1,7% a week ago), on the US 1,27-year bond (over 10%) and the BTP spread (13%, 20 points higher against the corresponding Bund), Spanish (+XNUMX points) and Portuguese (+XNUMX bps). The result? Stock markets are cooling down, now convinced that rates will rise (probably in December). Volatility is rising, especially in Mediterranean Europe.
BAYER-MONSANTO AT THE START. APPLE RETURNS ABOVE 600 BILLION
The Nikkei index in Tokyo dropped significantly, down 1,4% due to uncertainty about the Central Bank's next moves. The country's two main financial newspapers wrote that the Bank of Japan is preparing to further lower rates on deposits, which are already negative today. Next week, the central bank should bring the rate to -0,2% from the current -0,1%. Sydney was also down (-0,4%).
Reduced activity this morning on Asian lists. The Chinese and Korean markets are closed from today for three days due to the start of the end-of-summer holidays. Hong Kong (+0,4%) will stop tomorrow together with Singapore.
Weak Wall Street: Dow Jones -0,18%, S&P 500 -0,06%. The Nasdaq performed well (+0,36%). Monsanto +0,5% after deal of the century. The agribusiness giant has finally passed under the control of Bayer (+0,27%) for a value of 66 billion dollars.
Apple's race continues (+2,1%), on the wave of rumors about the extraordinary start of sales of the iPhone7. The market value of Apple has risen above 600 billion dollars for the first time since April. In the standings today Apple (607 billion) precedes Alphabet (535 billion) and Microsoft (440 billion).
FALLING IN STOCKS DOESN'T STOP CRUDE
Uber today invited XNUMX citizens of Pittsburgh to experience the service offered by its self-driving cars. This is the first world test under normal traffic conditions. Meanwhile in China Tesla was the protagonist of a new fatal accident.
The most important event on the macroeconomic front was the Energy Information Administration's release of US oil inventories. The consensus was expecting an increase of 3,8 million barrels. Conversely, US inventories fell by 559 barrels. Crude oil initially rebounded strongly before falling back: Brent fell back about 2 points to $46,30. On Wall Street, the energy sector has lost 5,4% in the last three sessions.
Eni collapsed, reducing its profit to a timid 0,2% with a price of 13,14 euros. The Six-Legged Dog was supported by the signing of a concession contract with the Government of Montenegro relating to the exploration of 4 offshore blocks of the country. Saipem +0,13%, Tenaris +0,6%.
MILAN CLOSES IN PATCH, SPREAD UP
Contrasted closing for the European Stock Exchanges, which experienced a session marked by volatility. Milan, after a session straddling parity, closed at 16.540 points, down by 0,05%. Paris (-0,23%) and Madrid (-0,04%) were also down. Positive, however, London (+0,3%) and Frankfurt (+0,06%).
The data on European industrial production for July caused concern, down by 1,1% compared to June (-1% in the entire European Union). Also on an annual basis there was a decrease of 0,5%.
Still red alert on the inflation front: in Italy in August it remained negative on an annual basis (-0,1%), despite having risen by 0,2% on a monthly basis. In France it grew by a meager 0,2% per year, despite the +0,3% in August.
The rates on Italian 10-year and 30-year BTPs rose to 1,34% and 2,39% respectively, confirming their highs since the end of June. The Italy-Germany spread is also widening, following the rise of the German card.
DERIVATIVES: ASKED FROM MORGAN STANLEY FOR 4,1 BILLION
In the context of an investigation into derivatives, the prosecution of the Court of Auditors has contested a total tax damage of 4,1 billion euros to Morgan Stanley as well as the director of public debt of the Treasury, Maria Cannata, and three former heads of the department : Vincenzo La Via, Domenico Siniscalco and Vittorio Grilli. The investigation concerns the 3,1 billion paid by the Ministry of the Economy to Morgan Stanley for the early termination of some contracts, during the most acute period of the financial crisis.
