The Bank of Italy raises its growth estimates for the Italian economy, thanks to the consolidation of the recovery driven by domestic demand. The quarterly Economic Bulletin of via Nazionale notes, however, how the rate of expansion is still lower than the European average. In the fourth quarter of 2017, GDP would have grown by 0,4% with an estimate for the year that grows at 1,5% to slow down to +1,4% this year.
The forecast extends to the two-year period '19-'20 with an indication of an expansion of 1,2%. At the end of the period, however, the gap created by the worst recession in the history of the united kingdom will not yet be filled: GDP would still be around 1,5% lower than the 2007 level, with a recovery of around 9/10 of the fall suffered between 2008 and 2013.
In terms of prices, however, inflation would drop temporarily this year and then go back up gradually. The decline forecast for 2018 (to 1,1% on average for the year) is mainly attributable to the exhaustion of the effect of the increase in energy and food prices recorded at the beginning of 2017. In the two-year period 2019-20, however, it should recovery, with inflation at +1,5% every year.
