The Bank of Italy confirms de facto the estimates published on 12 July by the European Commission and revises its growth forecasts for Italy downwards. As foreseen by Brussels, also via Nazionale for 2018 sees Italy to grow by 1,3% from the +1,4% contained in the January report. Even more narrow is the estimate for 2019, when our GDP will increase "only" by 1% against the +1,1% estimated by the EU and the +1,2% previously forecast by the same institute led by Ignazio Visco . It improves in 2020, when the Gross Domestic Product will reach +1,2%.
Among the causes of the lower growth, according to Bank of Italy, figureor rising oil prices and uncertainty about tariffs. In detail: “The risks for economic activity derive above all from an accentuation of the protectionist orientation in the main countries” reads the report. As far as our country specifically is concerned, "growth in Italy continues, despite the signs of a slowdown that emerged in the spring months".
The pace is therefore slower than in the past. To confirm this there are also the estimates for the second quarter of 2018: +0,2% compared to the previous three months compared to +0,4% achieved in the second half of 2017.
The bulletin then highlights how the difficulties seen on the markets between May and June caused sovereign risk premiums to rise, which remain 113 points above the May level.
So the growth continues public debt which reached a new record in May total, rising by a good 14,6 billion compared to April and reaching 2.327,4 billion. According to the statistical bulletin of the Banca d'Itlaia, the increase since the end of 2017, when the debt amounted to 2.263 billion, was 84,3 billion. In percentage terms, this is an increase of 3,6%.
A little comforting figure that comes, among other things, on the day in which he insisted on the need for our country to carry out in 2018 a 5 billion euro corrective maneuver, 0,3% of GDP, once again receiving a negative response from the Minister of Economy, Giovanni Tria.
The number one of the Mef, at the end of the Ecofin, in fact reiterated that Italy will not question "the debt reduction profile", the discussion will mostly concern the timing and profile of the adjustment. But there is no mention of a corrective maneuver: “We believe that there will be no budget enlargement e nno restriction in the sense of corrective action, we have already said it – explained the minister -. It is probable that the 0,3 gap will be filled, and if it is not filled we will see, we will discuss the final balance in the spring”. However, Tria assured that “there will be no trend reversal as regards structural adjustment. The measure and the times are the only ones in question. It is not in question that the adjustment will continue ”.