MORELLI HUNTING FOR 5 BILLION FOR MONT
Marco Morelli is the new managing director of Banca Monte Paschi (-1,97%), unanimously co-opted yesterday by the board of directors meeting in Milan. Surprisingly, on the same occasion, the president of the institute Massimo Tononi resigned, thus wanting to express his disagreement with the modalities of the exit of Fabrizio Viola, the CEO "fired" by the minister of the Treasury with a phone call (and a severance pay of 3,1 million).
According to a note that arrived at the end of a long board of directors, Morelli will also have the role of general manager and will take office from 20 September. He will have to carry out the most complex financial operation in the institution's multi-centennial history. MPS, solicited by the supervision of the ECB, with which Morelli had an initial informal contact yesterday, will have to sell 9,2 billion net non-performing loans and consequently cover the losses and new provisions with an increase of up to 5 billion euros.
The new CEO will have the uphill task of convincing the market of the goodness of the operation and of the Bank's future prospects. In the meantime Morelli will be able to solve the puzzle on the involvement or otherwise of the holders of subordinated bonds: a voluntary conversion would have the merit of limiting the request for a capital increase, currently up to 5 billion.
SUPERSTAR MANAGED: FINECO, SOUL AND POST OFFICE RISE
In great evidence Fineco Bank (+3,24%), while sales continue on the parent company Unicredit (-0,93%). Banco Popolare -0,6%, Ubi -1,7%. Among the insurance companies, Unipol rose by 1,2% and Generali fell by 1,6%. In asset management, Anima Holding and Poste Italiane advance. Equita analysts have commented on a possible merger with Pioneer. The transaction is deemed "interesting" provided it is conducted at reasonable valuations, on the basis of an armored distribution contract and with governance that reassures the market on the development of synergies.
LUXURY: TOD'S TURNOVER FALLS UNDER HERMES FIRE
The profit warning by Richemont (-2,8%) and the announcement by the Hermès maison (-7%) that this year it will not be possible to achieve the already envisaged objective of an 8% growth in sales have affected the sector of luxury. Sales also rained down on stocks on the Stock Exchange: Ferragamo lost 0,74%, Moncler 1,55%, Cucinelli -0,56% and Ynap -0,65%.
Tod's did worse: -3,66% before the accounts announced with the stock market closed. The first half ended with revenues of 497,6 million euros (-3,4%), an Ebitda equal to 17,3% of revenues at 86,3 million and a net profit of 37,4 million. The negative financial position is equal to 112,7 million.
FCA AND TELECOM WEAK, FILA SHOPPING IN THE UK
Volatile session for Fiat Chrysler (-1,5%). In the first stages (due to an error in entering orders it is reported in the trading rooms) the stock fell by 5% to 5,54 euros. Yesterday the EU Commission sent a letter to Italy and Germany inviting them to Brussels, probably in October, for a meeting to mediate the dispute opened by Berlin on the emissions of some FCA car models.
Purchases on Prysmian (+0,93%), on which Morgan Stanley confirmed the overweight recommendation. Telecom Italia is down (-1,11%): the CEO of the group Flavio Cattaneo reiterated that he does not fear Iliad's entry into the Italian market. This is also the opinion of Mediobanca Securities (outperform) and Morgan Stanley (overweight), but the stock continues to be under pressure.
Mediaset leap forward (+1,4%). The PwC Italia E&M Outlook Italy 2016-2020 report predicts that in 2020 advertising revenues will reach 9,1 billion (CAGR at 3,6%), while spending by end users will amount to 26,9 billion (CAGR at 4,1 ,XNUMX%).
Of note is Fila (-0,89%), which announced the acquisition of 100% of the British St Cuthberts Holding Limited and of the operating company it holds for a value of 5,4 million pounds.
Italmobiliare (-0,99%) completed the acquisition of control of Clessidra Sgr, following the authorization issued by the Bank of Italy.
