And the day of the awakening of the badgers came. Yes, because yesterday, thanks to the data on German inflation, writes Giuseppe Sersale, strategist of Anthilia, "suddenly the Eurozone yield curves came out of hibernation". In Europe, the anticipations on German inflation, expected to rise to 1,8%, one step away from the ECB's objectives, acted as the detonator. The echo on the stock exchanges and on the bond market was immediate, with the sharp rise in the yield of the German Bund, to 0,38% from 0,33%
THE BEIGE BOOK CONFIRMS US GROWTH
American data contributed to fueling the tension: the US locomotive accelerates, as witnessed by the growth of GDP (+3,3%) and confirmed in the evening by the latest Beige Book of 2017: "Price pressures have increased", the report reads that, while acknowledging that wage growth "remains modest", it notes "a generalized difficulty on the part of employers in finding qualified personnel at various skill levels".
In short, there is the air of an increase in the cost of money, far beyond the prudent orientation anticipated on Monday by Jerome Powell, future president of the Fed. Janet Yellen, yesterday, also sent out a sign of concern: the increase in the deficit, amplified by the forthcoming tax reform, it risks making interventions to finance the debt necessary in the future. You paid the price for the Nasdaq, the most leveraged market, which yesterday recorded the highest losses in the last three months to the benefit of financials.
BITCOIN MISSILE CRASHES: -21%
The feeling is that something is moving under the so far too flat surface of the markets, while the crazy dance of bitcoin continues, yesterday it rose beyond the $11 barrier before a very violent about-face at 9.760: -21% in one hour or a little more. A ballet destined to accentuate in the next few days: on December 11, trading on the future of virtual currency will begin on the Chicago Stock Exchange: the big names, starting with Goldman Sachs, are preparing the artillery.
THE CHIP LANDSLIDE CONTINUES IN ASIA. AND STM LOSES 6,7%
The crisis in the tech sector continued this morning on Asian stock exchanges. In Hong Kong (-1,6%) the giant Tencent (-2,6%) and AAC (-4,1%), Apple's supplier, lost ground. The CSI 300 index of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets lost 0,7%. Taiwan -1,3%, Mumbai -0,6%.
New landslide in Seoul for the chip giants: Samsung -2,3% and Hynix -4,3%. The won is under fire (-0,8%), despite the rate hike, the first for six years.
The Japanese stock markets showed modest growth: Topix +0,3%, Nikkei +0,2% thanks to the decline in the yen. In October, industrial production rose again by 0,5%, less than expected.
NASDAQ IN FREE FALL, BANKS FLY
The Wall Street session was eventful, characterized by the rapid migration from the technology sector to the financial sector. The Dow Jones rose (+0,44%), the S&P 500 index balanced (-0,04%), held back by the heavy drop in the tech sector (-2,6%, the worst session in the last five months) . The Nasdaq is also under fire (-1,27%).
Losses between 2 and 4% for the digital giants: Amazon, Apple, Alphabet and Facebook. Netflix did worse (-5,5%). The drop in semiconductors (Sox index -4%) also caused victims in Piazza Affari: Stm left 6,8% on the ground.
Opposite script for financials, which, supported by the expectation of a rise in interest rates, have experienced the best day since the day of the election of Donald Trump: JP Morgan is up 2,3%, Wells Fargo +2%.
STABLE OIL, TODAY THE OPEC SUMMIT
Washington's political scene is always active. On the eve of the tax reform vote, Republicans are still divided over budget cuts. Meanwhile Trump, while grappling with the Korean crisis, has found a way to raise the tone of the controversy with the Muslim world by publishing an anti-Islam tweet from an English far-right group.
On the day of the OPEC meeting in Vienna, Brent-type oil changed hands at 63,5 dollars a barrel, up 0,5%, after closing yesterday down 0,8%.
MILAN DEFLATED IN THE FINAL. MAXI IPO IN FRANKFURT
The new records of Wall Street, also driven by the upward revision of the US GDP have not warmed up the European lists. Indeed, in the last half hour of trading, the Stock Exchanges, pushed down by tensions on interest rates and sales on technology, canceled all the day's gains.
Piazza Affari (+0,15%) nonetheless closed in positive territory at 22.325 points. Frankfurt (+0,02%), the most exposed to the chip sector, also canceled the rise.
Siemens has announced the forthcoming listing of the Healthcare division on the German Stock Exchange, a 40 billion IPO, the most important since 1996 on the Frankfurt market, which is preferred over London.
Paris +0,14%. The exception is Madrid (+1,14%). London dropped sharply (-0,90%), weighed down by the robust recovery of the pound, to 0,883 against the euro from 0,897 yesterday: the agreement on the divorce allowance between Great Britain and the European Union seems to have been finalised. London would have to commit to paying 50 billion euros, plus taking on another 50 billion euros of liabilities.
