Unicredit is ready to take the field in the banking game of the century. The institute, writes the Financial Times this morning, has developed an offer for Commerzbank as an alternative to merger between the Bavarian institute and Deutsche Bank, taking advantage of the increasingly strong resistance to the operation, both from trade union and political sides. The Unicredit plan provides for entry into the capital of Commerzbank, which has a capitalization of 9 billion, and the subsequent merger with HypoVereinsbank, its subsidiary on the other side of the Rhine.
HVB ALTERNATIVE TO DEUTSCHE BANK: BERLIN WILL DECIDE
Of course, the operation would require the backing of the State, a 15% shareholder of Commerzbank, but the obstacle could prove to be less difficult than expected. The combination has more industrial logic than the one with Deutsche Bank and should not lead to significant job cuts. The Bank, although controlled by the Milanese parent company, would remain German to all intents and purposes. The project, to be decided in the short term, is probably the basis of the sharp increases in Unicredit shares (+3,3% yesterday). The indiscretion, which sounds like confirmation of Jean-Paul Mustier's strategies for the creation of a large pan-European banking group, is the classic icing on the cake of the markets, intoxicated by a sum of positive factors that push the lists towards new highs.
ON ASIA AND WALL STREET, BUT FAR FROM HIGHS
The negotiations between the US and China on tariffs seem to have reached the decisive turning point: important details are missing but there is an agreement in principle, suggests Larry Kudlow, Donald Trump's economic adviser.
Even on the Brexit front, the picture seems more serene: the distances between Theresa May and the Labor Party remain, but an agreement to avoid the "no deal" seems possible. Markets cheered, even as data on private industry jobs signal that the US economy is taking a few hits. Better this way: too much euphoria can hurt.
Asian stock exchanges are mixed in the final session, but the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan index is at its eight-month high.
Tokyo's Nikkei is at parity, Hong Kong's Hang Seng loses 0,5%, the CSI 300 of Shanghai and Shenzhen lists gains 0,5%, Sydney is down 0,9%.
GHOSN RETURNS TO PRISON
Carlos' judicial odyssey continues Ghosn, former leader of Nissan-Renault, returned to jail yesterday due to the arrival of a new arrest warrant from the Japanese judges, the fourth in a row: the new charge concerns the misappropriation of funds in Oman, used to pay for a yacht.
Wall Street up but far from the highs of the day. S&P 500 +0,21% and Nasdaq +0,6% celebrate fifth consecutive rise. Dow Jones +0,15%.
OIL UNCHANGED, SEMICONDUCTOR BOOM
The semiconductor index flies (+2,30%). AMD rallied 8,5%. Intel +2%.
Brent oil remained unchanged this morning at $69,3 a barrel-Yesterday it closed down 0,1%, held back by the unexpected jump in US strategic crude inventories.
Retrieve the euro on the dollar The euro dollar. This morning the exchange rate is at 1,124 (+0,1%). The pound is flat against the euro, after the British Parliament voted against the possibility of a drastic separation from the European Union (no deal Brexit). Better-than-expected European services sector data also supports the single currency.
BUSINESS PLACE +18,5% SINCE JANUARY. SUPERSTAR AZIMUTH
Well yesterday all the price lists of the Old Continent. The FtseMib index (+1,08%, 21.755,88 points) closed sharply higher, on values it had not seen since mid-August. The performance since the beginning of the year improves to 18,50% and is well ahead of the Eurozone average: Eurostoxx index +14,3%.
The five best blue chips since January are: Azimut +61%, Saipem +45%, Juventus +44%, Ferrari +39% and Leonardo +38%.
FRANKFURT FLY TOO, BUND ABOVE ZERO
Leading the European rally was Frankfurt (+1,76%). German lawmakers will block any attempts to invest public money in the lender that could arise from the merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank, a deal that would require up to 10 billion euros in new capital, an official said. "The new bank will probably need new capital: we will not be able to approve that the state finances it further", explained the chairman of the Finance Committee of the Bundestag.
Madrid (+1,25%) and Paris (+0,84%) are also on positive ground. London is more backward (+0,38%), which yesterday reached its highest level since the beginning of October.
