Il Quantitative easing of the ECB and the decline in crude oil prices could produce a boost for the Italian GDP of 2015 and 2016 close to two percentage points. To say it is the Economic Bulletin of Bankitalia.
“The reduction in energy spending – reads the document – frees up resources that households and businesses can allocate to consumption and investments and could contribute to an effect on GDP in the order of half a percentage point in two years”.
To this factor should be added the purchase program launched by the central institution, which could translate into greater cumulative growth in GDP of 1,4 percentage points, as well as an increase in inflation of more than 0,5% in each of the two years. An impulse that could translate into GDP growth of more than 0,5% in 2015 and around 1,5% in 2016.
Bankitalia also informs that in the last quarter of 2014 the flow of new non-performing loans adjusted in relation to loans it rose to 2,7%, “two tenths of a point more than in the second and third quarters”.
However, some signs of improvement emerge from the first data for the January-February two-month period: "The overall exposure to debtors reported as non-performing for the first time is 6%, lower than in the same period of 2014, but in relation to the a slight increase was recorded in the November-December two-month period”. In 2014, the top five Italian banks recorded an average ROE that was still negative: -1,8% after the -2,4% recorded in 2013.
In the three months ending in February, however, the contraction of business loans on an annual basis it was 3% (-2,2% in November) and was affected by the uncertain restart of industrial production. The most penalized was the construction sector (-4,7%) also due to the high incidence of non-performing loans.
Instead, he stopped the decline in loans to households. With regard to supply conditions, conditions at the beginning of the year are improving both for businesses and for households, as emerged from the responses of Italian banks to the Bank lending survey of the ECB. The improvement in supply conditions, however, mainly regards the sector of larger companies.
