They are flat European banks (the Eurostoxx sector index -0,2%) after the leap forward on Wednesday following the publication of the Von der Leyen plan anti-recession. They prevail the benefits, justified by the difficulties, already admitted by Angela Merkel, of getting the so-called "frugal states" to digest the operation.
It's an exception Business Square, galvanized by the turn of Brussels, which pushes away the shadows on the indices of the consumer confidence (dropped to its lowest since December 2013, at 94) e of businesses (plunged to its lowest level ever, at 71 points). But the ghosts of the crisis, it is hoped, can be chased away into nightmares if Europe, thanks to a strong injection of capital, is able to demonstrate that it has understood the US lesson on bank support, the first step in the recovery, as the Tarp interventions. Even in these days, Wall Street's desire for revenge passes through the awakening of credit securities: Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan (+5,8% yesterday), he announced on Wednesday evening, with the stock market closed, that the earnings of the corporate and investment division are set to rebound by an abundant 50% in the second quarter.
Europe, with Italy in the lead, is experiencing a very different situation. But the initial situation (the sector index is bringing up the rear of the market) justifies the hope of a rebound, which is being felt this morning in Piazza Affari, starting from Bper e bpm (both +1%, after an even more lively start) to continue with Unicredit (+1,7%), who also contemplates engaging in a tug of war with Understanding. In fact, the hypothesis of a descent into the field of Jean Pierre Mustier alongside Ubi to face the Tender Offer from Intesa cannot be excluded. But other novelties are also looming: from the imminent transformation of Popular Sondrio in Spa to the equally close accommodation of Mount Paschi.
Beyond the endless game of credit risk, which could soon take on a new face with the arrival of the first cross-border operations (in the front row again Unicredit), the "Ursula season" could mark big news on the credit front bail-in. European Supervision is carrying out an analysis to calculate the impact of the health emergency on supervised banks, the results of which should be ready in late summer/early autumn. Among the possible solutions to support the banking system there would also be the establishment of a bad bank (called Asset management company), even if the banks seem able to face the most adverse scenario.
Andrea Enrico, head of the European Supervisory Authority, confirmed the conduct of the stress test, underlining that, based on the results, different options will be studied. At the moment, the ECB has not presented any plan for the creation of an AMC, but it does not rule out a European plan for banks that should be undercapitalised after the stress tests. As the US experience teaches, there can be no talk of recovery without a solid banking system.