GOLDMAN SACHS CHOOSES (ALSO) MILAN
The divorce of the United Kingdom from the EU will also benefit Milan. Goldman Sachs, anticipates Reuters, is ready to sign a lease for a new office in Milan that will significantly increase its presence in Italy in view of Britain's exit from the European Union. The new space, intended to accommodate more than 100 people, will be just a few steps from the Duomo: employees in Italy will thus increase by almost six times (from the current 20 people).
THE BUND NEARS 0,40%, BTP AT 1,80%
Closing down for the Italian bond market, dragged down, like the rest of the government bonds from the euro zone, by the rain of sales on the Bund after the reading beyond expectations of the preliminary German inflation for November.
The Italian 1,80-year bond closes with a yield in the 1,78% area from 0,39% at the end of Tuesday's session. The yield on the 0,34-year Bund rose to 10% from 141%, recording the most marked daily rise in three weeks. The differential with the same maturity of the Bund decreased to the minimum for about a year, reached at the beginning of November, narrowing to 144 basis points from XNUMX points.
The Italian Treasury sold out yesterday's auction with the assignment of 1,75 billion euros in 10-year BTPs in August 2027 and 1,75 billion in the Ccteu in April 2025: the 1,73-year rate fell to XNUMX. XNUMX%, minimum since the end of October.
The last appointment with the 2017 issues will be the annual Bot auction on Friday the 10th, given that those at the end of the month already rule on 2018.
IN 2017 THE TREASURY COLLECTED MORE THAN 400 BILLION
According to Reuters calculations, the issues made by the Treasury this year are just over 400 billion euros. In 2018, for the first time after three years, the balance between maturities and the new offer, considering the purchases made by the ECB, will return positive, for around 20 billion, according to the estimates of some analysts.
At the end of 2018, according to the forecasts of Piero Grilli of Banca Akros, the Italian 2,5-year rate should settle in the 0,8% area (discounting the pre-election turmoil) while that of the Bund will rise to the 170% area. The spread should therefore go back up towards XNUMX points.
BANKS RAISE THEIR HEADS. EU SUPERVISION LOWERES IT
In Europe too, the rise in yields favored the banking sector. The sector index rose by 1,6%. The rebound in Italy was more modest +0.75%. Today, if confirmed, Reuters' indiscretion could provide fresh oxygen to the recovery of Italian credit institutions: the new ECB rules on NPLs, which should enter into force on 1 January, will postpone by a few months or even of one year, thus allowing the banks to process the findings on the proposals for the coverage of non-performing loans more calmly. Danielle Nouy, number one in banking supervision, thus allegedly gave in to pressure from the European Parliament (and from Italy in particular).
Meanwhile, two Italian institutes have brilliantly passed the Frankfurt exams: Bper (+ 4,3%) and believe (+4%) have in fact announced that, according to data as of 30 September last, they can boast a Cet1 (common equity tier) significantly higher than the minimum requirement required by the ECB for 2018. In particular, Bper already boasts a Cet higher than 14 % against a request of 8,125%.
The Bigs are also on positive ground: Unicredit + 0,8% Understanding + 1,9% Mediobanca +0,96%. On positive ground also the Valtellinese credit (+0,3%). Carige unchanged at 0,0101 euros (but rights plummeting -50%).
In asset management, FinecoBank +3,3%, to the new historical record. General Bank + 2,43%.
SUPERSTAR UTILITIES. ACEA TAKES FLIGHT
The recovery in interest rates favored utilities. The Stoxx index of the sector is the second best European sector since the beginning of the year with a +21,4%. It does even better Enel: +1,4%, 5,48 euros, to the new high since 2008 5,48 euros. The increase since the beginning of the year is 30%.
In great evidence That (+11%), best title of the day. Kepler Cheuvreux and Mediobanca, the day after the presentation of the new business plan, raised their recommendation. It also advances Iren +1,6%: by Christmas the green light could come from the most important municipalities that control Acam La Spezia, to transfer control.
It also advances Atlantia (+ 1,5%).
SOGEFI ALSO GOES INTO ORBIT
Among the industrialists, the rebound of Buzzi (+ 2,5%). Fiat Chrysler +0,5%. The Melfi production plant, from which the 500X and the Renegade come from, will be closed for a week longer than expected. In the automotive sector it shines Sogefi (+9%): Banca Akros changed the recommendation to Buy from accumulated.
Instead, it's declining Luxottica (-0,72%): Banca Imi reduced the target price from 53,6 to 52,7 euro, confirming the hold recommendation. Analysts don't see significant upside for the stock in the near term. In contrast too Telecom Italy (-1%).