However, the good tone of the markets did not translate into a lowering of the spread also because the yield on the ten-year German Bund returned above zero after having touched its lowest level since 2016 at -0,10% in recent days. In 2018, the 1,2-year Bund gained 2019%, one of the best performers in the eurozone at the bond level. Starting from 2,5, due to the further drop in the cost of money, we have come close to +XNUMX%.
SPREAD TO 255 POINTS, TOWARDS A XNUMX-YEAR GREEK
At the end of the session, the Btp/Bund spread narrowed to 255 basis points (after an intraday low of 249) from 258 yesterday evening. The 2,54-year yield closed in the 2,52% area, from XNUMX% in the previous session.
Greece is preparing to return to the capital market in the coming months, with the intention of repaying in advance up to 4 billion euros of costly loans obtained in the past from the International Monetary Fund. The operation, according to government sources, should be completed by the end of the second quarter.
ITALY, GROWTH TARGETS REVISED DOWNWARDS
While the government is preparing to lower the 2019 growth targets to +0,3/+0,4% from the previous +1%, there are surprising signs of an awakening of the Italian economy. Services activity as calculated by IHS/Markit in March reached its highest level since last September at 53,1 points, from 50,4 the previous year and against estimates of 50,8. The data derives from a survey among the purchasing managers of Italian companies. The composite PMI index, which monitors the combined performance of the manufacturing and services sectors, is also growing. In March, the indicator rose to 51,5 points from 49,6 in February, against estimates at 49,8. Quota 50 represents the discriminating threshold between expansion and contraction of the economic cycle.
BREMBO FLYES (+7,2%) IN VIEW OF AN ALLIANCE
The entire European automotive sector is buzzing with expectations of an agreement between China and the US on duties. Eurostoxx Auto index +2%. In evidence Brembo (+7,25%) supported by the statements of the chairman Alberto Bombassei, who said he was willing to go below 50% by diluting his share in the hypothesis of a merger project. Currently the entrepreneur controls 53,5% directly, 2,6% is owned by the same company as a result of the buyback.
Fiat Chrysler +0,8%. In the United States, passenger car registrations fell 3% in March. FCA brands close the month down 7,3%.
The other industrialists are effervescent. Pirelli scores a leap of 3,4%, Prysmian +2,2%. Cnh Industrial +2,85% after the confirmation of the forthcoming presentation of the new industrial plan. Sogefi also stands out (+5,56%).
STM IS THE BEST STOCK
The leading stock was Stm (+5,79%), yesterday the best blue chip: US-China talks favor the semiconductor sector.
Banks go up. The sector index marks +1,6%, in line with the European index. Understanding +1,4%.
Securities in the asset management sector are also highlighted. Azimuth +2%. Chairman Pietro Giuliani, after saying that the January-March 2019 period was one of the best in the company's history, revealed that he is aiming for an equal merger with an operator in the South America and Asia area. FinecoBank +2%, Banca Generali +1,9%.
Anima Holding goes against the trend (-2%). Citigroup downgraded the rating to Neutral.
Generals +0,5%. The confirmation of Gabriele Galateri is included in the Mediobanca list for the renewal of the board of directors. Barclays cuts the target price.
ONLY ACEA SHINES AMONG THE UTILITIES
Among the utilities, the Acea +4% increase continues, still positive after the industrial plan to 2022, released on Tuesday. On the other hand, A2A retreats (-2,61%) after the presentation of the business plan. Enel (+0,1%), Hera (-0,6%) and Snam (-0,5%) were also weak.
MEDIASET +3,1%, LIKE THE EUROPEAN POLO
Out of the main basket, very positive session for Mediaset (+3,11%) after the declarations of Fedele Confalonieri on the hypothesis of creating a pan-European pole of generalist TVs.
De'Longhi -1,5%. Berenberg cuts judgment to Hold da Buy.
Safilo (+3%) announced that it has received an offer for its US brand Solstice, a sale likely by the end of the year.
Salini Impregilo (+1,5%) acquired the majority stake in Cossi Costruzioni from Condotte d'Acqua.
