La forecast of the trend of the Gross Domestic Product it is the subject, as always in Italy, of animated discussions with obvious contrasts which often have little economic analysis becoming, for the most part, an element of political opposition.
The data for the third quarter of 2018, records a worrying zero, a sign of a situation of stagnation which is causing the annual trend to drop from 1,2 to 0,8 per cent, moving away from the forecast of +1,5 per cent for 2019. The first negative data of the last three years shows a GDP that is affected by the decline in industrial production already reported in the previous quarter. A performance, not isolated in the European panorama, which does not bode well. Many analysts start talking dthe first signs of a new “recession”, albeit temporary.
One element, however, is consolidated in Italy. As in the past, the Italian economy continues to be driven by the industrial districts and by small and medium enterprises which represent 70% of the added value produced and in which 80% of employment is still concentrated today. A confirmation, explained by the structure of the Italian economy, to which Credito Popolare also contributes.
Precisely in the areas where the weight of SMEs is greater, the Cooperative Banks are more present with a constant action in favor of local production activities that allow Italy to continue, despite everything, to be the second manufacturing country in Europe after Germany . Not only do Popolari show a higher level of proximity in the areas where small and medium-sized enterprises operate through their network of branches, but they concentrate more than two-thirds of loans and deposits in these areas against an average that for the other banks – those with a greater concentration in urban centers or in territories characterized by the presence of large companies – stops at 30 per cent.
Il link between PMI and Credito Popolare, is based not only on a long tradition, but also on a precise sustainability financing policy. With the interest rate on loans to SMEs practiced by the Popolari in June which was less than 1,9%, thus resulting lower than the system figure. A policy that is also applied for loans to households for the purchase of homes, the rate of which is below the average figure by around 15 basis points, in line with previous months. A figure, that of the lower cost of loans for one's customers, which was also recently appreciated by the Governor of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, who recalled how in Italy the increase in the spread, has produced an increase in interest rates on loans of about 20 basis points which, on the other hand, is not reflected in the Credito Popolare institutes.
Loans at lower rates, therefore, but also an expansion of the credit disbursed to customers with 20 billion euros of new loans to small and medium-sized enterprises and 10 billion euros to households, especially mortgages. These are results which, seen as a whole, reinforce the centrality of the role of Credito Popolare for the Italian economy. Preserving the biodiversity of the financial intermediaries which has ensured the development of the country together with social cohesion within the communities is a necessity for the good of the economy. It becomes a priority in the negative and recessionary phases of the economy, such as the one that has just passed and the one that, as it seems, will characterize the coming months. The counter-cyclical action that local banks have been able to implement in the general interest of the real economy with long-term policies based on links with customers and local areas will still be essential.
°°° The author is the Secretary General of the National Association of Popular Banks
