“In 2012 as a whole and in the next two years, unit wages should in fact continue to grow at a slower pace than consumer prices, with a consequent further reduction in real wages”. Translation from the bureaucratese of the Economic Bulletin of the Bank of Italy: the salaries of Italians will be increasingly lean, at least until 2014.
According to Bankitalia, therefore, in the second quarter of the year, household income is falling again in real terms, marking the average for the first half of the year a contraction of 3,9% compared to the same period of 2011. Second via Nazionale then, the cost of credit falls and the rates applied by banks to households and businesses, which however remain "above the euro area average". For the Bank of Italy, "the granting criteria" of the loans "are more favorable than the very restrictive ones at the beginning of the year".
Positive signals come only from the banks and the macroeconomy. If nothing else indeed lenders should not suffer too much from the continuation of the crisis. Italian banks are solid and if credit quality and profitability are affected by the worsening of the economic situation, the capitalization of institutions has further strengthened, underlines the Bank of Italy report.
Optimism also transpires regarding the macroeconomics. In fact, Italy will have a negative GDP in 2013 with estimates revised downwards, but over the next year there will still be an exit from the recession. As regards the forecasts on the GDP according to the national road it will drop by 2,4% in 2012, in line with what the government has said, and by 0,7% in 2013 against an estimate of -0,2% by the government. In this context, urges Bankitalia, "the implementation of the structural reforms and the measures already adopted remains a priority and crucial".
