The recovery of the Italian economy "continues gradually" and the GDP should have grown by 0,8% in 2015, a result achieved with +0,2% in the fourth quarter. The Bank of Italy estimates it in its latest Economic Bulletin.
The boost from exports, which after four years of driving force are feeling the effects of the weakness of non-European markets, is being replaced by that of domestic demand. Via Nazionale predicts that the recovery will gain momentum in 2016 with a 1,5% increase in GDP. The following year, growth will continue "with a similar intensity".
Forecasts are in line with those of July but the contribution of various factors changes: less driven by exports and more from within. There is also the contribution of the expansionary measures of the Stability Law. However, the risks to growth "are mainly downwards", observes the Bank of Italy, and the cause is the international situation: a slowdown in China and geopolitical tensions which could have repercussions on the confidence of households and businesses.
Inflation will remain very low this year, to then rise again to over 1% in 2017. In detail, consumer prices, measured by the harmonized Ipca index, should rise "very gradually, from 0,1% in 2015 to 0,3% this year and 1,2% next year”. Net of the more volatile components, prices will grow "by 0,7% in 2016 and by 0,9% in 2017".
The credit situation is also improving and new non-performing loans are reducing for banks: “The dynamics of loans to the private sector strengthened in the autumn. Business loans grew for the first time in nearly four years.
Finally, according to Via Nazionale, the labor market is gradually improving and in 2017 unemployment will return below 11%: "The expectations of companies on the employment situation are cautiously optimistic". The unemployment rate, from 11,9% in 2015, should decrease to 11,1% this year and 10,7% next.
